Keep the right perspective on rookies

Bobhaze

Bobhaze

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Wow, thank goodness preseason is over.

Before I get to my main point, let me be clear that I think we drafted some defensive help this year. Micah Parsons looks to be an outstanding linebacker with huge upside. There are some others too. We drafted 8 players on defense- some of them are going to work out. So I’m not putting down the 2021 draft. BUT- in reality, none us know if this 2021 draft is a good overall draft yet or not.

However- for everyone who thinks we completely fixed our defense in one draft, the odds are against that happening. It should be better because it had nowhere to go but up.

But here’s one main thing to remember about this draft- rookies are going to be rookies. Parsons should be an impactful player but it may not happen immediately. It takes rookies a few games at the very least to get used to the NFL game. And preseason games aren’t real NFL games.

In other words, patience will be needed early this season. Something fans aren’t famous for. Rookies take time. Rookies gonna be rookies.

The numbers below show what percentage of NFL drafted rookies eventually become consistent starters. The positions in bold are the positions we drafted in each round in 2021. Some rounds had two players.
  • 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
  • 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%)QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
  • 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
  • 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
  • 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
  • 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
  • 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
So as we go into some real football starting Sept. 9th, just remember that most rookies take time to have impact. Rookies gonna be rookies.
 
Bobhaze said:
Wow, thank goodness preseason is over.

Before I get to my main point, let me be clear that I think we drafted some defensive help this year. Micah Parsons looks to be an outstanding linebacker with huge upside. There are some others too. We drafted 8 players on defense- some of them are going to work out. So I’m not putting down the 2021 draft. BUT- in reality, none us know if this 2021 draft is a good overall draft yet or not.

However- for everyone who thinks we completely fixed our defense in one draft, the odds are against that happening. It should be better because it had nowhere to go but up.

But here’s one main thing to remember about this draft- rookies are going to be rookies. Parsons should be an impactful player but it may not happen immediately. It takes rookies a few games at the very least to get used to the NFL game. And preseason games aren’t real NFL games.

In other words, patience will be needed early this season. Something fans aren’t famous for. Rookies take time. Rookies gonna be rookies.

The numbers below show what percentage of NFL drafted rookies eventually become consistent starters. The positions in bold are the positions we drafted in each round in 2021. Some rounds had two players.
  • 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
  • 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%)QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
  • 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
  • 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
  • 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
  • 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
  • 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
So as we go into some real football starting Sept. 9th, just remember that most rookies take time to have impact. Rookies gonna be rookies.
Click to expand...

Good post. I think the defense will definitely improve over the course of the season but there will likely be some hard lessons learned in September.
 
Hardline said:
Where did you get those percentages?
Click to expand...
It’s from a combination of sources- 1. a study done by St. John’s University called “Success or Bust”. (I think Its pay protected but I got it a few years ago) 2. Several articles from NFL and team sources- one PFF that is paywall and some that are free and one from Forbes magazine.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe...is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=6c0a84427495
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round
 
My thoughts going into the preseason is that at least one rookie at every level (dl, lb, db) needed to be an upgrade over what we had in order to feel this was an improved defense. Micah is an obvious upgrade. I like to think Osa is as well. Kelvin Joseph has been a disappointment. He'll probably get better with time but right now I don't think the defense has improved enough to make a deep playoff run this year.
 
Will be some growing pains for sure. But if they are quick learners. May take about 5 or 6 games instead of 8 to 10 games.
 
Eanwen said:
My thoughts going into the preseason is that at least one rookie at every level (dl, lb, db) needed to be an upgrade over what we had in order to feel this was an improved defense. Micah is an obvious upgrade. I like to think Osa is as well. Kelvin Joseph has been a disappointment. He'll probably get better with time but right now I don't think the defense has improved enough to make a deep playoff run this year.
Click to expand...
Too early to tell. Preseason games are rarely good indicators of what a player is going to be. They are often playing with or against opposing players who will never play a meaningful down of NFL football which makes it sometimes hard to judge their level of play.

