Interesting QB ranking

[percyhoward]

Aaron Rodgers: 89.72
Peyton Manning: 89.54
Roger Staubach: 89.14
Joe Montana: 86.39
Otto Graham: 86.32
Steve Young: 86.16
Cecil Isbell: 86.00
Len Dawson: 85.48
Sid Luckman: 84.44
Tom Brady: 82.54
Daryle Lamonica: 81.99
Tony Romo: 80.85
Norm Van Brocklin: 79.22
Earl Morrall: 77.08
Johnny Unitas: 76.84
Kurt Warner: 76.84
Fran Tarkenton: 76.15
Matt Ryan: 76.03
Dan Marino: 76.02
Sonny Jurgensen: 75.82
Bart Starr: 75.32

Section444 made a post in another thread about how Matt Ryan ranked ahead of some HOF players on a list that combined career rankings in NFL passer rating, ESPN's Total QBR, and Football Outsiders' DVOA.

Something seemed fishy about a list of all-time great QB that did not include Montana, or Staubach, or Manning. Turns out, the Falcon fan who copied it left the first 17 names off the list. Ryan is 18th, not first.

The list is well thought out, as it eliminates cross-era interference by using rankings instead of raw ratings. All #1 QB of each year are counted equally -- whether their raw rating was 80.0 or 120.0 that year.

 

[CCBoy]

Just looking at the names and their placements, would have me doubting a lot of the value to that list.

 

[percyhoward]

Just looking at the names and their placements, would have me doubting a lot of the value to that list.

Active players and QB who played fewer seasons will inevitably be overvalued, because these are yearly averages. Allowing for that, the basic idea of using yearly rankings instead of the raw rating is a good one.

And you can "clean up" the list by setting minimum amount of seasons (which he didn't do), or by taking only the player's 5 or 10 best seasons, as was done in the lists at his website. QBS2P is 5 best seasons, QBS2D is 10 best.


http://quarterbackscore.webs.com/database

 

[CCBoy]

Thanks for explaining the additional data significance...as always.

Good stuff, Percy.

Using those comparative charts, it is easier to understand why Tony Romo has only recently become an appreciated quarterback.

 

[percyhoward]

Thanks for explaining the additional data context. cance...as always.

Good stuff, Percy.

Using those comparative charts, it is easier to understand why Tony Romo has only recently become an appreciated quarterback.

His consistency has snuck up on people who haven't been looking at his career in this context. Two more top 10 seasons will put him way, way up on QBS2D, for example.

Even if Romo retired next week, you could take the "master list" in the OP, set a minimum of eight 10-game seasons, compensate for AFL interference, and guys like Morrall and Lamonica are gone. Without affecting Romo at all.

There are other tweaks that could be made (add playoff games), but this guy is on the right track because he understands how to get around cross-era confusion while still valuing player over team, and performance over perception. Keeping it real, in other words.

 

[Garrettop]

I would definitely be interested in more analyses like this one, especially once further cleaned up.

 

[AdamJT13]

It should be noted that QBR dates to only 2006 and DVOA dates to only 1989, so only passer rating is used previous to 1989, and only passer rating and DVOA are used for 1989-2005.

And using rankings might "eliminate cross-era interference," but it still has its own flaws. It would be better to set a baseline score for the league average -- or a "rolling" league average over a specific period of time -- and adjust all of the other rankings accordingly.

 

[percyhoward]

And using rankings might "eliminate cross-era interference," but it still has its own flaws. It would be better to set a baseline score for the league average -- or a "rolling" league average over a specific period of time -- and adjust all of the other rankings accordingly.

As a starting point, yes. Using NFL average passer ratings for each season is a little more accurate, and I've seen a couple of lists from researchers who have done just that. I posted about one of them here about a week ago.

But that starting point is the easiest part. You still have to put a lot of thought into the various criteria that will affect the results, or else you get Greg Cook ahead of Dan Marino.

I like the direction this guy is taking the research because of the common sense elements like the 5-best and 10-best seasons, and the idea that era doesn't affect yearly rankings.

 

[5Stars]

Waiting for the one to show up...he will be here shortly. lol

 

[AdamJT13]

But that starting point is the easiest part. You still have to put a lot of thought into the various criteria that will affect the results, or else you get Greg Cook ahead of Dan Marino.

The only way you get Greg Cook ahead of anybody is if you don't set a minimum qualification.

And you don't fiddle with the criteria to get results that match how you think or want the rankings to be. You set the ideal criteria and let the rankings fall where they may.

 

[percyhoward]

I would definitely be interested in more analyses like this one, especially once further cleaned up.

