Kaiser Rolls out Draft Value Thoughts

Kaiser

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The strategy going into this draft is the same approach Dallas has used well for the last five years – fill some holes in FA and then build the team through the draft by drafting Best Player Available (at a position of need). This year will be no different except they brought in more depth players in FA ahead of the draft and have fewer true holes on the roster. Like every year, they will see if a top player drops to them (Tremaine Edmunds?), listen to trade down offers and then take the BPA if they don’t trade out.

In this draft I see Guard as the only critical need in the draft, they absolutely need a guy that start immediately (or soon) and thankfully there are five candidates for that.

The positions we need to draft are WLB, FS, DT and RB. In addition, this draft is so deep in WRs that we will draft one. I do think the odds are better than 50/50 we acquire Earl Thomas.

I don’t see drafting a QB, OT, CB, DE or TE (we have five on the roster and Gathers and Jarwin should be much better next year).

Overall I see our targets at 19 coming from the group of Ridley, Vita Vea, OG Wynn, and Leighton Vander Esch.


I use the Brugler guide for a rough idea on player slotting, but it only takes one GM to draft a player a round early and mess up the plan. The value in this draft looks like this IMO:

OG: Round 2 or 3: #1 Need but there are five candidates. Fleming was signed to be the swing tackle (another huge need) but they aren’t going to say that until after the draft or sometime in training camp. There is a chance Will Hernandez drops to our 2nd round pick and if not, that Austin Corbett is there at 81. Either one could start right away and both have a high upside.

WR: Rounds 1 to 5: I’m all over the map on this. Going through the Brugler Guide I count 14 WRs that I like, I could see anything from Ridley or Moore in the first down to it being our 5th round pick when a guy rated for the 4th drops. But with Dez gone our offense is even more about Zeke and Dak hitting the open read, its not a huge deal if we don’t draft a WR at all.

RB: Round 4 or 6: Rod Smith has established himself as a #2 back and Linehan loves the Lance Dunbar type specialty backs that he can design plays for. Nyheim Hines could definitely be a great add if he slips a bit to our pick in the 4th. Mark Walton could also the 4th round pick or Ito Smith in the 6th. Don’t rule out one of the Georgia RBs slipping all the way to 116 either.

1T: Round 1 or 5: Maliek Collins will be healthy next year and if he even plays to his rookie season form, he will be fine at 1T if we have a rookie (or Brian Price) taking 20 snaps a game. There are a lot of good 1T types that will be there in 5th and 6th (Poona Ford, Kendrick Norton (Ken Jr’s son), Bilal Nichols, Justin Jones, Kahlil McKenzie). But the wildcard is there is a good chance Vita Vea will be available at 19 and if you really think he is Ndamukong Suh, pull the trigger and don’t look back.

WLB: Round 4: Its critical to have a backup to Sean Lee who can step in and start a few games, Darius Leonard or Shaquem Griffin are great picks if they are available at 116 – or even better, at 137.

MLB: Round 1: Dane Brugler has Tremaine Edmunds as the 15th best player and LBs typically slide, he would be a fantastic add at 19. He would be a good 2 down Mike as a rookie and go to Pro Bowls in the future. If they don’t like the board at 19 and trade down (fairly likely) Rashaan Evans at the Mike or Leighton Vander Esch would be great picks in the late first round.

FS: Rounds 2 – 5: Earl Thomas for our pick at 81 (plus a conditional pick) is a real possibility, if not there are good players all through rounds 2 – 5 like Rashaan Gaulden, Jessie Bates, Justin Reid, Tracy Walker, Dane Cruikshank, Tarvarius Moore, Joshua Kalu and Trayvon Henderson.
 

Kaiser

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My Dream Draft –


19 – MLB Tremaine Edmunds

50 – OG Will Hernandez

81 – FS Earl Thomas

116 – RB Nyheim Hines

137 – WLB Darius Leonard

Also if our first two picks are Vita Vea and Will Hernandez, I’m trademarking “the 700 Pounds of Fury Draft”.


