Kiper chat 4/17/14....

[Risen Star]

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50423/nfl-draft-insider-mel-kiper


B-More Browns (Baltimore )

Hey Mel, you now have Johnny Manziel going to the Browns at 4. Does he fit Cleveland football and Kyle S. offense?

Mel Kiper
(2:05 PM)

Yes. He is the kind of guy that can create and improvise. He's an underrated passer from the pocket too. This notion that he has to be running around and scrambling isn't accurate.

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John (Wisc)

If the Packers come away with Ryan Shazier or CJ Mosley in the 1st and Deonne Bucannon in the 2nd round. How would you feel about that draft?

Mel Kiper
(2:06 PM)

That would help the defense. They need a safety. Shazier or Mosley would be an upgrade on the front seven.

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Tom Savage (Unknown)

Mel, is there any chance I am picked in the top 50? I heard teams are falling in love with me.

Mel Kiper
(2:06 PM)

It wouldn't shock me if he went to Cincy at 55. Arizona at 52. He could be a late two, early three. he has one of the best arms of any QB in the draft.

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Brian (Seattle, WA)

Mel! No defensive line for Dallas in your Mock? Can you play DE for us?

Mel Kiper
(2:07 PM)

You would like to see Aaron Donald there. If he's there, he would be a nice pick. But they also need a safety. If they could get Donald and then Ward at safety, that would be good. But I had them getting a OL in the first round.

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donald (Da shore)

Why don't u think Cj Mosley is more highly touted seeing that there's not many great insidelinbackers in the draft?

Mel Kiper
(2:08 PM)

He's not a pass rusher. Pass rushing OLB will get pushed up. If this were 1995, he would be a top 10 pick. This is a pass happy league. He's a heckuva player, but he doesn't present the value of a OLB.

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Jason (Canada)

Who are the Rams most likely targeting with the 2nd first round pick

Mel Kiper
(2:09 PM)

It depends on what they do at 2. If they go OT at 2, you could be looking at CB or safety, like Pryor. They have to come out of the draft with a OT, S and CB. Those are the big areas of need. And also add a WR.

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Nick (HD) [via mobile]

If you were a NFL GM which QB are you drafting first?

Mel Kiper
(2:10 PM)

Depending upon the team, there are certain fits that are better. If I'm Cleveland, I'm looking Manziel. If I'm Minnesota, I'm looking at Bortles or Carr. If I'm Arizona, I'm looking Bridgewater or Carr. If I'm Houston in the second round, I'm looking Bridgewater.

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Keanu (Honolulu)

Hey Mel, the Dolphins have been bringing in WRs for workouts, do you think there is a chance they take one in the early rounds?

Mel Kiper
(2:11 PM)

A WR for the Dolphins? I don't see it. They could use a LB, two OL. WR in maybe round 4 or 5, but I don't see it early.

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Kevin (Toronto)

Hi Mel, Do you buy into the rumors that Detroit are considering moving up to grab Evans or Watkins? Would this be a wise move for them?

Mel Kiper
(2:11 PM)

To get Watkins, they'd have to move up to 2. That would be a stretch. To get Evans, they'd have to get up to 6.

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Leon (Detroit)

more likely to fall to the second round marquise lee or kelvin benjamin?

Mel Kiper
(2:12 PM)

Both could. I would say it's 50-50. Both are in the mix to be late 1s or early 2s. I have them both in the first right now. But could one of those two drop to the early second? Yes.

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Stephan (NY)

Whats your scouting report on Cody Latimer, he seems to be jumping up draft boards?

Mel Kiper
(2:13 PM)

He's been jumping up because he's a big WR who has run in the sub 4.4 range. He as strong hands. He is a kid who was very consistent. Great pass catcher. He did 23 reps. He's a strong WR. His physicality. He has a chance to be a late first rounder. He could go betwen 22-35.

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Tr3sdaddy (MI)

I'm infatuated with Jared Abbrederis, What's your take on his skill set?

Mel Kiper
(2:14 PM)

He has to get stronger and a better job of handling press coverage. But he's a good route runner. Sure handed.

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Jeff (Pittsburgh)

Does David Carr's disappointing NFL career affect Derek Carr's potential in the minds of NFL GMs?

Mel Kiper
(2:14 PM)

I don't think it's a factor. He's not going to go No. 1 overall. He'll go in the 20-35 range. He has gained a lot of momentum. He has a quick release. He has good character. I think he has built momentum. I have him going to Arizona at 20.

