Risen Star
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Click the link for full commentary (ESPN Insider)
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...onard-williams-10-safest-picks-2015-nfl-draft
The run-stopper plus
Leonard Williams: I know some think Danny Shelton is a safer defensive lineman as a pure oversized clogger in the middle, but Williams is a devastating run-defender who controls multiple gaps and creates a push of penetration regardless of where he lines up. He's safe because of the scheme versatility and the fact that he hasn't even fully developed as a pass-rusher yet.
Where he'll land: Top five.
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The do-it-all pass-catcher
Amari Cooper: Man him. Zone him. Bracket him. Press him. Do whatever you want -- yet Cooper has shown he can get open with short-area quickness, strength, and speed out of his breaks and over the top. He also recognizes what defenses are trying to do to him. This guy caught 84 more passes than the next guy on his team last year. Defenses knew he was coming, but there was nothing they could do. We've also seen in Cooper's workouts that concerns about his speed aren't just unfounded; Cooper is one of the fastest WR prospects in this draft.
Where he'll land: Inside the top 10.
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The edge-rusher who fits
Dante Fowler: He can play with his hand on the ground, or you can stand him up. He can win with quickness and dip around the corner, or he'll take advantage if a tackle commits to stopping outside leverage and he'll work back inside. Fowler has good strength but also enough length; he's also raw, so you can see that his talent will develop. I like Fowler because he's a great hybrid type in a league where almost all defenses are, at least somewhat.
Where he'll land: Inside the top 10.
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The guy you know you can run behind
Brandon Scherff: By this point I think we know that Scherff might not stay at left tackle. He simply doesn't have the length for an evaluator to say he'll definitely end up there in the NFL. But he's safe because the worst-case scenario is that you plug him in right away at guard and let him go to work. Scherff has great brute strength, and you see it in the run game. He could be the Zack Martin or Joel Bitonio of 2015 (although I do think he can play right tackle).
Where he'll land: Top 15.
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The sneaky-safe linebacker
Shaq Thompson: The guy who played everywhere last year (including running back) can be maligned because we don't know at which position where he'll end up. But that fails to mention that even a conservative estimate of his potential would make him a very good weakside defender who can chase down any play and knows how to cover in space. He could use more mass, but the guy who compares himself to Lavonte David really could become that type of player.
Where he'll land: Top 40.
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The guy who can simply cover
Trae Waynes: The cornerback out of Michigan State is lean but can press, and he has length but can also mirror routes and stay with the fastest receivers down the field. Sure, he grabs too much and will have to trust himself and his positioning a little more, but given his now-proven recovery speed (he can run low-4.3s) to go with the tape, you have to feel as comfortable with Waynes as any other corner in this draft given how difficult a transition it can be at that position.
Where he'll land: Top 20.
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The break-the-glass-in-an-emergency O-lineman
Cameron Erving: I think Erving has Pro Bowl potential if he plays center, and any team that saw his tape from the last half of the 2014 season likely would put him there. But he also would have been drafted if he'd simply stayed at left tackle, which speaks to his upside and versatility. If you draft him in Round 1, you can start him at center, but Erving brings extra value if injuries make a mess of your line.
Where he'll land: Late Round 1.
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The speed merchant-plus
Phillip Dorsett: He ran a 4.33 40 in Indy and also timed 6.70 in the three-cone drill, both notable because although he has speed to simply blow away cornerbacks who don't have plus-plus recovery speed, he also has the quickness to win in the slot and do major damage against zone coverages. He lacks size but does a decent job on contested throws and has gotten a lot more consistent with his hands. I think he's safe because he's so much more than a sprinter out there, and he'll be a handful to cover wherever he is lined up.
Where he'll land: Top 35.
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The freak athlete with tape to match
Byron Jones: The UConn cornerback can broad jump a furlong and is fast and bouncy. He also displays great acceleration when he needs to recover. It would be easy to see Jones' workout footage and peg him as an athlete, but he's actually better at anticipating than simply relying on changing direction without any wasted motion, because his change-of-direction movement is probably the one clear weakness he shows on tape. I think Jones could land at safety depending on the needs of the team that drafts him. He's one of the bigger sleepers in this draft.
Where he'll land: Top 40.
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If you draft him in Round 2 ...
Melvin Gordon: Given the injury questions any running back faces, Gordon is certainly not a safe pick in Round 1. But he is close because if you can block for him, he can be a major difference-maker in his rookie season, so what you would lose in long-term certainty you'd win back in immediate production. Gordon is sneaky strong between the tackles and a home run threat any time he gets a crease. He's my best bet to be the first running back taken in Round 1 since 2012.
