Kaiser Rolls out Draft Value Thoughts

[Fla Cowpoke]

The strategy going into this draft is the same approach Dallas has used well for the last five years – fill some holes in FA and then build the team through the draft by drafting Best Player Available (at a position of need). This year will be no different except they brought in more depth players in FA ahead of the draft and have fewer true holes on the roster. Like every year, they will see if a top player drops to them (Tremaine Edmunds?), listen to trade down offers and then take the BPA if they don’t trade out.

In this draft I see Guard as the only critical need in the draft, they absolutely need a guy that start immediately (or soon) and thankfully there are five candidates for that.

The positions we need to draft are WLB, FS, DT and RB. In addition, this draft is so deep in WRs that we will draft one. I do think the odds are better than 50/50 we acquire Earl Thomas.

I don’t see drafting a QB, OT, CB, DE or TE (we have five on the roster and Gathers and Jarwin should be much better next year).

Overall I see our targets at 19 coming from the group of Ridley, Vita Vea, OG Wynn, and Leighton Vander Esch.


I use the Brugler guide for a rough idea on player slotting, but it only takes one GM to draft a player a round early and mess up the plan. The value in this draft looks like this IMO:

OG: Round 2 or 3: #1 Need but there are five candidates. Fleming was signed to be the swing tackle (another huge need) but they aren’t going to say that until after the draft or sometime in training camp. There is a chance Will Hernandez drops to our 2nd round pick and if not, that Austin Corbett is there at 81. Either one could start right away and both have a high upside.

WR: Rounds 1 to 5: I’m all over the map on this. Going through the Brugler Guide I count 14 WRs that I like, I could see anything from Ridley or Moore in the first down to it being our 5th round pick when a guy rated for the 4th drops. But with Dez gone our offense is even more about Zeke and Dak hitting the open read, its not a huge deal if we don’t draft a WR at all.

RB: Round 4 or 6: Rod Smith has established himself as a #2 back and Linehan loves the Lance Dunbar type specialty backs that he can design plays for. Nyheim Hines could definitely be a great add if he slips a bit to our pick in the 4th. Mark Walton could also the 4th round pick or Ito Smith in the 6th. Don’t rule out one of the Georgia RBs slipping all the way to 116 either.

1T: Round 1 or 5: Maliek Collins will be healthy next year and if he even plays to his rookie season form, he will be fine at 1T if we have a rookie (or Brian Price) taking 20 snaps a game. There are a lot of good 1T types that will be there in 5th and 6th (Poona Ford, Kendrick Norton (Ken Jr’s son), Bilal Nichols, Justin Jones, Kahlil McKenzie). But the wildcard is there is a good chance Vita Vea will be available at 19 and if you really think he is Ndamukong Suh, pull the trigger and don’t look back.

WLB: Round 4: Its critical to have a backup to Sean Lee who can step in and start a few games, Darius Leonard or Shaquem Griffin are great picks if they are available at 116 – or even better, at 137.

MLB: Round 1: Dane Brugler has Tremaine Edmunds as the 15th best player and LBs typically slide, he would be a fantastic add at 19. He would be a good 2 down Mike as a rookie and go to Pro Bowls in the future. If they don’t like the board at 19 and trade down (fairly likely) Rashaan Evans at the Mike or Leighton Vander Esch would be great picks in the late first round.

FS: Rounds 2 – 5: Earl Thomas for our pick at 81 (plus a conditional pick) is a real possibility, if not there are good players all through rounds 2 – 5 like Rashaan Gaulden, Jessie Bates, Justin Reid, Tracy Walker, Dane Cruikshank, Tarvarius Moore, Joshua Kalu and Trayvon Henderson.

Pretty much agree with the spots we need and the rounds to get them. People are going to say you can't target a position with a certain pick but you do it all the time. Very rarely does any team go BPA solely without at least some consideration to their needs as well as to the strength of a given draft.

I think we go LB or OG in round one with a possible trade back. Good value for either ther.

Round 2 I see opposite of first round, with a chance that we look at WR. I honestly see us doing something where we trade back up into the second with our 3rd rounder. Maybe trade back in first, then use whatever we get in return to move up from 3rd back into the second.

I would love Griffin somewhere, definitely my pet cat, and the WR from UCF is of interest too, Trequan Smith. Honestly think if we can get G, LB and WR that can start then it doesn't matter what else we get in the draft. I do think we should look at another QB since we apparently aren't signing a vet. I would grab Kurt Benkert in the 6th-7th if we could. Good athlete, very good arm and has upside.

 

[Kaiser]

Pretty much agree with the spots we need and the rounds to get them. People are going to say you can't target a position with a certain pick but you do it all the time. Very rarely does any team go BPA solely without at least some consideration to their needs as well as to the strength of a given draft.

Exactly, its idiotic to say teams don't consider position and value. If we have three players at roughly the same rating sitting on the board for our first round pick - and they are a RB, an OT who can't play OG and a LB - which one are you going to take? The LB every time.

There are plenty of times you take the best player regardless of position so you can groom them for the future, Jason Witten is an example of that. But if you look at our top three picks of recent drafts, its probably been ten years since they drafted a player that wasn't going to be plugged into a position of need immediately.

 

[CPanther95]

Now I'm hungry for Kaiser Rolls.

 

[Kaiser]

I think we go LB or OG in round one with a possible trade back. Good value for either ther.

Round 2 I see opposite of first round, with a chance that we look at WR. I honestly see us doing something where we trade back up into the second with our 3rd rounder. Maybe trade back in first, then use whatever we get in return to move up from 3rd back into the second.

Totally agree, this draft is so strong at WR its extremely likely we draft one high. I can see Ridley or Moore in the first round but it seems like 50 is the best value. I locked in early on James Washington at 50 as a good value pick, but with Dez out of the picture it could swing to guy like Sutton if he drops.

Its going to be fun to watch and the last several drafts have been strong, I think we will all be happy when the dust settles.