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Frank (Maryland)

Mel I am a Browns fan what are the chances of Cleveland taking Sammy Watkins with there first pick and Carr with the second first rounder

Mel Kiper
(2:16 PM)

Watkins may not be there and Carr won't be there in the second round. So, they wouldn't get either one. They could take Manziel at 4. Then take Fuller, CB, at 26, then take Adams out of Fresno State at WR at 35. Or take Latimer at 26 and then CB at 35, like Stanley Jean-Baptiste.

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Paul (NJ)

assuming Donald is gone at 14 when the Bears pick, who would you project they would pick? If he is gone, does it make sense for them to trade down 10 or so picks and take one of the corners or a safety?

Mel Kiper
(2:16 PM)

If he's gone, they could look at Clinton Dix. Pryor. Dennard. I would say the secondary would have to be addressed.

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Matt (Chicago)

What round do you see Michael Sam going and what teams might be interested?

Mel Kiper
(2:17 PM)

5 or 6 round.

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Ed (The OC)

Mel, If Sammy Watkins falls to the Raiders, do they get him or are they set on getting help on D?

Mel Kiper
(2:17 PM)

I think you have to look at Watkins. Or Mack. If they're both there that's a tough decision. I think Watkins is gone by 5.

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John (Wisc)

How many safety's will go in the first round?

Mel Kiper
(2:17 PM)

2. That would be Dix and Pryor. No other safety is in the first round discussion.

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B Mand (Sarasota, FL)

Is Jernigan's performance in the NC game a big reason why he is slipping, or does it have more to do with his workouts?

Mel Kiper
(2:18 PM)

It's based on the full evaluation grades. Go back and look at the film. You have to have pass rush ability in this league. He has to be a system fit. He's an early second round pick to Oakland, is where I have him. He didn't wow me over.

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Steve (Afghanistan)

How common is it for top draft athletes like Clowney to refuse requests for workouts with pro teams for fear of getting injured?

Mel Kiper
(2:19 PM)

Clowney has shown everything he can to everybody. Everyone has had more than enough opportunity to know what they need. Let's face it, he's going 1 or 2, at total worst No. 3. There are only a handful of teams that are remotely in the sweepstakes. Houston, St. Louis, Jacksonville.

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Paul (Buffalo)

Are any teams concerned about the fact that Mack played in a non BCS conference?

Mel Kiper
(2:21 PM)

No. The Ohio State game ended any talk about that. He dominated against the Buckeyes. That game showed he could play anywhere. He was a freak talent. He's got a great attitude. He's intense. Against Clowney, he played in the SEC. If it's a debate between them, then that will put Clowney ahead. But I think Mack is clearly the second best defensive player in the draft.

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BJR (DC)

Mel - If you were the Colts GM aren't you regretting this Richardson trade? Who would you take if in the first round if you still had the pick if you were him?

Mel Kiper
(2:22 PM)

It's the 26th pick overall. At 26, if you're the Colts, you're looking at one of the WRs. Jordan Matthews. Cody Latimer.

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Ed (The OC)

What team(s) do you think are actively shopping their top 10 pick?

Mel Kiper
(2:22 PM)

St. Louis at 2 would be the main one. Snead, the GM, if Clowney goes No. 1, it will hurt their trade value. If he doesn't, it will help them tremendously. Or, maybe someone wants to move up to get Watkins.

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John (Colorado)

Who has the higher upside as a 5 tech in a 3-4: Ra'Shede Hageman or Stephon Tuitt?

Mel Kiper
(2:23 PM)

Tuitt is the ideal 3-4 DE. Hageman can play that spot effectively. Hageman could go to New England and Tuitt to Seattle.

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Andrew (I met beadle)

Who is your number one sleeper that could go in the first round Mel?

Mel Kiper
(2:24 PM)

Cody Latimer. Jordan Matthews. Chris Borland.

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Mike (NC)

Who do you see the niners taking in the first two rounds.

Mel Kiper
(2:25 PM)

I will say Jordan Matthews. Then in the second round Phillip Gaines. Then Marcus Martin.

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Sam (work)

Can Zach martin play inside at either guard position?

Mel Kiper
(2:25 PM)

Yes. He can play LT, RT or OG.

Mel Kiper
(2:25 PM)

He's a mid first rounder.

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Peter (Nebraska)

Mel, do you see Kansas City going with a WR or DB in the first round?

Mel Kiper
(2:26 PM)

Wait a minute... Mort is here. He'll answer this one...

Chris Mortensen
(2:27 PM)

Considering that it's deeper at WR, you can wait to the second round. But you can't at safety. But they lost McCluster, so if Odell Beckham is there. It's double talk, but it's smart double talk.

