Alexander said:
He still is ascribing a voodoo mathematical analysis to what isn't an exact science. You cannot convince me you can look at a running play and determine that one offensive lineman was the sole key for the run and it was that blocking success or failure that impacted it.
Just like his statistical view of the dropped passes. There is so much that goes into a play's success or failure and rarely do raw statistics tell much of anything in the empircal sense, unless you want them to. The variables are too great and his criteria might be different from others. They are fine as an FYI, but only a fool would take these numbers and draw any sort of concrete conclusion from them.
The problem is there are two types of stats.
One is immediately measurable. The RB ran for 4 yards. You can write that number down and use it in whatever formula you want to come to whatever conclusions you want, because its hard data.
THe others are more subjective. For instance, even the most hard-core baseball stat heads usually don't rely too heavily on defensive stats like Zone Rating. The reason is that someone has to subjectively look at a particular play and decide if an "average" fielder would have gotten the ball.
That stat is really grey though. It will change depend on who is doing the judging, or even if they didn't have their coffee that morning. You sometimes come up with ridiculous results because of differing yardsticks.
This study while interesting, is also completely subjective. Somebody looked at the play and voiced their opinion on what Johnson did, then tried to translate that opinion into a number.
Its not utterly meaningless, depending on the skill of the guy doing the judging, but in the big picture it doesn't mean a whole lot either. And its no surprise in studies like this that guys like Lehr and Johnson come out of nowhere to be ranked like this - it happens in baseball statistics all the time that a mediocre defender is "statistically superior" to someone who is just obviously better.
I don't think stats are terribly useful in football anyway. 16 games is a darn small sample size, which brings its own misleading conclusions, plus football is so much more team oriented that a better player could have a much lower YPC then a lesser one, for instance.