Linebacker drafted before Fred Warner

[kskboys]

I had Warner picked out as a 2nd round talent. Why? "Smooth ease of movement and lateral range. Unlocks his hips and accelerates to anywhere on the field. Graceful zone dropper to handle space and undercut passing lanes. Excellent ball awareness and read/react quickness...."

Translation: Very quick, very agile, excellent instincts. I actually could not understand why he wasn't rated higher, as his scouting report screamed late 1st/2nd round talent.

Now, here's the thing. We tend to get our LB's beat up/manhandled due to not having dominant players up front. He'd still be good here, but not quite what he is w/ SF.

 

[beware_d-ware]

Draft whataboutism is an easy game to play. I think it's more interesting to look at the broader trend, and say that you don't necessarily need top draft capital to draft a top linebacker.

Out of PFF's top 10 most valuable linebackers this year, only 2 were first rounders. 6/10, the majority of them, went 3rd round or later.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-10-most-valuable-linebackers-of-the-2023-season

For comparison, 7 of PFF's 10 most valuable edge rushers went in the first round, and DLaw was picked #34.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-10-most-valuable-edge-defenders-of-the-2023-season

Basically, your stud pass rushers are mostly uber-athletic big men, and those guys tend to get drafted early. But drafting 1st round uber-athletes and college stars doesn't tend to pay the same return at LB. I don't have time to research it right now, but the recent track record of 1st round LBs is absolutely heinous. I'd be willing to bet that your odds of finding a quality LB are higher on Day 2 than on Day 1.

My theory is that LB is a much more cerebral position than its slobber-knocking reputation, and it's difficult to quantify which guys are going to "get it" by looking at a Combine workout or stat sheet. OTOH, some positions like defensive end are more quantifiable, and your future studs like Garrett and Bosa are more obvious.