Learning to settle for the field goal on 3rd-and-long

[Red Dragon]

One thing about the Cowboys that makes me tremendously nervous each time is their tendency to call passing plays on 3rd-and-long around, say, the opponents' 38-yard line. And by 3rd-and-long, I mean, say, longer than ten yards to go.

This is a situation in which the Cowboys would be best off simply running the ball, gaining a few yards, and accepting the fourth down (and subsequent field goal attempt.)

Why? Five reasons.

1. If the pass falls incomplete, then you're looking at an extremely long field goal - around 56 yards - which most coaches would turn down and prefer to punt instead.
2. If your QB gets sacked, then you're even further out of field goal range.
   
3. A passing play means the ball could be intercepted - and that would be especially likely on a 3rd-and-long play when the defense fully expects a pass.
4. The likelihood of picking up a first down when you are facing a 3rd-and-12 or 3rd-and-14 is low anyway. Why take the risk of being forced out of field goal range?
   
5. A running play would likely get at least 3-5 yards, which would make for a much more manageable field goal try.

Is it defeatist to just accept the 3 points and not try to continue the drive for 7? Perhaps yes. But it's the smart thing, and 3 points is always better than nothing - which is what you would almost certainly get if the pass were incomplete, intercepted, or the QB sacked.

 

[links18]

One thing about the Cowboys that makes me tremendously nervous each time is their tendency to call passing plays on 3rd-and-long around, say, the opponents' 38-yard line. And by 3rd-and-long, I mean, say, longer than ten yards to go.

This is a situation in which the Cowboys would be best off simply running the ball, gaining a few yards, and accepting the fourth down (and subsequent field goal attempt.)

Why? Five reasons.

1. If the pass falls incomplete, then you're looking at an extremely long field goal - around 56 yards - which most coaches would turn down and prefer to punt instead.
2. If your QB gets sacked, then you're even further out of field goal range.
   
3. A passing play means the ball could be intercepted - and that would be especially likely on a 3rd-and-long play when the defense fully expects a pass.
4. The likelihood of picking up a first down when you are facing a 3rd-and-12 or 3rd-and-14 is low anyway. Why take the risk of being forced out of field goal range?
   
5. A running play would likely get at least 3-5 yards, which would make for a much more manageable field goal try.

Is it defeatist to just accept the 3 points and not try to continue the drive for 7? Perhaps yes. But it's the smart thing, and 3 points is always better than nothing - which is what you would almost certainly get if the pass were incomplete, intercepted, or the QB sacked.

This would seem to fall under the category of game situation and field position awareness. Not a strong suit of this bunch.

 

[AdamJT13]

Over the past five seasons, the only times any team has ever handed off on third down and more than 10 from the opponent's 38, it was in the fourth quarter and they were just trying to run out the clock -- two times in the last three minutes, and two times earlier in the fourth quarter with leads of 17-0 and 50-0. Other than those plays (and one kneel down), NFL offenses have called a pass play 51 times in 51 situations. Those 51 plays resulted in two interceptions, one sack, three scrambles and 26 completions for an average of 11.6 yards per catch and 6.4 yards per attempt. The four rushing plays averaged 4.75 yards per carry.

And the ONLY time we have been in that specific situation (third and more than 10 from the opponent's 38) since the 2000 season, Romo completed a 13-yard pass for a first down. That drive ended with Romo throwing the go-ahead TD pass in the third quarter, and we went on to beat the Giants on the road to stay in first place in the NFC East on our way to a 13-3 season.

 

[Nav22]

Over the past five seasons, the only times any team has ever handed off on third down and more than 10 from the opponent's 38, it was in the fourth quarter and they were just trying to run out the clock -- two times in the last three minutes, and two times earlier in the fourth quarter with leads of 17-0 and 50-0. Other than those plays (and one kneel down), NFL offenses have called a pass play 51 times in 51 situations. Those 51 plays resulted in two interceptions, one sack, three scrambles and 26 completions for an average of 11.6 yards per catch and 6.4 yards per attempt. The four rushing plays averaged 4.75 yards per carry.

And the ONLY time we have been in that specific situation (third and more than 10 from the opponent's 38) since the 2000 season, Romo completed a 13-yard pass for a first down. That drive ended with Romo throwing the go-ahead TD pass in the third quarter, and we went on to beat the Giants on the road to stay in first place in the NFC East on our way to a 13-3 season.

Thread annihilated.

