Kyler Murray Picks--

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by Alexander, Feb 11, 2019.

  1. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Which does zero to erase the other stats.

    They let him throw the ball and a lot.
    He had mixed results.
    They won less than half the games.
  2. Aerolithe_Lion

    Aerolithe_Lion Well-Known Member

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    They wont 0 in 2017. That's the team he won 6 games with, literally one of the most impressive rookie performances in history.

    And dozens of QBs have been asked throw a ton their rookie seasons. Manning, Wentz, Luck, Elway, Stafford... none threw what he did in only 13 games.
    Cover 2 likes this.
  3. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    The QB conference thing is just dumb.

    The best QB in football is a guy who was mediocre in the Big 10.
    The most talented went to Cal.
    The best to come out in the last decade went to a Big 12 school.

    The highest rated(by quarterback Rating) SEC QB last year was Dak with Cam a bit behind.
    They were the only 2 in the top 15. NONE were top 10.
    dogberry and Robbieac like this.
  4. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    It wasn't that impressive.
    The Browns were a lot of peoples pre-season playoff pick.
    They have accumulated a ton of young talent.

    Mayfield may well be great but it is hardly proven.
    That was not a top 10 NFL rookie season. Adjusted for era it may not even be top 25.
    Only homers would suggest such.
    It was exciting and gave long suffering CLE fans something to watch but results were a large MEH.
    Mayfield needs to better in every area in year 2.
    And he may well be.

    Dak had a far better rookie season winning 13 games and putting up a QBR 20 points higher.
    Pat Mahomes just tossed 50 TDs as a 2nd year guy with a QBR 27 points higher than Mayfield.
    That was impressive.

    The Browns had 4 Pro Bowlers, Baker not amongst them even though there were 2 replacement QBs selected.
    Robbieac and CATCH17 like this.
  5. CATCH17

    CATCH17 1st Round Pick

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    Baker has a chance but his rookie season is being overrated but he definitely showed some game.

    He looks very turnover prone to me but I think he'll be solid and eventually be a modern day Jeff Garcia. That's who reminds me of.

    What will make the Browns good though is there defense. Baker is in a great situation because he may end up having a defense and run game that won't ask him to be an all everything QB.

    They are also 84 million under the cap. They should probably win the AFC North next season.
  6. Mobinvans

    Mobinvans Well-Known Member

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    I would trade Dak and two 1st round picks for Murray...dude is gonna be a Star
  7. bpfred

    bpfred Active Member

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    Mayfield had a very impressive season. I watched the Browns play maybe six games or so. The Browns' offense improved dramatically when Mayfield replaced Tyrod Taylor. Mayfield was very accurate and has a strong arm. He is a much, much better thrower of the football than Dak Prescott. He was consistently fitting the ball into tight windows, and had a lot of drops by his WRs and TEs. While four positions on his OL were solid or better, his left tackle was horrible.

    Those QB ratings should really be adjusted for all the drops he suffered. Pro Football Focus tries to do just that. With their ratings, they ranked Mayfield 8th among all QBs. The other rookie QBs? Allen 27th, Darnold 29th, Jackson 34th, Rosen 37th.

    Prescott? 20th.

    Want to compare rookie seasons between Prescott and Mayfield? Prescott's OL that year was one of the best that has been assembled in the NFL in the last 10 years. When his OL slipped his second/third year, so did his performance. He is still playing behind a good OL, just not a great OL. The lines the two played behind this year were much closer in performance.

    Prescott's rookie year, the Cowboys had the best running game in the NFL--that's a pretty big tailwind for a QB. There are QBs who can be highly effective with bad OLs, and QBs who can carry a team without a good running game. Mayfield, IMO, can turn into one of those guys with more experience. Prescott, IMO, will never be one of those guys.

    Personally, after watching both Prescott and Mayfield play this year, I would trade Prescott and two first round picks for Mayfield. I don't think the Browns would even consider it.

    While I think Mayfield can become a great QB, I don't know if he will. Injuries could do him in, and he shows a tendency to self-destruct. But he's got a ton of talent, and it shows on the field--in the NFL.
    Cover 2 likes this.
  8. LACowboysFan1

    LACowboysFan1 Well-Known Member

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    Mayfield is 6-1 and 215. Murray is 5-10 and 195 (per recent measurements).

    Similar skills, but you ever watch Brees throwing the football? Has to tilt his head back to see the field, and he's 6-0, two inches taller. They can roll Murray out some of the time but pocket passers are the ones the winning NFL teams have, and Murray will have a very difficult time in the pocket....
  9. LACowboysFan1

    LACowboysFan1 Well-Known Member

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    Bold prediction.

