Mark My Words (MMW): Draft Edition

[CalPolyTechnique]

Stealing this from Reddit. Make your draft declaration you're irrationally confident about happening (or not happening). Here are a few of mine:

Mark my words....

1. Deone Walker will not get picked until Day 3. This is a bad-body (literal gut)/long torso/short-legged prospect that plays without any semblance of technique and without a clear position.

2. The best RB to come out of this draft will not be named Ashton Jeanty. Don't get me wrong, I think Jeanty will be good, but it's hard to live up to the hype. There's also a number of very good RBs this draft. One name I can't escape is TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson is pro-ready and a complete back that excels at pass-blocking. If he gets drafted in the right offense and a good number of touches, I expect a lot of big plays from him as a rookie.

3. There's not a true "franchise" difference-making QB in this draft. Sure, Sanders and Ward will likely get drafted in R1, but I don't foresee them as franchise QBs that will be with the same team that drafts them 10 years from now.

4. Tyler Warren is the closest thing we've seen to Rob Gronkowski. Warren is built different and fun to watch. His ball skills are outstanding for a TE and I fully expect him to be a dominant red-zone threat.

 

[Bigdog]

Agree with you on #2 and #3 especially with Henderson. I think there is a lot of good rbs in this draft

 

[cnuball21]

Stealing this from Reddit. Make your draft declaration you're irrationally confident about happening (or not happening). Here are a few of mine:

Mark my words....

1. Deone Walker will not get picked until Day 3. This is a bad-body (literal gut)/long torso/short-legged prospect that plays without any semblance of technique and without a clear position.

2. The best RB to come out of this draft will not be named Ashton Jeanty. Don't get me wrong, I think Jeanty will be good, but it's hard to live up to the hype. There's also a number of very good RBs this draft. One name I can't escape is TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson is pro-ready and a complete back that excels at pass-blocking. If he gets drafted in the right offense and a good number of touches, I expect a lot of big plays from him as a rookie.

3. There's not a true "franchise" difference-making QB in this draft. Sure, Sanders and Ward will likely get drafted in R1, but I don't foresee them as franchise QBs that will be with the same team that drafts them 10 years from now.

4. Tyler Warren is the closest thing we've seen to Rob Gronkowski. Warren is built different and fun to watch. His ball skills are outstanding for a TE and I fully expect him to be a dominant red-zone threat.

Good post, but I think Jeanty is about as can’t miss as it gets at the RB position. As long he doesn’t go to a team that doesn’t have a terrible OL I’d be shocked if he doesn’t run for 1200ish yards as a rookie.

My adds:

- Pearce could be a better Edge in the pros than Carter

- Walker is overrated

- Josh Simmons will the best OT from this class

- Jahdae Barron MIGHT be Brian Branch

- Harmon will have a similar career to Graham

- Scourton will be a bust

- Shemar Stewart will be a much better pro than college player

 

[My3Sons]

Disagree on

(1)Walker. Lots of freak athlete "fat guys" in the league that are very good players. He will be 2nd round pick that will need to play for that second contract to make his fat payday. He will be very good.

(2) Jeanty/ Henderson are both good players. I think Jeanty gets the nod from me. He was unreal in college this year and carried that team. RBs from Bama and tOSU are harder project as their OL is always better than the front 7 they face every week.

I agree on 3 & 4

 

[FanofJerry]

I get that there is a lot of hype...but given that Jeanty produced the hype...

Why would every scout interview defensive players that Jeanty played against and ask them how good his tackle shedding is?

If Jeanty does have that as an elite skill, and defensive players he went against claim he is somehow slithery....that seems like a killer skill that most backs dont have. And I would probably go with Jeanty based on that alone.

Unless he sucks at blocking or the NFL game is way different than college...but you could say that about the other back you all are talking about.

Every post seems to talk about Jeanty's tackle shedding...and that seems very intriguing.

But...if this other kid is more explosive and a killer blocker....maybe his explosiveness and pass blocking make him safer.

I have no player to add to the list. I watched a lot of Colorado ball and find it interesting that Shedeur hardly turned ball over, and have seen him stay in the pocket and take big hits right after releasing some good throws. But, he took incredibly bad sacks, which I dont think he does at NFL level, I think he was trying to will his college team. Really intrigued to see if he can do anything. He doesnt seem to have good pocket awareness which could be an issue.

 

[rambo2]

Stealing this from Reddit. Make your draft declaration you're irrationally confident about happening (or not happening). Here are a few of mine:

Mark my words....

1. Deone Walker will not get picked until Day 3. This is a bad-body (literal gut)/long torso/short-legged prospect that plays without any semblance of technique and without a clear position.

2. The best RB to come out of this draft will not be named Ashton Jeanty. Don't get me wrong, I think Jeanty will be good, but it's hard to live up to the hype. There's also a number of very good RBs this draft. One name I can't escape is TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson is pro-ready and a complete back that excels at pass-blocking. If he gets drafted in the right offense and a good number of touches, I expect a lot of big plays from him as a rookie.

3. There's not a true "franchise" difference-making QB in this draft. Sure, Sanders and Ward will likely get drafted in R1, but I don't foresee them as franchise QBs that will be with the same team that drafts them 10 years from now.

