Kiper Chat 2/11/15....

[Risen Star]

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51587/nfl-draft-insider-mel-kiper

JJDEMARAY (Minnesota)

Hello Mel,I see your brand new Mock 2.0 is out. You switched White and Parker around. Why White over Parker for the Vikes at #11? Thanks.

Mel Kiper
(2:32 PM)

Parker, he has to answer questions about how fast he'll be. Some only think he'll run in the 4.5 range. He'll have to show that he has the speed to be a top 15 pick. If he shows the speed, he'll go right where White is now or higher.

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Kevin (Worcester,MA)

Hey Mel, I know you have Funchess going to the Pats in the new mock draft. If Bellichick is a little gun shy in picking another WR early after the last few busts is there any interior O-Line that may fit in that area of the draft? Thanks for the hard work.

Mel Kiper
(2:33 PM)

For an interior OL? At that point in the draft, maybe La'el Collins, AJ Cann, Laken Tomlinson. Those would be the guys.

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Eric (Chicago)

Thanks for the chat! With rumors of the Bears moving to a 3-4 or maybe a hybrid - does that change any draft strategy with their 7th pick or is it just best defensive player available? Could there be trade partners out there so they could move back and give Ryan Pace a few more picks to restock the defense?

Mel Kiper
(2:34 PM)

A lot will depend on Stephen Paea does in free agency. They could go with Shelton at NT. Or Arik Armstead. They have a lot of need areas on defense.

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Payne (Cleveland)

Do you see the Browns possibly landing Mariotta without moving up?

Mel Kiper
(2:35 PM)

No. No chance. You have St. Louis at 10 is the big hurdle. No. 6 to the Jets.

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Alex (New Jersey)

As of right now, which team would be the best fit for Brett Hundley to develop his game?

Mel Kiper
(2:35 PM)

Kansas City in the second or third round. Andy Reid does a good job of developing QBs.

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Dean (Fort Lauderdale, FL)

It seems like this is one the weakest years we've seen in recent history for the offensive tackle position. Do you seen any potential day one starting LT's?

Mel Kiper
(2:36 PM)

Andrus Peat, Stanford, could be. He'd be the one that has the best opportunity. He's still a little raw, but he's coming out of Stanford with a tremendous skill set.

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Zack [via mobile]

Do you think there is a chance of my man Marcus Mariota somehow getting drafted to the Eagles

Mel Kiper
(2:37 PM)

They'd have to move around. He can't get past 10 to St. Louis. You have to get inside of 10 or inside of 6. To move from 20 to inside 10, it's possible. But you have to move.

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Bob (Newark)

Why has Shaq Thompson dropped so far since your last mock?

Mel Kiper
(2:38 PM)

I think people are trying to figure out where he best fits. OLB. I think some people are thinking RB. As a 4-3 OLB, there isn't a tremendous demand for a guy who isn't a pass rusher. He's a true 4-3 OLB. He'll be a nice second round pick.

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Jon (Dallas) [via mobile]

Do you see Cowboys' need to maximize Romo's window leading them to elevate "ready now" prospects on their board over guys with higher ceilings? If so, any examples of how that might manifest itself?

Mel Kiper
(2:41 PM)

You always want to win now. You bring guys in who will develop and win now. That's why they're coaches. They got Anthony Hitchens at LB. They got contributions from young guys. You still have to develop players. That's why I don't like calling rookies busts. No rookie is a bust. It's all about developing players. The best NFL ready player is usually going to be on the line. This is such a pass happy game. The college game is so pass oriented that it's made the transition from college to pro a lot easier.

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Tim (Joplin)

Dorial Green-Beckham from No. 18 to out of the first round? Are there fears that he's another Josh Gordon in the making?

Mel Kiper
(2:43 PM)

When you do a mock, you talk to people around the league. Everyone in the beginning were intrigued by him. But what hurt DGB is Josh Gordon. That situation, great talent vs. concerns and the concerns won out. Now, Green-Beckham he sat out the entire year. Maybe the talent will win out. We'll have to see how he works out. He'll have to answer the questions as well.

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William (Seattle [via mobile]

Considering the decline in the value of RB's, how far in the draft can you see Gordan or Gurley falling?

Mel Kiper
(2:44 PM)

I think Gordon will go in the first round. Maybe 17 or 24. I think Gurley goes second round. He would have gone in the first round if not for the injury. Abdullah could be a 2-3 rounder. This is an outstanding RB group. You're going to get some really good backs that are going to drop a little bit.

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KingKevin (Seattle)

How similar is Funchess to Kelvin Benjamin?

Mel Kiper
(2:46 PM)

Not similar. Benjamin is a better player. He had an outstanding campaign when he entered the draft. Funchess didn't have a great year. He hasn't defined if he's a TE or WR. I think he's a TE but he doesn't block well. He's inconsistent catching the football. I see him going late in the first to New England. I would grade him out as a second round pick, but I've heard from some people around the league that like him in the first.