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Adam (Phoenix)

Im not enamored with the Titans current RB situation and not up in arms over Carlos Hyde.....who else is behind him that would be a good fit in the 2nd or 4th round?

Mel Kiper
(2:28 PM)

You could look at Bishop Sanke from Washington. He could make sense. After him, Tre Mason in the 2-3 round. Jeremy Hill in the 3-4 round. If you want a true sleeper, Terrance West, from Towson in the 6-7 round.

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Max (San Diego)

Mort, what's a more glaring need for the Chargers, DT or CB? And who do you think they take in the 1st round?

Mel Kiper
(2:29 PM)

They could look for Bradley Roby in the first or Anthony Barr. So either, CB or OLB. Then in the second, maybe a WR.

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Drew (Mpls)

It seems like the biggest knock on Carr is that he gets antsy around a pass rush. Is that fixable?

Mel Kiper
(2:30 PM)

That's a toughness issue. Hanging in there. You'll look at the USC game and Utah State game. He was handled by tough defenses. That's why he's not a top 10 pick. When he played against quality defenses, he wasn't as productive.

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Dan (St. Louis)

Where is the better safety draft value - Dix or Pryor in round 1 or Ward in round 2?

Mel Kiper
(2:30 PM)

Ward in the second will be a real good pick for somebody. Baltimore, Dallas, St. Louis. He's a ball hawk. He has good hands. He is ideally suited for today's NFL. He can cover, even at 193 pounds. That's the best value.

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Code (New Orleans)

Mel, if you're selecting for the Saints are you looking at OL, WR or CB in Rd. 1?

Mel Kiper
(2:31 PM)

For the Saints, I'm looking at WR, like Latimer, Davis, Matthews. If I'm not looking there, I'm looking at a CB or a pass rusher. Anthony Barr at OLB.

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John (Orlando)

Why do you think Manziel is a better pick than the other QBs in the draft? I feel Bortles and has better skillset potential. Plus, would Manziel fit 'in' with Cleveland.

Mel Kiper
(2:32 PM)

Everybody is all over the place on the QBs. It's not Manziel being the best of the group, it's who you hear he may end up with. It's the process of elimination. Who will a team NOT pick? It's a puzzle with the mock first round. That's why it changes from mock to mock. Needs change from day to day too.

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Tony (Rochester)

What drove you to having Lewan go off the board ahead of Matthews?

Mel Kiper
(2:33 PM)

Nasty and he had a better overall year.

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Ed (The OC)

Mel, Is Denver going to be looking for a QB to take the helm from Peyton in this draft? If so, who do you see them getting?

Mel Kiper
(2:34 PM)

They drafted a kid a couple of years ago that they thought would be the guy -- Brock Osweiller. You drafted him in the second round. Will you draft another one early? Not unless you think he's not the guy.

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Greg Dunn (Jacksonville/ Work)

Jacksonville has been addressing many issues. That being said, should we draft a solid QB as the 3rd overall pick, or go with the OL from the university of Buffalo for the pick and why?

Mel Kiper
(2:34 PM)

You could go Sammy Watkins. They could go with OLB like Mack. Or they could wait to the second round to take the QB, like Garoppolo. Zach Mettenberger. Teddy Bridgewater is there, maybe.


Mel Kiper
(2:35 PM)

AJ McCarron. Can't forget about him either.

 

[Risen Star]

Jeff (Dallas)

Hey mel hope your having a good day.Tell me, where do you see Jackson Jeffcoat going. Where is the best place for him to land in terms of fit?

Mel Kiper
(2:35 PM)

4 or 5 round.

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Matt (Ohio)

How would have EJ Manuel been ranked if he came out this year against the other QBs?

Mel Kiper
(2:36 PM)

There was mixed opinion on him this year. Had he come out in this draft, he probably would have been the 3-4 QB taken.

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Mike (Cincy)

For the Bengals - what's their best case scenario for a CB falling to them in the first round?

Mel Kiper
(2:36 PM)

It could be Bradley Roby. Kyle Fuller. Jason Verrett. That would be the first round guys. In the second round, if they wait, Phillip Gaines, Pierre Desir, LaMarcus Joyner. Those are second round possibilities.

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Rob (New York)

What is the real likelihood of the Jets going defense in round 1?

Mel Kiper
(2:37 PM)

They need a CB. They have to get one. That's definitely a CB. They also could use a WR. TE in the second round. They could look at Brandin Cooks. Maybe an Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. But they need to get a CB at some point.

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Adam (Baltimore)

In the event the Ravens decide to draft a WR, who do you think would be the best fit? Marqise Lee feels similar to previous Ozzie draft picks in that he was previously highly touted but looks like his stock is declining as we get closer to draft day.