My Expected Mock:


27 – LB Leighton Vander Esch

50 – OG Will Hernandez

81 – WR Dante Pettis

89 – WLB Darius Leonard

116 – RB Nyheim Hines

137 – 1T Kendrick Norton
 

Kaiser

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DEPTH CHART for 2018


QB - Dak, Cooper Rush

RB – Zeke, Rod Smith, 4th Round Pick

3rd Down RB – 6th round pick, Late FA Addition

FB – Jamize Olawale

WR – Hurns, Beasley, Thompson, TWill, #3 Pick, Noah Brown or Switzer

TE – Witten, Rico Gathers, Blake Jarwin

OT – Tyron, Chaz Green

OG – 2nd round Pick, Martin

C – Frederick

OG – Martin, Looney

OT – Collins, Cameron Fleming




DE – DLaw, Tapper or Gregory

3T – David Irving, Lewis Neal

1T – Maliek Collins, #5 Pick

DE – Taco Carlton, Tyrone Crawford, Kony Ealy

Will – Sean Lee, #4 Pick

Mike – Jaylon Smith, #1 Pick

Sam – Damien Wilson, Joe Thomas

CB – Awuzie, One of Marquez White/Duke Thomas/#6 Pick

CB – Byron Jones, Anthony Brown

CB – Jourdan Lewis

FS – Xavier Woods (but hopefully Earl Thomas), late pick if Thomas isn’t acquired

SS – Jeff Heath, Kavon Frazier
 

Risen Star

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CowboysZone ULTIMATE Fan
When someone talks about drafting certain positions and not drafting others what they're really saying is they don't understand the NFL Draft.
 

Hardline

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DEPTH CHART for 2018


QB - Dak, Cooper Rush

RB – Zeke, Rod Smith, 4th Round Pick

3rd Down RB – 6th round pick, Late FA Addition

FB – Jamize Olawale

WR – Hurns, Beasley, Thompson, TWill, #3 Pick, Noah Brown or Switzer

TE – Witten, Rico Gathers, Blake Jarwin

OT – Tyron, Chaz Green

OG – 2nd round Pick, Martin

C – Frederick

OG – Martin, Looney

OT – Collins, Cameron Fleming




DE – DLaw, Tapper or Gregory

3T – David Irving, Lewis Neal

1T – Maliek Collins, #5 Pick

DE – Taco Carlton, Tyrone Crawford, Kony Ealy

Will – Sean Lee, #4 Pick

Mike – Jaylon Smith, #1 Pick

Sam – Damien Wilson, Joe Thomas

CB – Awuzie, One of Marquez White/Duke Thomas/#6 Pick

CB – Byron Jones, Anthony Brown

CB – Jourdan Lewis

FS – Xavier Woods (but hopefully Earl Thomas), late pick if Thomas isn’t acquired

SS – Jeff Heath, Kavon Frazier
If Will Hernandez drops to 50 Ill jump for joy.
 

Bigdog

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My Dream Draft –


19 – MLB Tremaine Edmunds

50 – OG Will Hernandez

81 – FS Earl Thomas

116 – RB Nyheim Hines

137 – WLB Darius Leonard

Also if our first two picks are Vita Vea and Will Hernandez, I’m trademarking “the 700 Pounds of Fury Draft”.


My Expected Mock:


27 – LB Leighton Vander Esch

50 – OG Will Hernandez

81 – WR Dante Pettis

89 – WLB Darius Leonard

116 – RB Nyheim Hines

137 – 1T Kendrick Norton
I'll take your dream draft every day and twice on Sunday. Realistic draft is not bad either but I don't think Hernandez will last until the 2nd and for that matter don't think Corbett will last to # 81. Good job though.
 

exciter

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The strategy going into this draft is the same approach Dallas has used well for the last five years – fill some holes in FA and then build the team through the draft by drafting Best Player Available (at a position of need). This year will be no different except they brought in more depth players in FA ahead of the draft and have fewer true holes on the roster. Like every year, they will see if a top player drops to them (Tremaine Edmunds?), listen to trade down offers and then take the BPA if they don’t trade out.

