Risen Star
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T.J. Yeldon, RB, Alabama Crimson Tide
Yeldon is known for his top-end speed and breakaway ability, but his goal-line conversion ability is a skill that sets him apart. Last season Yeldon scored seven touchdowns on nine rushes from at or inside the 2-yard line. This showing was not an anomaly, as he had seven touchdowns in eight rush attempts in that scenario in 2013. Add those seasons together and it equates to an 82.3 percent touchdown conversion rate. To put this total into perspective, note that according to ESPN Stats & Information, college rushers converted carries from at or inside the 2-yard line into a touchdown an average of 59.3 percent of the time last year. This shows Yeldon is that rare type of back who can convert drives into six points a very high percentage of the time.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State Wildcats
A case can be made that Lockett was the best big-play wide receiver in college football last season. He had more receptions of 10 or more yards against Power 5 teams than anyone in the nation, including Amari Cooper and Kevin White. Lockett also led the nation in red zone receptions (19) and receiving yards (171) last year, was tops in long scrimmage plays against Power 5 teams and ranked tied for third in receptions of 20 or more yards against Power 5 teams.
Add in his best in college football ranking in punt return average and it shows Lockett could give any young wideout a run for the money in terms of posting big plays. He could be had on Day 2 after most of the big-name receiver prospects are off the board, and put up similar or better production.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Boise State Broncos
A useful rule of thumb for grading players from non-Power 5 conferences is that they should be expected to post numbers that are much higher than most of the top prospects who play in Power 5 conferences.
Many fall short under this type of scrutiny, but Ajayi is one whose non-Power 5 conference draft case holds up quite well.
According to Stats LLC, Melvin Gordon and Ajayi were the only two backs in college football to make opposing tacklers miss at least 60 tackles -- and no other back had as many as 50. Ajayi also ranked tied for fifth nationally in the broken tackles category (16).
Ajayi saved some of his best performances for inside the red zone, as he placed second in the nation in terms of red-zone rushing yards(299) and ranked first in red-zone rushing touchdowns (25). Add in his superb passing-game ability (Scouts Inc. gave him a "1" rating here that designates exceptional performance in this area) and it equals a back who could provide a huge shot in the arm for an NFL offense in 2015.
Duke Johnson, RB, Miami Hurricanes
Johnson's draft stock has been somewhat capped due to durability issues and his relatively small frame, but his breakaway ability could be second to none in this draft.
Johnson ranked fifth among Power 5 running backs with 200 or more carries against Power 5 teams in percentage of rush attempts that gained 10 or more yards (18.7 percent). The four backs ahead of him (Nick Chubb, Samaje Perine, Paul Perkins and James Conner) are all returning to their college teams in 2014, so Johnson has the highest big-play percentage among high-volume backs in this year's draft. This breakaway ability isn't limited to rushing attempts, as Johnson also led the nation in long scrimmage plays. He's also a great receiver out of the backfield. He could make a team that takes him on Day 2 very happy.
Mike Davis, RB, South Carolina Gamecocks
Davis is certainly the dark horse of this group, but it wasn't that long ago that he looked like a potential first-round draft pick.
During the first six games of the 2013 season, Davis posted an 11.6-yard average in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures production on rushing plays with good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). Anything in the double-digit range is considered rare air in the GBYPA statistic, and to post that caliber of performance while playing in the SEC is a notable achievement. The durability and intangibles question marks do make Davis something of a risk, and his 2014 season was a disappointment -- but his upside could make him more than worth the gamble, especially if he slips to Day 3.
T.J. Yeldon, RB, Alabama Crimson Tide
Yeldon is known for his top-end speed and breakaway ability, but his goal-line conversion ability is a skill that sets him apart. Last season Yeldon scored seven touchdowns on nine rushes from at or inside the 2-yard line. This showing was not an anomaly, as he had seven touchdowns in eight rush attempts in that scenario in 2013. Add those seasons together and it equates to an 82.3 percent touchdown conversion rate. To put this total into perspective, note that according to ESPN Stats & Information, college rushers converted carries from at or inside the 2-yard line into a touchdown an average of 59.3 percent of the time last year. This shows Yeldon is that rare type of back who can convert drives into six points a very high percentage of the time.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State Wildcats
A case can be made that Lockett was the best big-play wide receiver in college football last season. He had more receptions of 10 or more yards against Power 5 teams than anyone in the nation, including Amari Cooper and Kevin White. Lockett also led the nation in red zone receptions (19) and receiving yards (171) last year, was tops in long scrimmage plays against Power 5 teams and ranked tied for third in receptions of 20 or more yards against Power 5 teams.
Add in his best in college football ranking in punt return average and it shows Lockett could give any young wideout a run for the money in terms of posting big plays. He could be had on Day 2 after most of the big-name receiver prospects are off the board, and put up similar or better production.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Boise State Broncos
A useful rule of thumb for grading players from non-Power 5 conferences is that they should be expected to post numbers that are much higher than most of the top prospects who play in Power 5 conferences.
Many fall short under this type of scrutiny, but Ajayi is one whose non-Power 5 conference draft case holds up quite well.
According to Stats LLC, Melvin Gordon and Ajayi were the only two backs in college football to make opposing tacklers miss at least 60 tackles -- and no other back had as many as 50. Ajayi also ranked tied for fifth nationally in the broken tackles category (16).
Ajayi saved some of his best performances for inside the red zone, as he placed second in the nation in terms of red-zone rushing yards(299) and ranked first in red-zone rushing touchdowns (25). Add in his superb passing-game ability (Scouts Inc. gave him a "1" rating here that designates exceptional performance in this area) and it equals a back who could provide a huge shot in the arm for an NFL offense in 2015.
Duke Johnson, RB, Miami Hurricanes
Johnson's draft stock has been somewhat capped due to durability issues and his relatively small frame, but his breakaway ability could be second to none in this draft.
Johnson ranked fifth among Power 5 running backs with 200 or more carries against Power 5 teams in percentage of rush attempts that gained 10 or more yards (18.7 percent). The four backs ahead of him (Nick Chubb, Samaje Perine, Paul Perkins and James Conner) are all returning to their college teams in 2014, so Johnson has the highest big-play percentage among high-volume backs in this year's draft. This breakaway ability isn't limited to rushing attempts, as Johnson also led the nation in long scrimmage plays. He's also a great receiver out of the backfield. He could make a team that takes him on Day 2 very happy.
Mike Davis, RB, South Carolina Gamecocks
Davis is certainly the dark horse of this group, but it wasn't that long ago that he looked like a potential first-round draft pick.
During the first six games of the 2013 season, Davis posted an 11.6-yard average in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures production on rushing plays with good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). Anything in the double-digit range is considered rare air in the GBYPA statistic, and to post that caliber of performance while playing in the SEC is a notable achievement. The durability and intangibles question marks do make Davis something of a risk, and his 2014 season was a disappointment -- but his upside could make him more than worth the gamble, especially if he slips to Day 3.
