Looking back over the past decade to spot trends in picking a 1st Round RB ...

[BulletBob]

1998 RBs - Round 1

#5 (Enis), #9 (Fred Taylor), #18 (Robert Edwards), #29 (Avery)

1999 RBs - Round 1

#4 (Edgerin James), #5 (Ricky Williams)

2000 RBs - Round 1

#5 (Jamal Lewis), #7 (Thomas Jones), #11 (Dayne), #19 (Alexander), #31 (Canidate)

2001 RBs - Round 1

#5 (Tomlinson), #23 (McAllister)

2002 RBs - Round 1

#16 (William Green), #18 (Duckett)

2003 RBs - Round 1

#23 (McGahee), #27 (Larry Johnson)

2004 RBs - Round 1

#24 (Jackson), #26 (Chris Perry), #30 (Kevin Jones)

2005 RBs - Round 1

#2 (Brown), #4 (Benson), #5 (Cadillac Williams)

2006 RBs - Round 1

#2 (Bush), #21 (Maroney), #27 (DeAngelo Williams), #30 (Addai)

2007 RBs - Round 1

# 7 (Peterson), #12 (Lynch)


A few points ...

• The average number of running backs taken in the fist round over the past 10 years is about 3.
• The average number of running backs taken before pick #22 is about 2.
• Only 3 out of the past 10 years has seen more than 3 RBs taken in the first round.
• It appears as though the game-breaking, league-leading, WOW RBs (Edge, J Lewis, LT, Adrian Peterson) were all taken by pick #7.

If history repeats itself, and we stand pat at picks #22 & #28 in Round 1, the WOW back will be long gone, and we will be picking from the third (or fourth) RB on the board.

My guess is that we either move up to snag one of the top two (McFadden or Mendenhall), or we look at other positions with our first-round picks. I know that sounds kinda obvious, but I was hoping to see some more comforting trends that led to better choices at #22. No such luck.

 

[Thomas82]

1998 RBs - Round 1

#5 (Enis), #9 (Fred Taylor), #18 (Robert Edwards), #29 (Avery)

1999 RBs - Round 1

#4 (Edgerin James), #5 (Ricky Williams)

2000 RBs - Round 1

#5 (Jamal Lewis), #7 (Thomas Jones), #11 (Dayne), #19 (Alexander), #31 (Canidate)

2001 RBs - Round 1

#5 (Tomlinson), #23 (McAllister)

2002 RBs - Round 1

#16 (William Green), #18 (Duckett)

2003 RBs - Round 1

#23 (McGahee), #27 (Larry Johnson)

2004 RBs - Round 1

#24 (Jackson), #26 (Chris Perry), #30 (Kevin Jones)

2005 RBs - Round 1

#2 (Brown), #4 (Benson), #5 (Cadillac Williams)

2006 RBs - Round 1

#2 (Bush), #21 (Maroney), #27 (DeAngelo Williams), #30 (Addai)

2007 RBs - Round 1

# 7 (Peterson), #12 (Lynch)


A few points ...

• The average number of running backs taken in the fist round over the past 10 years is about 3.
• The average number of running backs taken before pick #22 is about 2.
• Only 3 out of the past 10 years has seen more than 3 RBs taken in the first round.
• It appears as though the game-breaking, league-leading, WOW RBs (Edge, J Lewis, LT, Adrian Peterson) were all taken by pick #7.

If history repeats itself, and we stand pat at picks #22 & #28 in Round 1, the WOW back will be long gone, and we will be picking from the third (or fourth) RB on the board.

My guess is that we either move up to snag one of the top two (McFadden or Mendenhall), or we look at other positions with our first-round picks. I know that sounds kinda obvious, but I was hoping to see some more comforting trends that led to better choices at #22. No such luck.

I'm praying this won't happen. It would make my day if we got DMac, but I would be happy with Mendenhall too.

 

[CATCH17]

Ah, 2003. I still love you Willis.

 

[DFWJC]

1998 RBs - Round 1

#5 (Enis), #9 (Fred Taylor), #18 (Robert Edwards), #29 (Avery)

1999 RBs - Round 1

#4 (Edgerin James), #5 (Ricky Williams)

2000 RBs - Round 1

#5 (Jamal Lewis), #7 (Thomas Jones), #11 (Dayne), #19 (Alexander), #31 (Canidate)

2001 RBs - Round 1

#5 (Tomlinson), #23 (McAllister)

2002 RBs - Round 1

#16 (William Green), #18 (Duckett)

2003 RBs - Round 1

#23 (McGahee), #27 (Larry Johnson)

2004 RBs - Round 1

#24 (Jackson), #26 (Chris Perry), #30 (Kevin Jones)

2005 RBs - Round 1

#2 (Brown), #4 (Benson), #5 (Cadillac Williams)

2006 RBs - Round 1

#2 (Bush), #21 (Maroney), #27 (DeAngelo Williams), #30 (Addai)

2007 RBs - Round 1

# 7 (Peterson), #12 (Lynch)


A few points ...

• The average number of running backs taken in the fist round over the past 10 years is about 3.
• The average number of running backs taken before pick #22 is about 2.
• Only 3 out of the past 10 years has seen more than 3 RBs taken in the first round.
• It appears as though the game-breaking, league-leading, WOW RBs (Edge, J Lewis, LT, Adrian Peterson) were all taken by pick #7.

If history repeats itself, and we stand pat at picks #22 & #28 in Round 1, the WOW back will be long gone, and we will be picking from the third (or fourth) RB on the board.

My guess is that we either move up to snag one of the top two (McFadden or Mendenhall), or we look at other positions with our first-round picks. I know that sounds kinda obvious, but I was hoping to see some more comforting trends that led to better choices at #22. No such luck.

Nice post. However, this reaally shows just how inaccurate the scouting can be....by all of us. For every wow guy taken early there was also a flop taken early...so the risk reward was not all that compatible. It says that of the top 2-3 rated backs in this draft, odds are that 1 or 2 may be total busts. Which ones will it be?

There were some very good RBs taken later though. McGahee at #23 , LJ at #27, Addai at #30 to name three. Aren't they all past Pro Bowlers?

 

[tomson75]

Nice post. However, this reaally shows just how inaccurate the scouting can be....by all of us. For every wow guy taken early there was also a flop taken early...so the risk reward was not all that compatible. It says that of the top 2-3 rated backs in this draft, odds are that 1 or 2 may be total busts. Which ones will it be?

There were some very good RBs taken later though. McGahee at #23 , LJ at #27, Addai at #30 to name three. Aren't they all past Pro Bowlers?

I've got my money on the Duck.