    Can't share your opinion, though....
  10. Mobinvans

    Mobinvans Well-Known Member

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    Baker is the real deal man, hes my favorite QB behind Mahomes
  11. QuincyCarterEra

    QuincyCarterEra Well-Known Member

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    You sure do love complaining

    Too bad our QB doesnt allow us to have consecutive high picks.

    Odell is much better than Cooper, and Engram much better than Jarwin, other than that they're comparable.
  12. CATCH17

    CATCH17 1st Round Pick

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    Is he though?

    Odell is so overrated.

    He's a little girl drama queen on top of him being overrated on the field.
  13. QuincyCarterEra

    QuincyCarterEra Well-Known Member

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    He's a diva, but on the field there is no one better. He's phenomenal, despising hating everything about him other than his game.
  14. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Anytime one discusses anything on the internet it becomes black and white, Dem vs Repub, hot vs cold extremes.

    Baker was the best rookie QB this year and by a decent margin IMO.
    If you told me in 5 years he was a top 10 QB I'd suffer zero shock.
    I compare him with Tony Romo regularly.
    To me, same dude basically.

    All that said, no Baker was not a top 10 QB this year by any realistic measure and exactly zero people think PFF can player-rate worth anything.
    CLE has a Pro Bowl WR and a very good young TE that DAL would kill for as well as a top notch rookie WR that all may suffer an occasional drop but make spectacular plays as well which melded perfectly with Baker's gunslinging ways.
    They also have 1 Pro Bowl OL and an outstanding RB corps.
    CLE improved from 0 wins to 6.

    DAL in 2016 improved from 4 wins to 13.

    Anyone who would trade Dak for Baker is simply not very smart. And yes I know that's insulting to a whole bunch of folks but it is also reality.
    Dak had led his team to the playoffs 2 years out of 3 season and has never finished with fewer than 9 wins.
    He took over for a Ring of Honor QB and the team actually improved.
    His 3 year totals rival any QB in history who played their first 3 NFL seasons and he ranks top 5 in wins at QB over that 3 year period.

    Baker is a big-time playmaker but he hasn't proven to be a winning piece yet in the NFL.
    He is not efficient.
    His comp% ranked 24th.
    He ended up 17th in attempts(in 13 games) so he had plenty of passing opps.
    His INT% was 27th and he had the 5th most even though he only started 13 games.
    His QB Rating was 19th.
    He had 7 fumbles in 13 games while offering zero rush threat with 0 rushing TDs and only 131 rushing yards all year.
    His QBR was 22nd.
    And he went 6-7 as a starter.

    On the plus side he tossed a lot of TD passes with the rookie record and ranked 11th in the NFL in only 13 games.
    He passed for the 17th most yards in 13 games.
    He gave CLE hope and he never stopped being competitive.

    CLE is right to be excited about his future and he is definitely better than an also ran journeyman spare.

    But he has a lot of work to do and it will start with being more efficient.
    QuincyCarterEra likes this.
  15. CATCH17

    CATCH17 1st Round Pick

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    They lose anytime he has a good game.

    He doesn't do anything that correlates to winning.

    There was a stat where they have a losing record anytime he goes over a 100 yards or something like that.

    Dude is fools gold.
  16. QuincyCarterEra

    QuincyCarterEra Well-Known Member

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    Lol #WRLosses is now a stat that you're proposing? Ugh.

    But yeah dude has 90+ yards in 31 of his 59 games. Absolute stud on the field.
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2019
  17. CATCH17

    CATCH17 1st Round Pick

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    I’m saying when he has big games they lose.

    He does things that correlate to cool highlights but not Ws.

    He’s fools gold.

    Amari Cooper was the difference betweem winning and losing in his big games.
  18. QuincyCarterEra

    QuincyCarterEra Well-Known Member

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    You throw when you're behind resulting in receiving yards. You dont understand the causation to the effect and vice versa. Just like the uneducated think that X rushing yards from a player correlates to winning. No you rush when you're ahead in turn making that players rushing stats go up.

    Is Calvin Johnson "fools gold" too?

    OBJ makes the team better, it doesnt always correlate to wins because his team sucks.

    But pinning losses on a WR because he has good receiving games is absolutely silly. That's #WRLosses

    Ask anyone with football acumen who is better between Odell and Cooper and it'll be a no hesitation answer.