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Bill (NJ)

How deep is the CB class this year. Potential starters in round 2 or 3 for the Steelers?

Mel Kiper
(2:48 PM)

They always have had the ability to do that. They could use a safety as well. Kevin Johnson, Wake; PJ Williams, FSU; Stephen Nelson, Oregon State. There will be some really good 2-3 round corners. Quinten Rollins, held his own at the Senior Bowl. He was a basketball player turned back to football at Miami (Ohio). Nick Marshall, the QB turned CB played well at the Senior Bowl as well. He could be in the fourth round mix. Three go in the first, maybe four, but there are a lot to go in the 2-4 rounds.

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Dan (NJ)

Have you lowered Landon Collins on your big board, or is this just how the mock played out this time? Is he still in contention for a top 10 pick??(Giants maybe)

Mel Kiper
(2:51 PM)

That's how the mock played out. I had him up in the Chicago area of the draft. That first mock was pre-Senior Bowl. Now, this mock is post-Senior Bowl. And juniors will get bumped down a little. Safeties a little diminished, unless you are a good cover man. You saw Calvin Pryor struggle a little bit last year and that's because he's not a cover guy. That's why I dropped Collins down to Pittsburgh at 22.

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colin (NYC)

Any chance the Giants trade down and take Melvin Gordon?

Mel Kiper
(2:52 PM)

The Giants have to improve the OL. They need to solidify the line. I don't know if they want to trade out of there or not. They drafted Andre Williams last year. He showed he can play at this level. He's a hard nosed runner. Quick. Aggressive. Breaks tackles. Tough. He's a very suspect receiver. If he caught the ball better than he does, he'd be a big factor. But he's one-dimensional. If you want to get a versatile guy, you don't need to take a Gordon. I'd rather get a Duke Johnson in the fourth round. A David Cobb in the fourth round. You'll find value at RB.

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Corey (D.C.)

Who do you have as the best 2 kickers in the draft? Will either be drafted? Manton, Brindza?

Mel Kiper
(2:54 PM)

Tom Obarski from Concordia (Minn.). He's probably the best PK. He has a nice leg. But I don't think there are any draftable kickers. Justin Manton is a PK/P. He's a dual guy. Kyle Loomis. I don't think a PK or P gets drafted this year.

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Josh (New Jersey)

Do you think the jets would consider trading back if the Winston and Mariota are already taken?

Mel Kiper
(2:55 PM)

If they're both gone by No. 6 then Mariota goes to Tennessee or Washington then somebody has been pushed down to where you're picking that you weren't expecting. Maybe a OLB or Amari Cooper slides down. Gregory maybe. You'd consider either one of those guys.

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Ben (Baton Rouge, LA)

Is Bud Dupree a first rounder? What are his strengths and where would he fit?

Mel Kiper
(2:56 PM)

He's a very good pass rusher. He's versatile, can play with his hands on the ground or on his feet. He has pass rush ability. I could have put him at Arizona at 24. That was where I thought about him. Baltimore at 26.

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Danny (NYC)

Do you think Bryce Petty would be a good fit for the Rams in the 2nd or 3rd round?

Mel Kiper
(2:57 PM)

Bryce is a developmental QB. You're coming out of the Baylor offense. He didn't have a great Senior Bowl week. He's probably a 3-4 round pick. He'd make a lot of sense then. He's a great kid. He would be a really good pick in the mid rounds. If you wait a couple of years and work with him, you could have a really nice QB.

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Joe (Princeton)

Are there any MLB's outside of Perryman that could be a good value and fit for the Giants in rd2?

Mel Kiper
(2:59 PM)

Stephone Anthony, Clemson. Good all around LB. Benardrick McKinney, maybe a second or third rounder. Kendricks, UCLA, maybe a third rounder. An underrated guy: Ben Heeney, Kansas, a good Day 3 pick.

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Mitch (Michigan)

Where do Gregory and Ray rank amongst pros such as Houston and Mack?

Mel Kiper
(3:00 PM)

Mack, to me, he was a spectacular prospect coming out. Gregory has to get stronger and prove he can stay healthy over the long haul. He has great explosiveness. Ray was productive. Has long arms, despite not having the height. He is supposedly going to test very well. If he does, then he could have a great rookie year. He could be a real factor. The third pick in the draft maybe.

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Mel Kiper
(3:01 PM)

The combine is coming up next week. Check out ESPN.com for the second mock draft! Chat next week!

 

[big dog cowboy]

Ben (Baton Rouge, LA)

Is Bud Dupree a first rounder? What are his strengths and where would he fit?

