dallasfan said:
I think Ernie Simms is going to be a great player, but when I see stuff like this, I believe that Mel Kiper Jr. is really just the name of a program that allows you to input a team's roster/player production, then it selects which player at a need position is more likely to fall to them, completely ignoring if they fit the system. They probably won't fix this until Mel Kiper version 3.0.
Actually, this is a problem with all draft predictions and predictors, especially with the early predictions. They'll get to a point where they have good players and no teams in that range with that kind of positional need, and so you'll see a comment like:
The Flatbush Frogheads have other needs, but they couldn't pass up the Dimmsdale Brothers as their starting free safeties. Sarcasm of that quality doesn't come along very often, and they're sure to scoop them up.
It's called "fitting the mock draft to your idea of player value"..if you want to be impolite, you can call it dumping players into a slot to get them off your value list.
Later on, it's not that the prognosticaters get any smarter, but they start hearing things from execs on the various teams about who they like, and even if they think Player X sucks, suddenly he gets moved into the appropriate draft slot (for those with War Room access, think of how they treated LaDanian Tomlinson until they caught wind of San Diego's interest in the runner).
And then if Draft Pundit B thinks Draft Pundit A is onto something, he'll steal the info.
Kiper has a good quality, which is that he is something of a "talent optimist" and often sniffs out early a player's rising value. But it's something of a double edged sword, in that some of the people he touts aren't as good as he makes them out to be.
To be honest though, I think people object to Kiper for reasons of style: his pompadour is too big, his teeth too white, too loud, he comes off as a bit of a salesman (which he used to be). I tend to like him because I think he is a better writer than most of them. Unlike many pundits, he can generate a sound bite and turn a phrase.