In this draft I see Guard as the only critical need in the draft, they absolutely need a guy that start immediately (or soon) and thankfully there are five candidates for that.

The positions we need to draft are WLB, FS, DT and RB. In addition, this draft is so deep in WRs that we will draft one. I do think the odds are better than 50/50 we acquire Earl Thomas.

I don’t see drafting a QB, OT, CB, DE or TE (we have five on the roster and Gathers and Jarwin should be much better next year).

Overall I see our targets at 19 coming from the group of Ridley, Vita Vea, OG Wynn, and Leighton Vander Esch.


I use the Brugler guide for a rough idea on player slotting, but it only takes one GM to draft a player a round early and mess up the plan. The value in this draft looks like this IMO:

OG: Round 2 or 3: #1 Need but there are five candidates. Fleming was signed to be the swing tackle (another huge need) but they aren’t going to say that until after the draft or sometime in training camp. There is a chance Will Hernandez drops to our 2nd round pick and if not, that Austin Corbett is there at 81. Either one could start right away and both have a high upside.

WR: Rounds 1 to 5: I’m all over the map on this. Going through the Brugler Guide I count 14 WRs that I like, I could see anything from Ridley or Moore in the first down to it being our 5th round pick when a guy rated for the 4th drops. But with Dez gone our offense is even more about Zeke and Dak hitting the open read, its not a huge deal if we don’t draft a WR at all.

RB: Round 4 or 6: Rod Smith has established himself as a #2 back and Linehan loves the Lance Dunbar type specialty backs that he can design plays for. Nyheim Hines could definitely be a great add if he slips a bit to our pick in the 4th. Mark Walton could also the 4th round pick or Ito Smith in the 6th. Don’t rule out one of the Georgia RBs slipping all the way to 116 either.

1T: Round 1 or 5: Maliek Collins will be healthy next year and if he even plays to his rookie season form, he will be fine at 1T if we have a rookie (or Brian Price) taking 20 snaps a game. There are a lot of good 1T types that will be there in 5th and 6th (Poona Ford, Kendrick Norton (Ken Jr’s son), Bilal Nichols, Justin Jones, Kahlil McKenzie). But the wildcard is there is a good chance Vita Vea will be available at 19 and if you really think he is Ndamukong Suh, pull the trigger and don’t look back.

WLB: Round 4: Its critical to have a backup to Sean Lee who can step in and start a few games, Darius Leonard or Shaquem Griffin are great picks if they are available at 116 – or even better, at 137.

MLB: Round 1: Dane Brugler has Tremaine Edmunds as the 15th best player and LBs typically slide, he would be a fantastic add at 19. He would be a good 2 down Mike as a rookie and go to Pro Bowls in the future. If they don’t like the board at 19 and trade down (fairly likely) Rashaan Evans at the Mike or Leighton Vander Esch would be great picks in the late first round.

FS: Rounds 2 – 5: Earl Thomas for our pick at 81 (plus a conditional pick) is a real possibility, if not there are good players all through rounds 2 – 5 like Rashaan Gaulden, Jessie Bates, Justin Reid, Tracy Walker, Dane Cruikshank, Tarvarius Moore, Joshua Kalu and Trayvon Henderson.
Eh I think there dead set on forcing Green into that LG opening with Martin and Looney as the backup plan. They just seem reticent of admitting they blew the pick. That being said there seems to be starting quality guards through the 3rd and into the 4th rounds.
 

DFWJC

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My Dream Draft –


19 – MLB Tremaine Edmunds

50 – OG Will Hernandez

81 – FS Earl Thomas

116 – RB Nyheim Hines

137 – WLB Darius Leonard

Also if our first two picks are Vita Vea and Will Hernandez, I’m trademarking “the 700 Pounds of Fury Draft”.