    We going to blame Barkley for the losses last season while Odell was out? #RBLosses
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2019
  19. QuincyCarterEra

    QuincyCarterEra Well-Known Member

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    And yes 44 TDs in less than 69 games absolutely correlates to wins
  20. bpfred

    bpfred Active Member

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    That whole point you are making is something that I strongly disagree with. You are comparing Prescott's rookie year with Mayfield's rookie year, and using some very slanted statistics, and outright mis-characterizations to reach incorrect conclusions.

    Dak had a good rookie year, and played well, but through the draft, and with Romo's injury, he fell ***-backwards into an incredible supporting cast. He was given lots of credit for that, and regarded as one of the upcoming superstars in the NFL. When his supporting cast slipped the next two years, his performance slipped even more. Now he is regarded as an average starting QB--nothing more.

    You are characterizing Dak as 'leading' the team to the winning records. That may have been true his rookie year, but it certainly mis-characterizes what happened this year. He was there, but he wasn't a main driver of their success. The offense averaged 21.2 pts/game--24th in the league. That was with two starting Pro Bowl offensive linemen, a Pro Bowl running back (who led the NFL in rushing), and a Pro Bowl WR. The team won 10 games this year with better defensive performance than offensive performance. The defense 'led' the team this year--not the offense, and certainly not Prescott.

    The Browns averaged 22.4 pts/game this year--14th in the NFL, with both Mayfield and Taylor at QB. They were 0-1-1 the first two games under Taylor, and were behind 14-3 at the half in the third game when Mayfield came in. They came back and won that game, and even though Mayfield didn't start, it was far more due to Mayfield's play than Taylor's. So to give Mayfield proper credit, I would characterize his record as 7-7. This was taking over a team that had only won one of their last 34 games, and had 10 consecutive losing seasons, finishing last in their division most of those.

    In Dak's one good season of play, the team improved by 9 games. You give Dak the credit in your post, but during that season, observers were split about who was more valuable--Prescott or Elliot.

    This year Mayfield had one Pro Bowl lineman, and one Pro Bowl WR. The Browns averaged more points than the Cowboys, and did so without as good of a defense, and without as good of a supporting offensive cast around Mayfield as Prescott had with the Cowboys.

    QBR is a very flawed statistic. It doesn't penalize a QB who holds the ball too long and takes a sack. That is a very negative play for the offense, but for the QBR it is better than throwing the ball away. It is an old trick for veteran QBs to run out of bounds 2 or 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage, and preserve their QBR, rather than throw the ball out of bounds. I've actually heard one QB talk about another QB doing it, so I know it happens. Does holding the ball too long and taking a sack sound familiar? It should.

    Completion % is highly dependent on the play call, and how conservative a QB is. Are they legitimately trying to get a first down, with a lower probability play, or are they throwing it 4 yards short of the sticks on 3rd down, pumping up their stats, and giving up the ball? Does that sound familiar? It should.

    PPG is a much harder statistic to manipulate. It also a much more reflective statistic of performance than the statistics you cite.

    Even more important than statistics is the fact that I watched the players play. Dak is slower getting through his reads (IMO), and less accurate than Mayfield. And less accurate on easy throws by NFL standards.

    As far as the receivers for the Browns, here is my take:

    Njoku is basically the same player as Jarwin. They both run well, and tend to be better receivers than blockers.

    Here are some comparative stats:
    Njoku 871 snaps, 56 receptions, 639 yds, 4 TDs.
    Jarwin 451 snaps, 27 receptions, 307 yds, 3 TDs.

    Njoku is not as effective as Cleveland hoped when they drafted him. Cleveland spent a 1st round pick on a very similar player that Dallas got as an undrafted free agent. Neither is all that good of a TE--despite your characterization. Dallas wants to run the ball, so they expect a TE to throw a block every now and then. That limits Jarwin's playing time, and it would do the same thing to Njoku if he were in Dallas. Nobody who really understands what Dallas is trying to do on offense, and what Njoku provides, would kill to get him. That's for fans who see a former 1st round draft pick and assume he's a star waiting to happen in Dallas.

    Callaway has talent but he drops the ball a lot, and at times can be both sloppy and lazy on his routes. Think Dez Bryant lazy after he didn't get a pass for two quarters. They want to upgrade from Callaway in Cleveland. Jarvis Landry is a good receiver, but he is not as good as Amari Cooper in my opinion.

    The Jones family needs to be exceedingly careful about extending Prescott. This has the potential to really ruin their tenure as owners, and turn the fan base against the team. That was already happening this year, when Cooper joined the team, and they turned things around.

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