Where he'll land: Top 35.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...onard-williams-10-safest-picks-2015-nfl-draft
The run-stopper plus
Leonard Williams: I know some think Danny Shelton is a safer defensive lineman as a pure oversized clogger in the middle, but Williams is a devastating run-defender who controls multiple gaps and creates a push of penetration regardless of where he lines up. He's safe because of the scheme versatility and the fact that he hasn't even fully developed as a pass-rusher yet.
Where he'll land: Top five.
-
The do-it-all pass-catcher
Amari Cooper: Man him. Zone him. Bracket him. Press him. Do whatever you want -- yet Cooper has shown he can get open with short-area quickness, strength, and speed out of his breaks and over the top. He also recognizes what defenses are trying to do to him. This guy caught 84 more passes than the next guy on his team last year. Defenses knew he was coming, but there was nothing they could do. We've also seen in Cooper's workouts that concerns about his speed aren't just unfounded; Cooper is one of the fastest WR prospects in this draft.
Where he'll land: Inside the top 10.
-
The edge-rusher who fits
Dante Fowler: He can play with his hand on the ground, or you can stand him up. He can win with quickness and dip around the corner, or he'll take advantage if a tackle commits to stopping outside leverage and he'll work back inside. Fowler has good strength but also enough length; he's also raw, so you can see that his talent will develop. I like Fowler because he's a great hybrid type in a league where almost all defenses are, at least somewhat.
Where he'll land: Inside the top 10.
-
The guy you know you can run behind
Brandon Scherff: By this point I think we know that Scherff might not stay at left tackle. He simply doesn't have the length for an evaluator to say he'll definitely end up there in the NFL. But he's safe because the worst-case scenario is that you plug him in right away at guard and let him go to work. Scherff has great brute strength, and you see it in the run game. He could be the Zack Martin or Joel Bitonio of 2015 (although I do think he can play right tackle).
Where he'll land: Top 15.
-
The sneaky-safe linebacker
Shaq Thompson: The guy who played everywhere last year (including running back) can be maligned because we don't know at which position where he'll end up. But that fails to mention that even a conservative estimate of his potential would make him a very good weakside defender who can chase down any play and knows how to cover in space. He could use more mass, but the guy who compares himself to Lavonte David really could become that type of player.
Where he'll land: Top 40.
-
The guy who can simply cover
Trae Waynes: The cornerback out of Michigan State is lean but can press, and he has length but can also mirror routes and stay with the fastest receivers down the field. Sure, he grabs too much and will have to trust himself and his positioning a little more, but given his now-proven recovery speed (he can run low-4.3s) to go with the tape, you have to feel as comfortable with Waynes as any other corner in this draft given how difficult a transition it can be at that position.
Where he'll land: Top 20.
-
The break-the-glass-in-an-emergency O-lineman
Cameron Erving: I think Erving has Pro Bowl potential if he plays center, and any team that saw his tape from the last half of the 2014 season likely would put him there. But he also would have been drafted if he'd simply stayed at left tackle, which speaks to his upside and versatility. If you draft him in Round 1, you can start him at center, but Erving brings extra value if injuries make a mess of your line.
Where he'll land: Late Round 1.
-
The speed merchant-plus
Phillip Dorsett: He ran a 4.33 40 in Indy and also timed 6.70 in the three-cone drill, both notable because although he has speed to simply blow away cornerbacks who don't have plus-plus recovery speed, he also has the quickness to win in the slot and do major damage against zone coverages. He lacks size but does a decent job on contested throws and has gotten a lot more consistent with his hands. I think he's safe because he's so much more than a sprinter out there, and he'll be a handful to cover wherever he is lined up.
Where he'll land: Top 35.
-
The freak athlete with tape to match
Byron Jones: The UConn cornerback can broad jump a furlong and is fast and bouncy. He also displays great acceleration when he needs to recover. It would be easy to see Jones' workout footage and peg him as an athlete, but he's actually better at anticipating than simply relying on changing direction without any wasted motion, because his change-of-direction movement is probably the one clear weakness he shows on tape. I think Jones could land at safety depending on the needs of the team that drafts him. He's one of the bigger sleepers in this draft.
Where he'll land: Top 40.
-
If you draft him in Round 2 ...
Melvin Gordon: Given the injury questions any running back faces, Gordon is certainly not a safe pick in Round 1. But he is close because if you can block for him, he can be a major difference-maker in his rookie season, so what you would lose in long-term certainty you'd win back in immediate production. Gordon is sneaky strong between the tackles and a home run threat any time he gets a crease. He's my best bet to be the first running back taken in Round 1 since 2012.
Where he'll land: Top 35.