My Expected Mock:


27 – LB Leighton Vander Esch

50 – OG Will Hernandez

81 – WR Dante Pettis

89 – WLB Darius Leonard

116 – RB Nyheim Hines

137 – 1T Kendrick Norton
Expecting Hernandez to be there at 50 is very optimistic.
Would love it though
Do t want him at 19, btw
 

DanA

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When someone talks about drafting certain positions and not drafting others what they're really saying is they don't understand the NFL Draft.


Exactly. For instance, if someone suggested we drafted a DE because we thought CB's would be available later in the draft.....they clearly have no idea about what really happens in the NFL.
 

fansince68

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My Dream Draft –


19 – MLB Tremaine Edmunds

50 – OG Will Hernandez

81 – FS Earl Thomas

116 – RB Nyheim Hines

137 – WLB Darius Leonard

Also if our first two picks are Vita Vea and Will Hernandez, I’m trademarking “the 700 Pounds of Fury Draft”.


My Expected Mock:


27 – LB Leighton Vander Esch

50 – OG Will Hernandez

81 – WR Dante Pettis

89 – WLB Darius Leonard

116 – RB Nyheim Hines

137 – 1T Kendrick Norton
I like this a lot.
 

waving monkey

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DEPTH CHART for 2018


QB - Dak, Cooper Rush

RB – Zeke, Rod Smith, 4th Round Pick

3rd Down RB – 6th round pick, Late FA Addition

FB – Jamize Olawale

WR – Hurns, Beasley, Thompson, TWill, #3 Pick, Noah Brown or Switzer

TE – Witten, Rico Gathers, Blake Jarwin

OT – Tyron, Chaz Green

OG – 2nd round Pick, Martin

C – Frederick

OG – Martin, Looney

OT – Collins, Cameron Fleming




DE – DLaw, Tapper or Gregory

3T – David Irving, Lewis Neal

1T – Maliek Collins, #5 Pick

DE – Taco Carlton, Tyrone Crawford, Kony Ealy

Will – Sean Lee, #4 Pick

Mike – Jaylon Smith, #1 Pick

Sam – Damien Wilson, Joe Thomas

CB – Awuzie, One of Marquez White/Duke Thomas/#6 Pick

CB – Byron Jones, Anthony Brown

CB – Jourdan Lewis

FS – Xavier Woods (but hopefully Earl Thomas), late pick if Thomas isn’t acquired

SS – Jeff Heath, Kavon Frazier
I quoted Hardline, and you answered
it is a public board but no matter
 

cnuball21

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Exactly. For instance, if someone suggested we drafted a DE because we thought CB's would be available later in the draft.....they clearly have no idea about what really happens in the NFL.

Are you being sarcastic or serious?

This is exactly what Dallas did last year and I thought they did a phenomenal job of taking advantage of the strength of the draft.
 

Kaiser

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Expecting Hernandez to be there at 50 is very optimistic.
Would love it though
Do t want him at 19, btw

I didn't think so for a long time and he may very well go at the end of the 1st round. It only takes one team to fall in love with his potential and take him at 15 or something. But I base the pick at 50 on a couple of factors -

1 - Guards almost always drop in the draft from where they are rated (Bruger has him as the 20th best player)
Of five OGs who will be drafted high, Hernandez is the least ready to step in as a Day One starter.

2 - There are some things teams can nitpick on his game like shorter arms, only played LG, etc.

3 - If Nelson drops to the 8 - 12 range, there is certainly a scenario where a team targeting Hernandez in the second half of the first round trades up to get Nelson.

4 - There aren't that many teams that are going to be targeting a Guard in the first 49 picks and Nelson, Wynn, and Daniels are all likely to be picked before Hernandez.

Every draft is a crapshoot obviously, but I think the factors are in place to see Hernandez there at 50.
 
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