Mel Kiper
(2:56 PM)

He's a very good pass rusher. He's versatile, can play with his hands on the ground or on his feet. He has pass rush ability. I could have put him at Arizona at 24. That was where I thought about him. Baltimore at 26.

Might be my pet cat for us.

I see where Kiper doesn't have Dupree in his first round mock.

 

[DFWJC]

I agree with his assessments regarding RBs this year.

Plenty of value to be had later.

 

[Idgit]

Might be my pet cat for us.

I see where Kiper doesn't have Dupree in his first round mock.

I'd probably be hopping around in my living room if he's there. Don't think he will be, though, once the combine gets done with him.

 

[Risen Star]

I agree with his assessments regarding RBs this year.

Plenty of value to be had later.

There is, but the problem I have....and I say it every year....is the timing of the whole thing. The NFL Draft should be before veteran free agency. Here you have a team like the Cowboys who might decide to part ways with the league's leading rusher. They have marginal talent behind him. They don't go for a RB in FA in March as they figure they can get a back in the draft, but that's a guess. You don't know what is going to be there when you're picking. So you could be forced to reach for a back or miss out altogether. Now you're left with the same marginal talent at RB you had coming into the draft and only leftovers in FA.

It should be the other way around. Draft in March. If you don't find value there, you know you have to make a move in free agency to land a significant RB. There's no guessing at work.

 

[L-O-Jete]

There is, but the problem I have....and I say it every year....is the timing of the whole thing. The NFL Draft should be before veteran free agency. Here you have a team like the Cowboys who might decide to part ways with the league's leading rusher. They have marginal talent behind him. They don't go for a RB in FA in March as they figure they can get a back in the draft, but that's a guess. You don't know what is going to be there when you're picking. So you could be forced to reach for a back or miss out altogether. Now you're left with the same marginal talent at RB you had coming into the draft and only leftovers in FA.

It should be the other way around. Draft in March. If you don't find value there, you know you have to make a move in free agency to land a significant RB. There's no guessing at work.

I'm pretty sure there's not a single veteran player that would agree with you...

 

[KingintheNorth]

Yeah, the players (already in the union) wouldn't like a diminished job market where teams decide to fill openings with cheaper, younger players.

 

[Risen Star]

I'm pretty sure there's not a single veteran player that would agree with you...

Which means nothing to me.

 

[L-O-Jete]

Which means nothing to me.

But it does mean you won't be seeing the draft moved before free agency...

 

[Risen Star]

But it does mean you won't be seeing the draft moved before free agency...

I never said it would be, but it should be.

I wouldn't rule it out. The players don't run the league.

 

[Risen Star]

Yeah, the players (already in the union) wouldn't like a diminished job market where teams decide to fill openings with cheaper, younger players.

I don't see it that way. For every instance where a team feels good about a cheaper option from the draft there will be a team that doesn't feel good and is likely to spend more in free agency than they would the other way with the draft as a fall back option.

For instance, if the Cowboys couldn't find a RB they liked in the draft first they are far more likely to get aggressive in free agency to fill that need.

 

[big dog cowboy]

There is, but the problem I have....and I say it every year....is the timing of the whole thing. The NFL Draft should be before veteran free agency. Here you have a team like the Cowboys who might decide to part ways with the league's leading rusher. They have marginal talent behind him. They don't go for a RB in FA in March as they figure they can get a back in the draft, but that's a guess. You don't know what is going to be there when you're picking. So you could be forced to reach for a back or miss out altogether. Now you're left with the same marginal talent at RB you had coming into the draft and only leftovers in FA.

It should be the other way around. Draft in March. If you don't find value there, you know you have to make a move in free agency to land a significant RB. There's no guessing at work.

Got a question. Wouldn't it be the same scenero if the draft was before FA?

Now - They don't go for a RB in FA in March as they figure they can get a back in the draft, but that's a guess. You don't know what is going to be there when you're picking. So you could be forced to reach for a back or miss out altogether.

If changed - They don't go for a RB in the draft as they figure they can get a back in FA, but that's a guess. You don't know what is going to be there in FA. So you could be forced to reach for a back or miss out altogether.

If you say "Draft in March. If you don't find value there, you know you have to make a move in free agency to land a significant RB."

I say Draft in late April. If you don't find value there, you know you have to make a move in the draft to land a significant RB.

Nothing can be taken for granted. Everything is a guess. Either way you have to make a move. You could be stuck with a marginal RB in either case. Or am I missing something? Like it would be easier just to resign Murray to a reasonable contract.

 

[KingintheNorth]

I don't see it that way. For every instance where a team feels good about a cheaper option from the draft there will be a team that doesn't feel good and is likely to spend more in free agency than they would the other way with the draft as a fall back option.