 

[Staubacher]

Over the past five seasons, the only times any team has ever handed off on third down and more than 10 from the opponent's 38, it was in the fourth quarter and they were just trying to run out the clock -- two times in the last three minutes, and two times earlier in the fourth quarter with leads of 17-0 and 50-0. Other than those plays (and one kneel down), NFL offenses have called a pass play 51 times in 51 situations. Those 51 plays resulted in two interceptions, one sack, three scrambles and 26 completions for an average of 11.6 yards per catch and 6.4 yards per attempt. The four rushing plays averaged 4.75 yards per carry.

And the ONLY time we have been in that specific situation (third and more than 10 from the opponent's 38) since the 2000 season, Romo completed a 13-yard pass for a first down. That drive ended with Romo throwing the go-ahead TD pass in the third quarter, and we went on to beat the Giants on the road to stay in first place in the NFC East on our way to a 13-3 season.

Man you brought facts to this discussion! I understand what the OP was saying, but I agree you need to go for a first there.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Over the past five seasons, the only times any team has ever handed off on third down and more than 10 from the opponent's 38, it was in the fourth quarter and they were just trying to run out the clock -- two times in the last three minutes, and two times earlier in the fourth quarter with leads of 17-0 and 50-0. Other than those plays (and one kneel down), NFL offenses have called a pass play 51 times in 51 situations. Those 51 plays resulted in two interceptions, one sack, three scrambles and 26 completions for an average of 11.6 yards per catch and 6.4 yards per attempt. The four rushing plays averaged 4.75 yards per carry.

And the ONLY time we have been in that specific situation (third and more than 10 from the opponent's 38) since the 2000 season, Romo completed a 13-yard pass for a first down. That drive ended with Romo throwing the go-ahead TD pass in the third quarter, and we went on to beat the Giants on the road to stay in first place in the NFC East on our way to a 13-3 season.

Fact alert.

 

[DogFace]

Over the past five seasons, the only times any team has ever handed off on third down and more than 10 from the opponent's 38, it was in the fourth quarter and they were just trying to run out the clock -- two times in the last three minutes, and two times earlier in the fourth quarter with leads of 17-0 and 50-0. Other than those plays (and one kneel down), NFL offenses have called a pass play 51 times in 51 situations. Those 51 plays resulted in two interceptions, one sack, three scrambles and 26 completions for an average of 11.6 yards per catch and 6.4 yards per attempt. The four rushing plays averaged 4.75 yards per carry.

And the ONLY time we have been in that specific situation (third and more than 10 from the opponent's 38) since the 2000 season, Romo completed a 13-yard pass for a first down. That drive ended with Romo throwing the go-ahead TD pass in the third quarter, and we went on to beat the Giants on the road to stay in first place in the NFC East on our way to a 13-3 season.

Damn good research. You are the internets number one person.

 

[CATCH17]

Depends on the situation.

 

[links18]

Over the past five seasons, the only times any team has ever handed off on third down and more than 10 from the opponent's 38, it was in the fourth quarter and they were just trying to run out the clock -- two times in the last three minutes, and two times earlier in the fourth quarter with leads of 17-0 and 50-0. Other than those plays (and one kneel down), NFL offenses have called a pass play 51 times in 51 situations. Those 51 plays resulted in two interceptions, one sack, three scrambles and 26 completions for an average of 11.6 yards per catch and 6.4 yards per attempt. The four rushing plays averaged 4.75 yards per carry.

And the ONLY time we have been in that specific situation (third and more than 10 from the opponent's 38) since the 2000 season, Romo completed a 13-yard pass for a first down. That drive ended with Romo throwing the go-ahead TD pass in the third quarter, and we went on to beat the Giants on the road to stay in first place in the NFC East on our way to a 13-3 season.

Sources? If you don't cite your sources, you're just making it up.

 

[BEASToftheEAST]

Does settling for 3 on third down inside the red zone count? Garrett has mastered that.

 

[Red Dragon]

Over the past five seasons, the only times any team has ever handed off on third down and more than 10 from the opponent's 38, it was in the fourth quarter and they were just trying to run out the clock -- two times in the last three minutes, and two times earlier in the fourth quarter with leads of 17-0 and 50-0. Other than those plays (and one kneel down), NFL offenses have called a pass play 51 times in 51 situations. Those 51 plays resulted in two interceptions, one sack, three scrambles and 26 completions for an average of 11.6 yards per catch and 6.4 yards per attempt. The four rushing plays averaged 4.75 yards per carry.

And the ONLY time we have been in that specific situation (third and more than 10 from the opponent's 38) since the 2000 season, Romo completed a 13-yard pass for a first down. That drive ended with Romo throwing the go-ahead TD pass in the third quarter, and we went on to beat the Giants on the road to stay in first place in the NFC East on our way to a 13-3 season.

Great facts. If you don't mind my asking, though, what's the source?