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Knee injury won't hurt draft stock as much as some think
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider/Male Model
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...ffects-todd-gurley-draft-stock-2015-nfl-draft
It's my belief that Todd Gurley had a chance to be a top-15 pick in the 2015 NFL draft if he finished the current season healthy. His ACL injury changes things, of course.
But I don't want to underscore that top-15 possibility as some "what could have been" note about what happens if he stays healthy, or doesn't play again for Georgia after the suspension. I say that because it's context for that fact that I still believe Gurley can be taken fairly high in the 2015 NFL draft relative to other running backs. When you're as good as Gurley, you can "drop" due to an injury and still go pretty high, relatively speaking. When he's 100 percent, Gurley is a special player, and he should be at 100 percent for an NFL team at some point next year.
If we're assuming he enters the 2015 NFL draft, let's consider a few factors and where Gurley could end up.
The first-round evaluation
Gurley grades so well -- he was a top-10 player on my Big Board before the injury -- because he's such a complete talent at the position. He's an outstanding combination of speed and power, a 235-pound player who can both run through linebackers who don't have him squared up and then away from safeties and corners when he gets into the open field. He has pretty good hands and is particularly dangerous when catching passes, because when he's past the line of scrimmage or out in space, there's a chance he's as big or easily bigger than anybody left between him and the end zone. There haven't been any running backs taken in Round 1 over the last two years, but that's also indicative of the fact that teams know you need multiple good RBs, so you can't spend too much money on just one. However, it's also because there hasn't been an available running back that's as good as Gurley.
Again, the position isn't really devalued -- it's more about how you have to distribute pay at the position. Gurley is the kind of player who breaks that trend.
Stop any Marcus Lattimore comparisons
I've heard Lattimore's name mentioned more than once over the last few days, and it's simply a ridiculous comparison. I get the fact that Lattimore got hurt with the NFL not too far away, but that was a second devastating knee injury, and what happened to Lattimore in his junior year was considered to be a possible career-ender the moment it happened. Nobody is thinking the same thing with Gurley.
Given the things medicine and rehabilitation can accomplish at this point, Gurley probably will be moving around pretty well by the combine in late February, and it wouldn't shock me at all if he's able to to participate in training camp activities come August. So while it's an optimistic projection, I really do think Gurley can help an NFL team in 2015. I think it's obvious that he'll be brought along slowly, but I don't think he's a player where you just assume this is a "redshirt" situation or that he'll be on a reserve list.
Where he ends up drafted
I believe Gurley has a chance to go somewhere in Round 2 or early in Round 3. We have seen players like Tank Carradine and Ryan Broyles suffer similar knee injuries late in the season and still land in Round 2 in recent years, and we also saw Dominique Easley land in Round 1 last season off a September injury, though I questioned the value on the Easley pick. Beyond that, there are plenty of running backs who have come back from injury and had fruitful careers. If you're asking why he drops even if he can return to full health, it's partly because Gurley has had other maladies (he missed four games last season), and because the draft position at least somewhat reflects what a team hopes to get in the first year. After all, these guys get paid based on pick slot.
If Gurley lands somewhere in Round 2, it would still make him one of the top two or three running backs drafted -- again, a strong compliment to his talent. Melvin Gordon is now the clear leader to be the top running back in the 2015 class, but I don't think anybody will be surprised if at this time next year both he and Gurley are putting up good numbers in the NFL.
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider/Male Model
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...ffects-todd-gurley-draft-stock-2015-nfl-draft
It's my belief that Todd Gurley had a chance to be a top-15 pick in the 2015 NFL draft if he finished the current season healthy. His ACL injury changes things, of course.
But I don't want to underscore that top-15 possibility as some "what could have been" note about what happens if he stays healthy, or doesn't play again for Georgia after the suspension. I say that because it's context for that fact that I still believe Gurley can be taken fairly high in the 2015 NFL draft relative to other running backs. When you're as good as Gurley, you can "drop" due to an injury and still go pretty high, relatively speaking. When he's 100 percent, Gurley is a special player, and he should be at 100 percent for an NFL team at some point next year.
If we're assuming he enters the 2015 NFL draft, let's consider a few factors and where Gurley could end up.
The first-round evaluation
Gurley grades so well -- he was a top-10 player on my Big Board before the injury -- because he's such a complete talent at the position. He's an outstanding combination of speed and power, a 235-pound player who can both run through linebackers who don't have him squared up and then away from safeties and corners when he gets into the open field. He has pretty good hands and is particularly dangerous when catching passes, because when he's past the line of scrimmage or out in space, there's a chance he's as big or easily bigger than anybody left between him and the end zone. There haven't been any running backs taken in Round 1 over the last two years, but that's also indicative of the fact that teams know you need multiple good RBs, so you can't spend too much money on just one. However, it's also because there hasn't been an available running back that's as good as Gurley.
Again, the position isn't really devalued -- it's more about how you have to distribute pay at the position. Gurley is the kind of player who breaks that trend.
Stop any Marcus Lattimore comparisons
I've heard Lattimore's name mentioned more than once over the last few days, and it's simply a ridiculous comparison. I get the fact that Lattimore got hurt with the NFL not too far away, but that was a second devastating knee injury, and what happened to Lattimore in his junior year was considered to be a possible career-ender the moment it happened. Nobody is thinking the same thing with Gurley.
Given the things medicine and rehabilitation can accomplish at this point, Gurley probably will be moving around pretty well by the combine in late February, and it wouldn't shock me at all if he's able to to participate in training camp activities come August. So while it's an optimistic projection, I really do think Gurley can help an NFL team in 2015. I think it's obvious that he'll be brought along slowly, but I don't think he's a player where you just assume this is a "redshirt" situation or that he'll be on a reserve list.
Where he ends up drafted
I believe Gurley has a chance to go somewhere in Round 2 or early in Round 3. We have seen players like Tank Carradine and Ryan Broyles suffer similar knee injuries late in the season and still land in Round 2 in recent years, and we also saw Dominique Easley land in Round 1 last season off a September injury, though I questioned the value on the Easley pick. Beyond that, there are plenty of running backs who have come back from injury and had fruitful careers. If you're asking why he drops even if he can return to full health, it's partly because Gurley has had other maladies (he missed four games last season), and because the draft position at least somewhat reflects what a team hopes to get in the first year. After all, these guys get paid based on pick slot.
If Gurley lands somewhere in Round 2, it would still make him one of the top two or three running backs drafted -- again, a strong compliment to his talent. Melvin Gordon is now the clear leader to be the top running back in the 2015 class, but I don't think anybody will be surprised if at this time next year both he and Gurley are putting up good numbers in the NFL.