Some players are obviously really good and you know it immediately. Like Parsons. Or when Zeke came in or CeDee Lamb. But those guys were are all first round picks which are almost always going to be successful. The middle and late round guys- it’s way too early to know what we have there yet.
 
Cmac said:
33 looked like a rookie, but this is his 4th year.
Click to expand...

Burton looked like a Kris Richard hold over today....couldn't find the football to save his life. Amazes me year after year we hire coaches that teach horrible technique....and they all look the same....which leads me back to who is doing the hiring...and what are they looking for when doing the hiring..@ some point you need to be pointing the finger @ the person who is hiring all these piss poor coaches. Sure looks like McCarthy hired a bunch of his drinking buddies that he's comfortable with.

:popcorn:
 
Bobhaze said:
Wow, thank goodness preseason is over.

Before I get to my main point, let me be clear that I think we drafted some defensive help this year. Micah Parsons looks to be an outstanding linebacker with huge upside. There are some others too. We drafted 8 players on defense- some of them are going to work out. So I’m not putting down the 2021 draft. BUT- in reality, none us know if this 2021 draft is a good overall draft yet or not.

However- for everyone who thinks we completely fixed our defense in one draft, the odds are against that happening. It should be better because it had nowhere to go but up.

But here’s one main thing to remember about this draft- rookies are going to be rookies. Parsons should be an impactful player but it may not happen immediately. It takes rookies a few games at the very least to get used to the NFL game. And preseason games aren’t real NFL games.

In other words, patience will be needed early this season. Something fans aren’t famous for. Rookies take time. Rookies gonna be rookies.

The numbers below show what percentage of NFL drafted rookies eventually become consistent starters. The positions in bold are the positions we drafted in each round in 2021. Some rounds had two players.
  • 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
  • 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%)QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
  • 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
  • 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
  • 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
  • 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
  • 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
So as we go into some real football starting Sept. 9th, just remember that most rookies take time to have impact. Rookies gonna be rookies.
Click to expand...

+1
Nice facts.

Parsons is a full timer.
Osa, Cox have significant roles.
Bohanna probably does too, but that's more for lack of alternatives.
 
Floatyworm said:
Burton looked like a Kris Richard hold over today....couldn't find the football to save his life. Amazes me year after year we hire coaches that teach horrible technique....and they all look the same....which leads me back to who is doing the hiring...and what are they looking for when doing the hiring..@ some point you need to be pointing the finger @ the person who is hiring all these piss poor coaches. Sure looks like McCarthy hired a bunch of his drinking buddies that he's comfortable with.

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
Floaty I don’t disagree with about Burton. But we were never counting on that guy for much anyway. Let’s wait and see what this team looks like when the players we are counting on are on the field.

I’m more concerned about the soft culture around the Star than I am the preseason performance.
 
When a lot of people were getting over themselves thinking guys like Bohanna and Joseph would start for us......I thought it was odd or maybe people were just out of touch with reality. But there's a reason why they re-signed Lewis, kept Anthony Brown, etc.

Dan Quinn is not relying on rookies to build his defense for this season. This is about getting back to basics. Getting back to not being the worst defense in the league. Outside of Micah Parsons....i'm having a hard time seeing a rookie make a immediate impact.
 
Bobhaze said:
Floaty I don’t disagree with about Burton. But we were never counting on that guy for much anyway. Let’s wait and see what this team looks like when the players we are counting on are on the field.

I’m more concerned about the soft culture around the Star than I am the preseason performance.
Click to expand...

:hammer:........definitely a problem. And how management can't see it's a problem is mind boggling. :banghead:
 
Great post Hazey. The soft culture is such a critical organizational flaw but we build castles made of sand every year on its foundations.
 
But but, people want Boss Man to be Prime Time right now otherwise he's a bust.
 
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