Mailbag: trade down from 12 to add picks

[plasticman]

There is your issue...you're actually believing what Jerry says.

So, after I posted four examples of how Jerry really wanted Johnny Manziel, I should not believe those four different sources and I should believe the narrative that Jerry wasn't serious, he was just messing around.

That jokester!

It's always refreshing to see him take a couple minutes out of his very busy day of relentlessly perusing the team's improvement and instead find the time to deceive the media and fans because, that's what being funny is all about.

The only time I ever believe Jerry is when the truth of his statements are confirmed by several sources not so familiar or connected to the Jones family.

 

[blueblood70]

He's wrong. Trading down is a very good idea.

Trading down from 12 to 20 nets out more than a 4th rounder and he knows it.

There is no IF. There will be. To think the Cowboys could move down 5 spots and there not being a player with a 1st round grade is simply wrong. Teams reach every year. Players get taken early. This year won't be any different.

He seems to think that trading down is about getting a 4th round pick back. It isn't. Not at all. Trading down is just the smartest way of working the draft. The Cowboys just need more picks, period. If you aren't going to participate in FA, you have no other choice but to squeeze every single piece of asset you can from the draft.

Exactly unless somebody gets screwed I mean literally the trade value we moved down two spots to get partisans and got Osa in the 3rd round we literally picked up a 3rd rounder moving two spots down...

Now you're not going to always get that but if you're moving from 12 to 18 or 20 I imagine you can pick up a third and a 4th rounder just depending on what the trade partner wants and needs and how desperate they are..

So I'm advocating a trade down but maybe not that far maybe three to four spots at most you could pick up possibly at late 3rd rounder but how have we moved down three spots only and pick up that 4th rounder and still get our target either running back or wide receiver or whoever they have that would be a win in my opinion... Then if needed they get real creative they can use a couple of their low end ones like a 5th and a 6th to try to move up into the bottom of the fourth round if there's a target there....

 

[blueblood70]

Probably 50 people on this site know as much as the local writers about the draft

But it never hurts to hear what folks have to say.

I think many of us know that you draft by talent tiers.

Sometimes there are big gaps between the tiers, sometimes not as much.

If you ran out of players you want in the highest tier remaining, the Football Draft 101 rule is to look to trade down.
OR the highest tier has a ton of players that you like equally, you can do a small trade down and still get one while adding extra picks....like Dallas did last year

If there's a player or players in the highest tier remaining still available but you are too low to get one (the tier will run dry before your pick comes up) then you may consider a trade up.

This is true but from what I'm hearing and looking at comps the top four running backs and the top four wide receivers there aren't big gaps, however

Wide receiver is harder to get in the second round than a running back as far as quality so you would take a wide receiver over a running back in the first round if you believe what you hear... Although most are trying to tell you that there's a huge gap between AJ and Hampton and or Henderson or whoever you have targeted and I'm not sure about that... AJ got all his carries on his team and a lot of these guys split duties especially Henderson... So not only does aj have a lot of mileage on them they brag about how physically is and how many tackle he's broke sometimes that could be actual red flag when you got a guy that played on a better conference like Henderson that split carries you can pretty much expand his projections and say that he's almost as good a prospect there isn't a big gap or if they want Hampton Hampden reminds me of de DeMarco Murray..

and from the feedback i see Tet, Burden, Golden and ? The gaps even smaller between them now it's their skill set that you have to look at which one fits better for you but if Two of those guys are still there at 15 or 16 and you miss out on one of them I mean I'm pretty sure that might be worth moving down for for sure but if they really want to take a risk on a running back then you move to 20 you get another 3rd rounder and you pick up Hampton or Henderson in that area is less risk..

It does seem that 75% of people guessing what the DC FO is picking, the position seems to be wide receiver in the first round... Now it could be a smokescreen but that's the consensus. It makes sense that if one of those four guys are not going to be there at 44 and you really want one of them you better go get them in the first round then it'll feels like you're settling but you get a guy like Judkins Or similar at running back you're still not losing much.. .

