Internet Draft sites

[SMCowboy]

Can someone please explain to me the logic of using internet draft sites as the sole determination of if a player was a reach or not? Lets not forget, that the reason that these guys run the internet sites is because they are not good enough to be scouts for NFL teams. And some of these guys are ex NFL scouts. Which means they were NFL scouts, but were not good at what they did and were fired. But now we use their opinions, to determine if NFL teams drafted a player where he should have been drafted.

To put in perspective, how do we know that the "great" Larry Lancewell. Yes, the guy that people say don't let him get near Jerry Jones on draft day because he is was so bad. Isn't one of the guys or the head guy for setting up the scouting reports and determining draft positions for one of these sites. Yet, because they post their rankings on the internet, we give them more credibility than the NFL teams scouting reports?

Also, something to keep in mind, and something we can fully understand having just switched from the 4-3 to a 3-4 a few years ago. The types of players that are great players in a 3-4 may be average at best in a 4-3 scheme, and vice versa. Yet these draft boards try and list all the players by rank for both the 4-3 and 3-4 like there is not difference between the two. A guy who is to small to play DE in a 4-3 scheme is alot of time the perfect size to play the rush linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. But yet is graded as an undersized DE in the rankings and is dropped down the board because of it.

 

[Shinywalrus]

There's two ways to think about this:

1 - Are these resources good for understanding whether a player will be successful?
2 - Are these resources good for understanding where most teams intend to draft players?

Number 1, I'm sure we all agree, is pretty hazy, at best. Yeah, at the top, there are some guys who on the merits of athleticism are likely to be stars, and they're not hard to find. Other than that, though, it's extremely tough to predict success, and given the resources most of these guys have, they're just not very good at it.

Number 2, I think, is a different story. Some lists like Gosselin's are actually pretty damned accurate at predicting where players will go, in large part because they are a composite of his discussions with scouts. Undoubtedly some other lists are compiled in somewhat similar ways.

Since we do have some frame of reference for knowing the GENERAL area most scouting departments would expect players to go, we can assess an element of whether a team could have drafted a player with a less valuable pick, or whether they were successful in using a less valuable pick on a more generally highly regarded player. That doesn't mean you will end up with a good draft, although it certainly may mean that you're cognizant of a value-oriented draft strategy.

Just because someone is called a "reach", as you say, doesn't mean he will be bad...but is he any better when you spend a second rounder on him instead of a 4th?

 

[J-DOG]

Can someone please explain to me the logic of using internet draft sites as the sole determination of if a player was a reach or not? Lets not forget, that the reason that these guys run the internet sites is because they are not good enough to be scouts for NFL teams. And some of these guys are ex NFL scouts. Which means they were NFL scouts, but were not good at what they did and were fired. But now we use their opinions, to determine if NFL teams drafted a player where he should have been drafted.

To put in perspective, how do we know that the "great" Larry Lancewell. Yes, the guy that people say don't let him get near Jerry Jones on draft day because he is was so bad. Isn't one of the guys or the head guy for setting up the scouting reports and determining draft positions for one of these sites. Yet, because they post their rankings on the internet, we give them more credibility than the NFL teams scouting reports?

Also, something to keep in mind, and something we can fully understand having just switched from the 4-3 to a 3-4 a few years ago. The types of players that are great players in a 3-4 may be average at best in a 4-3 scheme, and vice versa. Yet these draft boards try and list all the players by rank for both the 4-3 and 3-4 like there is not difference between the two. A guy who is to small to play DE in a 4-3 scheme is alot of time the perfect size to play the rush linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. But yet is graded as an undersized DE in the rankings and is dropped down the board because of it.

Agree.
That's why there is always going to be pass rushers available in the draft to pro teams that use the 3-4 scheme.
For years Pittsburgh and maybe one other team were the only ones running the 3-4 defense and they would get these undersized DE's from college and just plug them into thier defense.
Chad Brown
Joey Porter
Greg Lloyd
Lamar Woodley
Clark Haggans just to name a few off the top of my head. Not sure where James Harrison played or what position he played in college.

 

[CowboyWay]

In fairness, there are NFL scouts all over the place that have no business evaluating talent. There is a reason teams like Detroit, SF, Cincy, Commanders, Jets, Atlanta, San Diego, Seattle, etc are usually awful for the last 20 years.

 

[Shinywalrus]

In fairness, there are NFL scouts all over the place that have no business evaluating talent. There is a reason teams like Detroit, SF, Cincy, Commanders, Jets, Atlanta, San Diego, Seattle, etc are usually awful for the last 20 years.

I think that has a lot more to do with the coaching situations and teams in place than it does the scouting. People always understate that, I think.

 

[SMCowboy]

There's two ways to think about this:

2 - Are these resources good for understanding where most teams intend to draft players?

Number 2, I think, is a different story. Some lists like Gosselin's are actually pretty damned accurate at predicting where players will go, in large part because they are a composite of his discussions with scouts. Undoubtedly some other lists are compiled in somewhat similar ways.

Do you really think that alot of these lists are any good at projecting draft position? Here are just of the few rankings I found where they were not even close on ranking compared to draft slot using one of the more popular ranking lists, nfldraftscout.com:
Zack Potter - Rank 186 (UDFA)
Brian Hoyer - Rank 187 (UDFA)
Cornelius Lewis - Rank 185 (UDFA)
Quan Cosby - Rank 226 (UDFA)
Nathan Brown - Rank 216 (UDFA)
Jason Watkins - Rank 180 (UDFA)
Mitch King - Rank 148 (UDFA)
Kevin Ogletree - Rank 124 (UDFA)
Derek Walker - Rank 218 (UDFA)
Duke Robinson - Rank 57 (163)
James Casey - Rank 61 (152)

I wouldn't say that they are really even all that good at projecting the draft slot of where a player will end up being drafted.....

I am not counting Goose Goselins Top 100 board, that is a completely different animal, we know that board is based off of a combination of NFL teams draft boards....