For instance, if the Cowboys couldn't find a RB they liked in the draft first they are far more likely to get aggressive in free agency to fill that need.

Yeah, I could definitely see that but I think the majority of teams would pass on higher price free agents since they already filled that need with a lower-price draft pick.

 

[Risen Star]

Got a question. Wouldn't it be the same scenero if the draft was before FA?

Now - They don't go for a RB in FA in March as they figure they can get a back in the draft, but that's a guess. You don't know what is going to be there when you're picking. So you could be forced to reach for a back or miss out altogether.

If changed - They don't go for a RB in the draft as they figure they can get a back in FA, but that's a guess. You don't know what is going to be there in FA. So you could be forced to reach for a back or miss out altogether.

If you say "Draft in March. If you don't find value there, you know you have to make a move in free agency to land a significant RB."

I say Draft in late April. If you don't find value there, you know you have to make a move in the draft to land a significant RB.

Nothing can be taken for granted. Everything is a guess. Either way you have to make a move. You could be stuck with a marginal RB in either case. Or am I missing something? Like it would be easier just to resign Murray to a reasonable contract.

You build teams through the draft. The object there, for everyone, shouldn't be filling holes. It should be talent acquisition. Upgrade your overall talent base with the opportunities that present themselves in the draft. That is unknown, unless you have prior knowledge of 31 other draft boards across the league. Even if you did, you still wouldn't know as that board will have players grouped together for an on the clock decision of which way that team will go.

Once that process is over you fill your needs, things you couldn't do maintaining the integrity of your board in the draft, in veteran free agency. The problem is if you do that now, you're picking up leftovers. Free agency started in March.

It'd be a much more sensible process with the draft prior to FA. The draft is the unknown. Get that out of the way first so teams have a true picture of what their needs are for the new season.

 

[Alexander]

It'd be a much more sensible process with the draft prior to FA. The draft is the unknown. Get that out of the way first so teams have a true picture of what their needs are for the new season.

That would dumb it down so bad that the competitive advantage of smart teams would be eliminated.

It would make it easier for teams to throw money at problems to simply clean up.

I like the current system. To me, the real value of an organization comes to how it drafts talent. This would allow a do-over that I do not care for.

 

[big dog cowboy]

It'd be a much more sensible process with the draft prior to FA. The draft is the unknown. Get that out of the way first so teams have a true picture of what their needs are for the new season.

I undertand the thought process (especially building a team thru the draft) but FA is a big unknown also.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

You build teams through the draft. The object there, for everyone, shouldn't be filling holes. It should be talent acquisition. Upgrade your overall talent base with the opportunities that present themselves in the draft. That is unknown, unless you have prior knowledge of 31 other draft boards across the league. Even if you did, you still wouldn't know as that board will have players grouped together for an on the clock decision of which way that team will go.

Once that process is over you fill your needs, things you couldn't do maintaining the integrity of your board in the draft, in veteran free agency. The problem is if you do that now, you're picking up leftovers. Free agency started in March.

It'd be a much more sensible process with the draft prior to FA. The draft is the unknown. Get that out of the way first so teams have a true picture of what their needs are for the new season.

I agree that the draft is more for talent acquisition, but I think that's still the way it plays out currently for the most part. In my opinion, there's two stages of free agency: before the draft and after the draft. Before the draft, you resign your own guys who you can't afford to lose, then you have an opportunity to sign some other top free agents on other teams. The goal for the most part is to fill all the holes in free agency before the draft so that you can draft the best available players. So, with all the holes filled, you can get a guy like a Zack Martin who was more a luxury than a necessity since the O-line would have been good enough to be above average even without Martin. And since we tried to fill all possible holes before hand, we were able to take Martin and he elevated our O-line to elite. Then after the draft is over, if you still have pressing needs, you fill them with cheap free agents.

 

[Risen Star]

That would dumb it down so bad that the competitive advantage of smart teams would be eliminated.

It would make it easier for teams to throw money at problems to simply clean up.

I like the current system. To me, the real value of an organization comes to how it drafts talent. This would allow a do-over that I do not care for.

So you're saying the smart teams know what they're going to get in the draft by the time FA starts in March?

If you subscribe to the theory that teams should fill holes in FA and take BPA talent in the draft then why would it make sense to fill your holes before knowing what you end up with in the draft? This doesn't make sense to me.

 

[L-O-Jete]

I don't see it that way. For every instance where a team feels good about a cheaper option from the draft there will be a team that doesn't feel good and is likely to spend more in free agency than they would the other way with the draft as a fall back option.

For instance, if the Cowboys couldn't find a RB they liked in the draft first they are far more likely to get aggressive in free agency to fill that need.

But they wouldn't have to outbid the teams that did get that RB they liked...

It's very basic supply and demand, if you get a big shippment of talent (draft), you won't be as desperate for it after...