Mel Kiper
(2:38 PM)

First of all, I think they take a safety. Pryor, I think. I would say, for them, at WR, Beckham.

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Shawn (Detroit)

Any chance the Raiders take Mike Evans at 5 if Watkins is off the board?

Mel Kiper
(2:40 PM)

They could. Yeah. I just think Mack would be the best player at that point, if he's there.

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Matt (Stratford, NJ)

Love your work, Mel....what is going to be the biggest shocker of round 1?

Mel Kiper
(2:41 PM)

St. Louis at 2 was a tough pick to predict. How far to drop Bridgewater was surprising. Carr too. 13-17 trying to figure those picks out was tricky. How many WRs. I was considering 9-10 WRs, where to put them in was tough.

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Isaiah (Cottonport)

What position should the Giants take in the first round?

Mel Kiper
(2:42 PM)

I think TE. Eric Ebron. They have to get weapons for Eli. They need WR help. TE help. But you can't do it all in one pick. Ebron is a good start.

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John (Colorado)

Has Jordan Matthews done enough to go in the first round?

Mel Kiper
(2:43 PM)

He's been solid. He has size. He ran better than people thought. But he did have some drops. He works hard. He will block. He puts in the time. He does some good things.

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Code (New Orleans)

The depth of this draft seems to present a unique challenge - relative to past drafts - in trying to predict the placement of players with teams. At a minimum it will make for an unpredictable draft.

Mel Kiper
(2:44 PM)

I think it will be very unpredictable. There are about 7 elite players, but there are a lot of decent to good players whose ratings are volatile. There is tough to build consensus. There are positions where there is depth at the top and then a major drop off. There are 100 underclassmen that people are trying to figure out. That was a record number of underclassmen.

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Jake (Hockeytown)

Why haven't we heard more about the 49ers possibly trading up? It seems they are close to a Championship and currently have about 100 picks.

Mel Kiper
(2:45 PM)

I don't think they'll stay put. They have been aggressive. They moved up to get Eric Reed. They need to add a CB, WR, and a center. Luckily for them, the most depth is at CB and WR. There are some good centers too. The draft sets up well for the 49ers.

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Sam (Annandale, NJ)

Who are some of the overrated players in this class?

Mel Kiper
(2:47 PM)

Zach Mettenberger, QB, LSU; Tom Savage, QB, Pitt; Logan Thomas, VT, QB; Jarick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern; Troy Niklas, TE, Notre Dame; Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri; Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State.

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Jeff (NY, NY)

After the top 2 WR how much of a drop is there between the 3rd and 10th best WR?

Mel Kiper
(2:50 PM)

The third best is Brandin Cooks, I think. Right around 10 is Bruce Ellington, South Carolina, a similar player. Odell Beckham is the fourth best WR and Jarvis Landry is the 11th best, his teammate. And they were pretty equal players. There isn't much drop between 3-10, 4-11, 5-15. This WR class goes 20-25 deep with quality WRs. Right now, the 17th best WR, Alan Robinson from Penn State, Paul Richardson is 18. Martavis Bryant could be a third rounder and he's a first round talent.

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Otto (CA)

Do you like Dion Bailey of USC? I couldn't get a good read on his coverage skills as a Safety. They were exceptional as a linebacker and he was always around the ball.

Mel Kiper
(2:50 PM)

He's a safety/LB. Good special teams player. He has value in maybe the 6th round.

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JF (NYC)

Is Marcus Marriota regretting his decision to stay? Would he have been the number one overall pick?

Mel Kiper
(2:51 PM)

No. Not ahead of Clowney. He really needed another year. He didn't surface as the elite QB as I thought he would be. He needs to work on his accuracy throwing down the field.

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Blake (Texas)

Where do you see Jordan Tripp going?

Mel Kiper
(2:51 PM)

Third or fourth round.

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John (Colorado)

Who are the centers that have a shot at going on day 2?

Mel Kiper
(2:52 PM)

Marcus Martin, USC; Weston Richburg, Colorado State; Russell Bodine, UNC.

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Matt (Ohio)

Mel, any chance Ryan Shazier drops to my skins in round 2?

Mel Kiper
(2:52 PM)

I would say that's slim.

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Sean (DC)

Do you think Louis Nix is one of the more undervalued players in this draft. He played injured last year which seems to have severely depressed his stock. If healthy, he is a mid-first round talent, right?

Mel Kiper
(2:53 PM)

He is a NT. He has value as a 3-4 NT. But for a lot of teams, he doesn't have value, because he's not a pass rusher. If you're a team like Pittsburgh or San Diego, then he has value.

