Last 3 games, adjusted for opponent (offense vs defense)

[percyhoward]

In the last three games, the offense has gone from scoring 22.6% more than the opposing defense's average to 14.1% more than the opposing defense's average. The entire difference is based on missed field goals. Even if Maher just makes 2 of the 4 that he missed, then the offense is back up to scoring 24% more than those opposing defenses (Patriots, Bills, Bears) have allowed the rest of the league.

In parentheses is where the points per drive would rank for the season.

Cowboys' first 10 games
102 drives, 279 points
2.74 points per drive (2nd)
First 10 opposing defenses vs rest of NFL
1220 drives, 2587 points allowed
2.12 points allowed per drive (22nd)
+22.6%

Cowboys' last 3 games
33 drives, 47 points
1.42 points per drive (30th)
Last 3 opposing defenses vs rest of NFL
394 drives, 480 points allowed
1.22 points allowed per drive (2nd)
+14.1%

In other words, adjusted for opponent, the offense is performing at about the same rate as it was the first 10 games.

Defense is a different story. The schedule of opposing offenses hasn't gotten any harder, but the Dallas defensive performances have been much worse.

Cowboys' defense first 10 games
102 drives, 198 points allowed
1.94 points allowed per drive (16th)
First 10 opposing offenses vs rest of NFL
1228 drives, 2178 points
1.77 points per drive (23rd)
+9.6%

Cowboys' last 3 games
31 drives, 71 points allowed
2.29 points allowed per drive (27th)
Last 3 opposing offenses vs rest of NFL
388 drives, 705 points
1.82 points per drive (23rd)
+25.8%

In the first 10 games, the defense was giving up 9.6% more points than the opposing offenses' average. In the last three games, the defense has allowed opposing offenses 25.8% more points than their average. And this includes a game played in a monsoon in which the Patriots dropped 6 passes and missed two field goals from inside 50 yards.

 

[Runwildboys]

So you're saying our defense sucks.....Yeah, no offense, but I think we knew that.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

I know it’s cliche to say, but I truly believe the defense has quit.

 

[WillieBeamen]

The entire team sucks

the offense is making the numbers look better than they are because of the stat-padding.

Chicago couldve held this offense to 7 points if they wanted to

 

[punchnjudy]

In the last two games, the offense's stats have benefited from the lousy defense.

They scored 15 points total in the first 3 quarters and didn't show up until the games were out of reach.

 

[percyhoward]

the offense is making the numbers look better than they are because of the stat-padding.

In the last two games, the offense's stats have benefited from the lousy defense.

They scored 15 points total in the first 3 quarters and didn't show up until the games were out of reach.

Every offense that has faced those three defenses has had garbage time against them, and could say the same thing you did.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Every offense that has faced those three defenses has had garbage time against them, and could say the same thing you did.

Whatever


But yes lets compare this offense against the likes of Daniel Jones and the Lions 3rd string QB

 

[Fastpitch Dad]

Every offense that has faced those three defenses has had garbage time against them, and could say the same thing you did.

Huh?

If every team had garbage time against those 3 defenses wouldn't it imply those 3 teams would be undefeated?

No offense, but that statement made no sense to me.

 

[Jipper]

I know it’s cliche to say, but I truly believe the defense has quit.

that’s sure what it looked like on Thursday didn’t it?

 

[punchnjudy]

Every offense that has faced those three defenses has had garbage time against them, and could say the same thing you did.

The Mitch Trubisky led Bears have had big leads against every opponent going into the 4th quarter? The Bills too?

Arguing that the offenses have been showing up the last three games is less genuine than a three dollar bill.

 

[ChronicCowboy]

Losing Woods and LVE hasn’t helped even though neither were playing great.

Sean Lee is done. The guy is Witten of the defense.

Jaylon has been terrible all year and he better step up because we can’t cut him for 3 or 4 years.

Ditto with D-Law.

The additions on the D line have been busts with the exception of Quinn and he’s been hurt a lot.

The secondary is just terrible. Byron is a barely above average corner that can’t get picks and the rest of the guys look like borderline NFL players this season.

I’m really hoping it’s just a bad year and all these guys get serious in the offseason. We’re not going to be able to add much to the defense before next season.

 

[WillieBeamen]

The Mitch Trubisky led Bears have had big leads against every opponent going into the 4th quarter? The Bills too?

Arguing that the offenses have been showing up the last three games is less genuine than a three dollar bill.

Daniel Jones

David Blough

These are the last two QBs the Bears have faced

Comparing this offense to theirs is hilarious

 

[Vtwin]

Using these advanced stats in this way should be chapter one in the book, "How to put lipstick on your pig".

FYI, Those three teams didn't put the numbers up against the "rest of the league". They put them up against the teams they played. Two of them played more or less the same teams.

 

[DJordan23]

I know it’s cliche to say, but I truly believe the defense has quit.

I don't think that this defense has quit...they're just not a very good unit right now being led by Marinelli, Richard, and Bloom.

 

[charron]

Take out our TD's vs prevent defenses and we are not playing well on offense either. We look better than we actually were but that last TD vs chicago was a prevent gimmie.

 

[links18]

To suggest the offense's problem is just the kicker is weak. In fact, that is part of the problem--too much reliance on the kicker, whoever it is. Subtract out Maher's 55 plus FGS (which most teams won't try) and what do the offensive production stats show?

 

[DFWJC]

Dak's QB rating going steadily down every week is reflecting our offense in general.
Tougher competition brings things back to the norm.

He is now 11th in the league in QB rating, down from near the very top early in the year.
He finished 14th last year and is heading right back close to there again after all is said and done.

The OP's main point that the last three weeks reflect the increased strength of pass defense is valid.
I do think the stats are still a bit skewed due to 4th qtr prevent defenses. But the overall point still stands.

 

[baltcowboy]

If our special teams was any good we would be 9-5.

 

[percyhoward]

The Mitch Trubisky led Bears have had big leads against every opponent going into the 4th quarter? The Bills too?

Arguing that the offenses have been showing up the last three games is less genuine than a three dollar bill.

Take out our TD's vs prevent defenses and we are not playing well on offense either. We look better than we actually were but that last TD vs chicago was a prevent gimmie.

Offense down by 17+ points in 2nd half only.

Cowboys' last 3 games
8 drives, 21 points
2.63 points per drive
Last 3 opposing defenses vs rest of NFL
37 drives, 20 points allowed
0.54 points allowed per drive

 

[mattjames2010]

Watch the freakin' games, Percybot Jesus.