Interesting Run Stat

[Bleu Star]

Still waiting for people to realize we have such a high ypc mark precisely because we don't run that frequently.

It'll come in time.

or perhaps by chance it's simply because when entrusted to punch mouths, our offensive line does just that... That'll come in time too. You have until midnight Sunday night.

 

[percyhoward]

This is the percentage of plays that were converted into 1st down or TD.

Conversion percentages
in red zone: 37.7% (3rd)
inside opp 10: 46.4% (5th)
4th qtr or OT, leading: 19.0% (15th)
3rd or 4th down, 3 or less to go: 64.3% (21st)

 

[percyhoward]

Still waiting for people to realize we have such a high ypc mark precisely because we don't run that frequently.

It'll come in time.

Actually, running more doesn't lower our yards per attempt.
16 or fewer attempts 4.27 (5 games)
17-25 attempts: 4.67 (5 games)
more than 25 attempts: 4.56 (5 games)

And much more importantly, it doesn't lower our success rate either.
16 or fewer attempts 25.7% (5 games)
17-25 attempts: 27.2% (5 games)
more than 25 attempts: 27.1% (5 games)

That success rate in games with >25 attempts would rank 2nd in the NFL. This has been a year when we needed to run better in obvious running situations, and run more in any situation.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

This is week 17 of the season and you think you'll find out that we are not a good run team because of one game ?

Let me ask you a question. Why do people thin Emmitt Smith was a great back ? because he had one great game ?

Come on. Get a little serious here.

Throttle back a little, homie. It's all good.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Actually, running more doesn't lower our yards per attempt.
16 or fewer attempts 4.27 (5 games)
17-25 attempts: 4.67 (5 games)
more than 25 attempts: 4.56 (5 games)

And much more importantly, it doesn't lower our success rate either.
16 or fewer attempts 25.7% (5 games)
17-25 attempts: 27.2% (5 games)
more than 25 attempts: 27.1% (5 games)

That success rate in games with >25 attempts would rank 2nd in the NFL. This has been a year when we needed to run better in obvious running situations, and run more in any situation.

You misunderstand.

First of all...I love the arbitrary 16 to 17 yard cutoff for this statistic. Those are always fun.

But the actual point which you missed is that we are a pass first offense. We know it. Other teams know it. That means the vast majority of our opponents scheme to take away the pass allowing us to be more effective on the ground. If our offense was different and we tried to be a run first offense...that is we rush as much as a Carolina or San Francisco or Seattle...the results would be disastrous. We simply cannot run into loaded boxes and don't try to...hence the infamous "smoke" debate.

It's why we run better out of the spread look than from traditional looks.

I sometimes wonder if people actually follow this team.

 

[percyhoward]

You misunderstand.

First of all...I love the arbitrary 16 to 17 yard cutoff for this statistic. Those are always fun.

But the actual point which you missed is that we are a pass first offense. We know it. Other teams know it. That means the vast majority of our opponents scheme to take away the pass allowing us to be more effective on the ground. If our offense was different and we tried to be a run first offense...that is we rush as much as a Carolina or San Francisco or Seattle...the results would be disastrous. We simply cannot run into loaded boxes and don't try to...hence the infamous "smoke" debate.

It's why we run better out of the spread look than from traditional looks.

I sometimes wonder if people actually follow this team.

Rushing attempts (those were attempts, not yards) were divided like that because that's how the season naturally divides into three equal parts. The idea is to compare equal sample sizes of 5 games each. Nothing arbitrary about it. You can divide it up differently if you want, but all that would do is give you a different or uneven number of samples.

We're obviously a pass-heavy offense whose running game benefits from the threat of the pass (see post #22). Hence, my point about needing to run better in obvious running situations. That bottom line from the very post you quoted was based on the data from the previous post, which I'm guessing you didn't read, so you missed the reference and the entire point. Here it is again.

4th qtr or OT, leading: 19.0% (15th)
3rd or 4th down, 3 or less to go: 64.3% (21st)

You're right that we use the pass to set up the run; you were simply wrong in concluding that this means our average goes down the more we run. It doesn't. Two separate concepts. Our per-carry averages and our success rates have not suffered when we've run more often. There was plenty of room for this team to remain "pass first" without being so pass-heavy. We should have run more this season.

 

[BIGDen]

Lol. I guess I need to change that pic.

Shut yo mouth!

 

[Reality]

There are reasons that the numbers are inflated. For example, we pass more often on third and short than run. We tend to pass the ball more the closer we get to the goal line than most teams. We tend to run the ball less when we are behind, even by only a few points, during the second half. What this does is eliminate a lot of short yardage gain runs which makes our longer runs inflate the YPC stat.

The most glaring factor though is that we are a well known pass happy team so defenses scheme around stopping the pass which makes them more vulnerable to long runs. They know (rightly so) that even if we are having success with running the ball that we will not stick with it long. In other words, it's the exception, not the norm.

Don't get me wrong. Murray has run the ball well this year and our offensive line run-blocking has improved considerably since the start of the season. I have said all season that we need to run more often than we do, especially in the second half. The problem is that our offensive coordinator gives up on the run after two consecutive short yard runs.

If we have any chance against the Eagles this weekend, we need to run the ball more than usual. We also need to avoid the very predictable habit Callahan has of running on first downs and passing on third downs, regardless of the yards needed for a first.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

There are reasons that the numbers are inflated. For example, we pass more often on third and short than run. We tend to pass the ball more the closer we get to the goal line than most teams. We tend to run the ball less when we are behind, even by only a few points, during the second half. What this does is eliminate a lot of short yardage gain runs which makes our longer runs inflate the YPC stat.