What's funny is, I've been using basically this same method (average yearly ranking over x number of best seasons) to compare QB for years in this forum. It's cool to see someone else come up with it independently, even if it's not perfect.

 

[percyhoward]

The only way you get Greg Cook ahead of anybody is if you don't set a minimum qualification.

It was actually Bob Berry, and yes that is the reason. But it looks like comparing individual ratings to league averages for the era is especially generous to the players from the mid 70s to mid 80s (Jones, White, etc). That doesn't happen in the list from the OP that compares yearly rankings instead of ratings.

 

[Longboysfan]

Aaron Rodgers: 89.72
Peyton Manning: 89.54
Roger Staubach: 89.14
Joe Montana: 86.39
Otto Graham: 86.32
Steve Young: 86.16
Cecil Isbell: 86.00
Len Dawson: 85.48
Sid Luckman: 84.44
Tom Brady: 82.54
Daryle Lamonica: 81.99
Tony Romo: 80.85
Norm Van Brocklin: 79.22
Earl Morrall: 77.08
Johnny Unitas: 76.84
Kurt Warner: 76.84
Fran Tarkenton: 76.15
Matt Ryan: 76.03
Dan Marino: 76.02
Sonny Jurgensen: 75.82
Bart Starr: 75.32

Section444 made a post in another thread about how Matt Ryan ranked ahead of some HOF players on a list that combined career rankings in NFL passer rating, ESPN's Total QBR, and Football Outsiders' DVOA.

Something seemed fishy about a list of all-time great QB that did not include Montana, or Staubach, or Manning. Turns out, the Falcon fan who copied it left the first 17 names off the list. Ryan is 18th, not first.

The list is well thought out, as it eliminates cross-era interference by using rankings instead of raw ratings. All #1 QB of each year are counted equally -- whether their raw rating was 80.0 or 120.0 that year.

I don't know... Where's McNabb?

 

[percyhoward]

Same list from the OP, but applying the filter of a minimum 6 qualifying seasons, with at least 4 of those being in the NFL. Most of this is the work of Ryan Michael.

Remember, active players have an advantage because they haven't hit the downside of their careers yet, and those seasons will (in theory) bring them down somewhat. Also, keep in mind that there are a few great QB who are not on the list because they were outstanding enough to make their case in a very short period, but their other seasons still count toward their averages. Marino, Tittle, Bradshaw, Kelly, and Aikman (who doesn't even make the top 50 because of his post-1995 seasons) all rank higher when you count only the seasons that they're really known for. A list of QB based on just their best 5 seasons, labeled "QBS2P" can be found at http://quarterbackscore.webs.com/database.

Also, postseason play is not included. I'll put together an adjusted list that includes postseason a bit later.

1 Aaron Rodgers: 89.72
2 Peyton Manning: 89.54
3 Roger Staubach: 89.14
4 Joe Montana: 86.39
5 Otto Graham: 86.32
6 Steve Young: 86.16
7 Len Dawson: 85.48
8 Sid Luckman: 84.44
9 Tom Brady: 82.54
10 Tony Romo: 80.85
11 Norm Van Brocklin: 79.22
12 Johnny Unitas: 76.84
13 Kurt Warner: 76.84
14 Fran Tarkenton: 76.15
15 Matt Ryan: 76.03
16 Dan Marino: 76.02
17 Sonny Jurgensen: 75.82
18 Bart Starr: 75.32
19 Philip Rivers: 75.11
20 Bob Griese: 74.22
21 Sammy Baugh: 73.46
22 Drew Brees: 73.39
23 Ben Roethlisberger: 73.24
24 Ken Anderson: 73.03
25 Dan Fouts: 72.79
26 Bert Jones: 72.38
27 Charlie Conerly: 71.96
28 Tommy Thompson: 71.20
29 Chad Pennington: 71.17
30 Milt Plum: 69.89
31 Trent Green: 69.76
32 Y.A. Tittle: 67.82
33 Craig Morton: 66.96
34 Joe Theismann: 66.95
35 Don Meredith: 65.31
36 Roman Gabriel: 65.30
37 Steve Bartkowski: 65.07
38 Jeff Garcia: 64.92
39 Terry Bradshaw: 64.88
40 Danny White: 64.79
41 Bob Waterfield: 64.61
42 Matt Schaub: 64.43
43 Billy Wade: 63.84
44 Billy Kilmer: 63.61
45 Neil Lomax: 62.94
46 John Hadl: 62.39
47 Steve McNair: 62.39
48 Ken Stabler: 61.33
49 Jim Kelly: 61.08
50 Brad Johnson: 60.94