 

[thunderpimp91]

So, after I posted four examples of how Jerry really wanted Johnny Manziel, I should not believe those four different sources and I should believe the narrative that Jerry wasn't serious, he was just messing around.

That jokester!

It's always refreshing to see him take a couple minutes out of his very busy day of relentlessly perusing the team's improvement and instead find the time to deceive the media and fans because, that's what being funny is all about.

The only time I ever believe Jerry is when the truth of his statements are confirmed by several sources not so familiar or connected to the Jones family.

I'm very skeptical that there was ever a legitimate Manziel discussion. The only real debate in that draft was Martin v Donald v Shazier and the decision was made easy for the Cowboys. If the Cowboys really wanted Manziel that bad they could have traded up back into the 1st once he started dropping into the 20s. It was never even a consideration because they had literally just locked up Romo to a 6 year deal.

This was an easy headline to get people talking about the Cowboys, and it worked. This is the stuff Jerry does all the time. He says wild stuff he doesnt mean to get in the news, intentionally lies, or he says things with multiple meanings to mislead people. "All in", "We couldnt afford Derrick Henry", etc.

 

[75boyz]

I am still holding out slim hope, Sanders is there at QB. Browns, Steelers, Dolphins get in a bidding war to move up to select him.
We get a 2026 1st round pick, swap 2025 1st round picks, and we get a few extra 2025 picks, maybe a 3rd and or 4th, and author later round pick. Maybe even a 2nd round, but that could not be from the Steelers, they do not have one.

The premium price for a QB can get those picks.

Do the Dolphins not want Tua anymore?

 

[morat1959]

Since premiums are always placed on QB's. If there is one of the top 3 at pick 12, some team like the Steelers may trade up.

Would they give up a 1 next year?

 

[Bagman]

I'm ok with a small trade down that nets them an extra 3rd. Just not too far down to miss out on a difference maker

 

[jazzcat22]

Do the Dolphins not want Tua anymore?

I seen some say they may want a QB. To plan for in case of another concussion. Of course all could be just a few media members saying that .

 

[jazzcat22]

Would they give up a 1 next year?

I would make that a requirement or no trade. Unless only moving down 2 or 3 spots, but get 2 more day 2 picks. And a few others.
Anymore than 4 spots. , yes require a 1st.

If for a QB,

 

[atlantacowboy]

But but but draft value chart says thus or that

It doesn't adjust for the market?

Something is smelly here

Of course it adjusts. You think next year's #1 overall has the same value as this years #1 overall, if Arch Manning comes out? You can throw the draft value chart out the window next year.

 

[Floatyworm]

We got more picks than we know what to do with???????

Yes we have 10 picks but 5 are in rounds 6 and 7. Those players only have a 5% chance of making the 53. No bueno!

Trading up is a horrible idea. The Cowboys aren't one player away. They need to trade down like they did last year. They got Guyton and Beebe with the 24th pick. that is how you work the draft.

And your happy with Guyton? I think he's going to bust... You just proved my point ...trading down your getting a less quality player.

 

[Coogiguy03]

And your happy with Guyton? I think he's going to bust... You just proved my point ...trading down your getting a less quality player.

staying put and drafting where you are can also get you a bust!

 

[DRella]

I have stated over and over, the best way for the Cowboys to attack this draft is simple. Their first pick should be a WR named either McMillian, Golden, Egbuka or Burden. If their pick at 12 arrives and there is QB on board and still 3 of the 4 WR available, you instantly trade down to highest bidder in the 18-25 range. You will still be able to get one of those WR in that range. Trading down to 20 with Denver if they really want Hampton can net you their 20, 51 and 4th round pick. This is based on the Jimmy Johnson pts system. Throw in a bidding war for that 12 pick and this or something similar to this should be easily acquired.

Now imagine what the Cowboys would be able to do with a 1st, two 2nds, 3rd and 4th. This is not to mention they have other picks to move up later in the draft if they wish to move up in the 4th round for a second pick. There is the potential for the Cowboys to have 6 picks in the top 125 of a stacked draft. They would easily be able to fill voids at WR, CB, RB, Edge, DL and LB.