The most glaring factor though is that we are a well known pass happy team so defenses scheme around stopping the pass which makes them more vulnerable to long runs. They know (rightly so) that even if we are having success with running the ball that we will not stick with it long. In other words, it's the exception, not the norm.

Don't get me wrong. Murray has run the ball well this year and our offensive line run-blocking has improved considerably since the start of the season. I have said all season that we need to run more often than we do, especially in the second half. The problem is that our offensive coordinator gives up on the run after two consecutive short yard runs.

If we have any chance against the Eagles this weekend, we need to run the ball more than usual. We also need to avoid the very predictable habit Callahan has of running on first downs and passing on third downs, regardless of the yards needed for a first.

Exactly my point. Well said.

 

[Bleu Star]

Exactly my point. Well said.

Oh OK. So, at the end of the day, you actually agree that we need to place a heavier emphasis on the run and sticking to the plan Sunday night. I'm so glad to hear that.

 

[BigStar]

Lol. I guess I need to change that pic.

I wouldn't

 

[BigStar]

Still waiting for people to realize we have such a high ypc mark precisely because we don't run that frequently.

It'll come in time.

I would think Felix Jones stats should've taught us that. They do seem to get the "into" the flow of the running game moreso this year than previous though. It would also help curb some of those 3 and outs to save this D.

 

[theSHOW]

Throttle back a little, homie. It's all good.

And lets throttle it up on the run! I think that Klutz..D'oh....... can give Murray some room to slide through the LOS and get bunches often. I just love the fullback in this offense. Now, as if Jerrah out thunk us all again....D'oh,....... with Tony gone, he will prove the winning edge this team needed. Don't forget the 20 carries per game statistic. Dallas is 10-0 or 11-0. The teams best player is out. We are going to run.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Oh OK. So, at the end of the day, you actually agree that we need to place a heavier emphasis on the run and sticking to the plan Sunday night. I'm so glad to hear that.

Sure we need to run more. But the myth that we are some elite rushing unit if only we would commit to the run...is...well...a myth.

We can't run in obvious rushing situations. And we don't run frequently in those situations where long runs are unlikely. Therefore we have inflated YPC statistics.

Teams dont scheme to take away our run game which allows success there. If we tried to be a rush based offense and teams schemed against it...lord have mercy.

 

[CF74]

The Cowboys rank 4th in yards per carry on the ground yet they they have run the ball the 2nd fewest times in the NFL.

That is a puzzling paradox. It's no secret I am a huge DeMarco supporter. That said, this is more about the level of improvement that offensive line has undertaken this year. Three years in, Tyron Smith is playing at an all pro level. Leary has been serviceable and, when considering how we got him, he has been playing above expectations. I loved the Frederick pick from day one simply because games truly are won in the trenches. Any time we get value on either side of the line, it is a huge win for the team. In Frederick and Smith, I believe we have building blocks for a physical game changing future on the Oline.

Since replacing Waters several weeks back, Bernadeau has actually been playing solid on the line. I haven't researched the stat but it would appear to me that many of our recent run plays of 8 yards or better have been to that right side. That's saying something for Free and Bernadeau. The whole line has just been putting in a lunch pail effort over the past several weeks and deserves an immense amount of credit for placing us in this position.

Will they help us put something special together Sunday night? I wouldn't bet against those hogs. Lately, the progression of the offensive line has been a major positive. We have two cornerstones and very solid play at the other three positions. This bodes well for the future.

Lastly, Frank Pollack deserves a load of credit for successfully instilling the zone blocking scheme in Big D. For the first time in several years, we aren't railing on the Oline.

Back to the stat.. If we mix in a huge dose of the run and stick with it over the course of the game, I firmly believe this offense line will open holes for our RBs to be successful and "control" the clock Sunday night. The key will be to keep that Eagle offense on the sidelines as often as possible by using a solid run strategy. Place our defense into winnable situations. Mentally beat the Eagles defense by doing what they already know we're going to do extremely well. Line up and punch them in their collective pie holes! Mix in some short routes, screens, and play action to our weapons on the outside. This is where Garrett and Callahan get to earn a couple of new stripes.

Victory is achievable!

According to Murray, Romo was pass happy..

"DeMarco Murray, their star running back, grumbled to teammates about not getting the ball enough," Rapoport said of "NFL GameDay Morning." "He doesn't understand why Romo always seems to choose pass instead of run. ...

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...emarco-murray-tony-romo-not-seeing-eye-to-eye

 

[Bleu Star]

Yeah... And every game changing decision in history wasn't made. Therefore, our existence today is simply not possible. We are all illusions.

Thank goodness we actually had some people that explored the impossible. Had it not been for them, I wouldn't be typing on this phone with the amazing glimmer of the lightbox that shines upon my shiny dome. I would also be walking to attend a game in a couple of hours instead of driving my hundredth iteration of the model T.

Sure we need to run more. But the myth that we are some elite rushing unit if only we would commit to the run...is...well...a myth.

We can't run in obvious rushing situations. And we don't run frequently in those situations where long runs are unlikely. Therefore we have inflated YPC statistics.

Teams dont scheme to take away our run game which allows success there. If we tried to be a rush based offense and teams schemed against it...lord have mercy.

 

[Venger]