About 85% of that comes from Michael's research. I made some adjustments, because I don't believe it makes any sense to put Culpepper (72.83 in 5 qualifying seasons) ahead of Fouts (72.79 in 12 qualifying seasons). Here's who got filtered out, and why:
Cecil Isbell: 86.00 (only 2 qualifying seasons)
Daryle Lamonica: 81.99 (only 3 qualifying NFL seasons)
Earl Morrall: 77.08 (only 4 qualifying seasons)
Russell Wilson: 74.65 (only 3 qualifying seasons)
Frank Ryan: 72.41 (only 5 qualifying seasons)
Daunte Culpepper: 72.83 (only 5 qualifying seasons)
Frank Filchock: 62.50 (only 2 qualifying seasons)


@hipfake08 McNabb 56.50

There are 22 modern era quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame who are there because of their QB play. The only three who don't make this top 50 list are Aikman, Moon, and Elway. Favre is at #52.

 

[CCBoy]

I still have to be amazed with how well both Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers are doing here.

 

[visionary]

Interesting read Percy and Adam
Where is Troy on this list (speaking of under appreciated QBs)?

 

[5Stars]

Interesting read Percy and Adam
Where is Troy on this list (speaking of under appreciated QBs)?

That is a good question....?

 

[percyhoward]

Since 2006. Each number represents points earned based on an inversion of the player's rank for that season. A score of 32 means he ranked 1st according to that measurement that season. In 2014, Romo ranked 1st in passer rating (32 points), 1st in QBR (32 points), and 3rd in DVOA (30 points). The figures in bold are the average points earned per season since 2006, when ESPN first used QBR.

Passer Rating (NFL)
1 Rodgers 27 29 30 32 32 28 31 29.86
2 Manning 32 29 28 27 23 31 31 29 28.75
3 Brees 30 22 29 32 21 31 25 27 27 27.11
4 Romo 28 28 25 25 29 23 25 32 26.88
5 Brady 24 32 24 32 30 27 16 28 26.63
6 Rivers 25 15 32 30 31 22 22 29 21 25.22
7 Roethlisberger 12 31 9 28 28 23 26 24 30 23.44
8 Ryan 22 13 22 25 28 21 22 21.86

Total QBR (ESPN)
1 Manning 32 31 32 32 31 32 32 30 31.50
2 Rodgers 25 27 30 32 29 28 31 28.86
3 Brady 29 32 23 32 30 31 23 29 28.63
4 Brees 30 21 24 31 25 31 25 30 27 27.11
5 Ryan 31 19 29 29 30 24 24 26.57
6 Romo 31 28 13 21 28 22 22 32 24.63
7 Rivers 25 13 27 30 23 24 6 31 23 22.44
8 Roethlisberger 16 29 8 22 26 23 21 17 28 21.11

DVOA (Football Outsiders)
1 Manning 32 31 31 28 27 31 32 28 30.00
2 Brady 23 32 31 32 30 32 22 27 28.63
3 Brees 31 21 30 30 23 31 28 28 26 27.56
4 Rodgers 19 24 29 32 29 27 32 27.43
5 Romo 28 27 22 26 29 23 23 30 26.00
6 Ryan 29 18 26 26 25 24 24 24.58
7 Rivers 24 13 32 32 30 25 11 30 23 24.44
8 Roethlisberger 18 20 6 25 31 22 22 21 29 21.56

Combined Average Score, 2006-14
1 Manning 90.25
2 Rodgers 86.15
3 Brady 83.89
4 Brees 81.78
5 Romo 77.51
6 Ryan 73.01
7 Rivers 72.10
8 Roethlisberger 66.11

 

[percyhoward]

Where is Troy on this list )?

That is a good question....?

There are a few great QB who are not on the list because they were outstanding enough to make their case in a very short period, but their other seasons still count toward their averages. Marino, Tittle, Bradshaw, Kelly, and Aikman (who doesn't even make the top 50 because of his post-1995 seasons) all rank higher when you count only the seasons that they're really known for. A list of QB based on just their best 5 seasons, labeled "QBS2P" can be found at http://quarterbackscore.webs.com/database.

The more seasons a QB played when he wasn't a top 10 passer that season, the more it will bring down his average season. That's why the original author compiled alternative lists for "5 best" and "10 best seasons," that leave out the years that the player isn't best known for. There's no line that can really be drawn that determines how many seasons are enough in order for a player to make his mark. A player who ranks highly on the "master list" that includes every season obviously had a distinguished career, but there are a few players whose careers don't fit that pattern of consistency over a long period who were legends nevertheless.

 

[visionary]

Thanx for the clarification Percy
Makes sense

Aikman always seems to get the shaft in these rankings based on stats but those of us who watched him live know how great he was

Look at how high Young is on this list but no way I take him over Aikman