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Nick (NYC)

Kevin Pierre-Louis of BC: Can he enter the round 4-5 discussion?

Mel Kiper
(2:53 PM)

Easily. He was a productive, reliable player. He can cover. He has great range. He's very athletic. He's a weakside OLB. He has good value in early Day 3.

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John (Colorado)

Is there a receiver Denver could look to add on day 2?

Mel Kiper
(2:55 PM)

They're at the end of the second round, so Josh Huff from Oregon, Donte Moncrief, Robert Herron.

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JF (NYC)

If the 49ers cut Aldon Smith, do they trade up for a pash rush specialist a la Anthony Barr?

Mel Kiper
(2:55 PM)

It depends on what happens with him. And with Bowman coming off the injury. You go from a great LB group to a lot of question marks. That's become a need.

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Christian (Hays, KS)

Can Ty Zimmerman get picked in the 5-6 round range? That Kid has so much heart. All the intangibles are there.

Mel Kiper
(2:56 PM)

I have him more of a 6-7 round range or priority free agent. Good backup player to have. He could end up a starter in the right situation.

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Angela (San Fran )

Is TE Ebron a fit for Pittsburgh at pick #15?

Mel Kiper
(2:56 PM)

I don't think he goes at 15. I think he's gone by then. Pittsburgh would have to look at WR, CB, OL or DL.

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Adam (Michigan)

Hey Mel, you have the Lions taking Clinton-Dix instead of Justin Gilbert in the 1st. What do you think about the Lions taking Gilbert in the 1st round and then grabbing Jimmie Ward or Deone Bucannon in the 2nd?

Mel Kiper
(2:57 PM)

They could. They could. They could go CB, safety or S then CB. They could get Gilbert and then Ward. Or they could trade off of 10 and look at Pryor. I think he's underrated in this draft. Very underappreciated.

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Tony (Rochester)

If the Bills don't get one of the top tackles in the first round, what alternate direction might they go?

Mel Kiper
(2:58 PM)

If they don't get a OT, they could look WR, S, TE.

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Jim (Little Falls, NY)

Hi Mel - Who will have better career Geno Smith or Teddy Bridgewater??

Mel Kiper
(2:58 PM)

Bridgewater will end up with the higher grade. The jury is still out on what kind of QB Geno Smith can be.

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Scott (Westminster, CO)

If Eric Fisher was in this draft, he's probably a top ___ pick.

Mel Kiper
(2:59 PM)

If he were in this draft, he would have been the 4 or 5th OT taken.


Mel Kiper
(2:59 PM)

Probably mid-first round.

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Troy (KY)

What is Dallas' biggest need this draft and can they draft to fill that need?

Mel Kiper
(3:00 PM)

Their biggest need is DL, they need a DE and DT. Then you would say safety. OG next. WR.

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Mel Kiper
(3:00 PM)

We covered a lot of ground today. The Mock 4.0, which includes the second round is up on ESPN.com.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

He says our biggest needs are DE, DT, OG and WR but he has us taking a OT in the 1st because "Martin makes sense as a player who can sure up the right tackle position."

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

He says our biggest needs are DE, DT, OG and WR but he has us taking a OT in the 1st because "Martin makes sense as a player who can sure up the right tackle position."

Hard to say with any of these guys but he might be giving his own opinion on what our needs are and projecting who we might take, based on what he's heard. Who knows?

 

[Brooksey]

He says our biggest needs are DE, DT, OG and WR but he has us taking a OT in the 1st because "Martin makes sense as a player who can sure up the right tackle position."

He's an idiot.

 

[Risen Star]

He says our biggest needs are DE, DT, OG and WR but he has us taking a OT in the 1st because "Martin makes sense as a player who can sure up the right tackle position."

Only a fool drafts for need.

 

[tm1119]

He says our biggest needs are DE, DT, OG and WR but he has us taking a OT in the 1st because "Martin makes sense as a player who can sure up the right tackle position."

Martin would start at OG day 1 no doubt

 

[Brooksey]

BPA and need is what you are looking for. We need the BPA at our needed positions unless say a Sammy Watkins drops.

Martin would start at OG day 1 no doubt

If we draft Martin, it's because he's the best guard on the board and we need guards. His versatility is attractive but I don't think we draft Martin as Doug Free's replacement or as a "RT" as Kiper suggests.

 

[Fredd]

I always like these chats...you get to see if your own ideas and thoughts match those of someone that does this for a living (whether good at it or not)

 

[waving monkey]

Only a fool drafts for need.

Only a fool drafts for need.

not always

 

[Tezz]

Saw some games of Cody Latimer and he is the real deal