My hope is for:

1st - Golden/Egbuka (WR)
2nd - Amos/Revel (CB)
2nd - Henderson/Judkins/Johnson (RB)
3rd - Swinson/Oledajo (Edge)
4th - Lott/Walker (DT)
4th - Paul/Stutsman/Bassa/Carter (LB)

 

[Shannon1]

Please don’t trade down need an impact player there no matter the position! Don’t do you any good with lower picks to make team better immediately!

 

[DRella]

Please don’t trade down need an impact player there no matter the position! Don’t do you any good with lower picks to make team better immediately!

Your telling me you would not want a combination of the below players over one player? This is by trading down in first and trading picks up for an additional 4th rounder

1st - Golden/Egbuka (WR)
2nd - Amos/Revel (CB)
2nd - Henderson/Judkins/Johnson (RB)
3rd - Swinson/Oledajo (Edge)
4th - Lott/Walker (DT)
4th - Paul/Stutsman/Bassa/Carter (LB)

Staying as you are with 12, 44 and 76. You only fix 3 positions instead of possibly 6 with each one of those players. They instantly make your team better at every position

 

[FanofJerry]

I have stated over and over, the best way for the Cowboys to attack this draft is simple. Their first pick should be a WR named either McMillian, Golden, Egbuka or Burden. If their pick at 12 arrives and there is QB on board and still 3 of the 4 WR available, you instantly trade down to highest bidder in the 18-25 range. You will still be able to get one of those WR in that range. Trading down to 20 with Denver if they really want Hampton can net you their 20, 51 and 4th round pick. This is based on the Jimmy Johnson pts system. Throw in a bidding war for that 12 pick and this or something similar to this should be easily acquired.

Now imagine what the Cowboys would be able to do with a 1st, two 2nds, 3rd and 4th. This is not to mention they have other picks to move up later in the draft if they wish to move up in the 4th round for a second pick. There is the potential for the Cowboys to have 6 picks in the top 125 of a stacked draft. They would easily be able to fill voids at WR, CB, RB, Edge, DL and LB.

My hope is for:

1st - Golden/Egbuka (WR)
2nd - Amos/Revel (CB)
2nd - Henderson/Judkins/Johnson (RB)
3rd - Swinson/Oledajo (Edge)
4th - Lott/Walker (DT)
4th - Paul/Stutsman/Bassa/Carter (LB)

How did burden do at pro day or combine?

Love that kids feel for juking.

I think it's burden with the sweet jukes.

 

[DRella]

How did burden do at pro day or combine?

Love that kids feel for juking.

I think it's burden with the sweet jukes.

At the end of the day any of the 4 WRs in this draft are better behind Lamb then Mingo and Tolbert. All 4 of these guys will be solid NFLers.

 

[jterrell]

https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/mailbag-trade-down-from-no-12-to-add-picks

I know this had been discussed. But here are a few answers from Nick Eatmam and Kurt Daniels.
They give a few different opinions and explain why about trading down, may not be the thing to do.

Nick explains, it comes down to players on your board with 1st round draft grades.

Yes, and what people are willing to pay to move up.
Trading down makes for the sexiest mocks 99 times out of 100 but that is because most mock boards are well behind the draft nerds picking players.
Mathew Golden at 25? Great trade down mock, chief, go celebrate....

It is really hard to move down out of the R1 player grades. That's how you end up with Mazi or Guyton. Players with NFL bodies and potential but not guys ready to be starters today.

 

[jterrell]

Note:: Matt Miller, ESPN
The 2025 class ends up with the lowest number of true first-round grades I've ever awarded: 13

 

[jterrell]

At the end of the day any of the 4 WRs in this draft are better behind Lamb then Mingo and Tolbert. All 4 of these guys will be solid NFLers.

That is very true but that doesn't mean that should be the criterion to take a guy in round 1.
Can the guy replace CeeDee in 3 years? That should be the criteria.

Dallas needs Pro Bowl caliber talent, not guys that can play better than people who likely shouldn't make the roster in 14 months.