4. Tyler Warren is the closest thing we've seen to Rob Gronkowski. Warren is built different and fun to watch. His ball skills are outstanding for a TE and I fully expect him to be a dominant red-zone threat.

The top 4 running backs are good. It's up to the football gods if they can stay healthy.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

I get that there is a lot of hype...but given that Jeanty produced the hype...

Why would every scout interview defensive players that Jeanty played against and ask them how good his tackle shedding is?

If Jeanty does have that as an elite skill, and defensive players he went against claim he is somehow slithery....that seems like a killer skill that most backs dont have. And I would probably go with Jeanty based on that alone.

Unless he sucks at blocking or the NFL game is way different than college...but you could say that about the other back you all are talking about.

Every post seems to talk about Jeanty's tackle shedding...and that seems very intriguing.

But...if this other kid is more explosive and a killer blocker....maybe his explosiveness and pass blocking make him safer.

I have no player to add to the list. I watched a lot of Colorado ball and find it interesting that Shedeur hardly turned ball over, and have seen him stay in the pocket and take big hits right after releasing some good throws. But, he took incredibly bad sacks, which I dont think he does at NFL level, I think he was trying to will his college team. Really intrigued to see if he can do anything. He doesnt seem to have good pocket awareness which could be an issue.

Jeanty’s contact balance is elite. I don’t doubt he’ll be good and has the ability to be great. I just don’t know if he can live up to the hype.

 

[Cowboyny]

I don’t understand so much love for Henderson, his vision is questionable at best and has durability concerns

Tyler Warren is another player who is getting overrated, Bowers was the far better prospect and it isn’t close.

 

[TheDank]

1. Walter Nolen becomes the best DT out of this class and ends up going top 15. I have Graham rated higher as a prospect right now but Nolen has the highest ceiling for me due to his athleticism.

2. James Pearce is seen as largely a bust if drafted high and can only serve as a rotational pass rusher due to his liability as a run defender.

3. Mike Green goes lower than Jalon Walker but is a better edge/hybrid LB. I have him rated tenatively right behind Carter although he needs to show out at the Sr Bowl due to the level of competition he's faced at Marshal. (There's some off field considerations for Green here though).

 

[cnuball21]

I don’t understand so much love for Henderson, his vision is questionable at best and has durability concerns

Tyler Warren is another player who is getting overrated, Bowers was the far better prospect and it isn’t close.

Henderson is one of the few legit home run hitters in the class. His vision may not be top notch but dude is a stud…also a great pass catcher and one of the best blockers in the class.

 

[cnuball21]

1. Walter Nolen becomes the best DT out of this class and ends up going top 15. I have Graham rated higher as a prospect right now but Nolen has the highest ceiling for me due to his athleticism.

2. James Pearce is seen as largely a bust if drafted high and can only serve as a rotational pass rusher due to his liability as a run defender.

3. Mike Green goes lower than Jalon Walker but is a better edge/hybrid LB. I have him rated tenatively right behind Carter although he needs to show out at the Sr Bowl due to the level of competition he's faced at Marshal. (There's some off field considerations for Green here though).

Pearce had an 80+ run grade this year. His run defense is incredibly underrated and he has the length to continue to add size unlike some other rushers in the class.

 

[TheDank]

Pearce had an 80+ run grade this year. His run defense is incredibly underrated and he has the length to continue to add size unlike some other rushers in the class.

Guys like Beasley and Ngonkue could probably defend the run decent in college too. Effort and athleticism get the job done at that level. I don't see the ability for him to set the edge in the NFL if called for. He has the frame, but would have to add a lot of bulk.

 

[Cowboyny]

Henderson is one of the few legit home run hitters in the class. His vision may not be top notch but dude is a stud…also a great pass catcher and one of the best blockers in the class.

I worry most about his lack of durability and would not draft him over any of the top 3, I have him on the next tier. Yes, had home run ability, but lack of vision is a huge concern for many back as they aren’t going to have gaping holes to run through on the next level

 

[cnuball21]

Guys like Beasley and Ngonkue could probably defend the run decent in college too. Effort and athleticism get the job done at that level. I don't see the ability for him to set the edge in the NFL if called for. He has the frame, but would have to add a lot of bulk.

Way different prospects…neither had the length and frame to get bigger and stronger.

Pearce is Randy Gregory as a prospect without the headaches.Gregory easily got up to 260+.

 

[cnuball21]

I worry most about his lack of durability and would not draft him over any of the top 3, I have him on the next tier. Yes, had home run ability, but lack of vision is a huge concern for many back as they aren’t going to have gaping holes to run through on the next level

As I’m reading this he just ripped off a 20 yard run lol.

I hear you - he’s RB 4 for me but he’s arguably the biggest big play back in the draft which I think we desperately need. Only if injuries are ok.

 

[Cowboyny]

As I’m reading this he just ripped off a 20 yard run lol.

I hear you - he’s RB 4 for me but he’s arguably the biggest big play back in the draft which I think we desperately need. Only if injuries are ok.

He does have that wow factor, just have my concerns about him on the next level

 

[FanofJerry]

Is Jerimiah(sp) Smith not looking like man amongst boys as Freshman.

What are his projections? TO?

Looks like he is either TO, if he gets leaner, or he gets fat with that body mass. Obviously he can play a few years before body mass catches up....but damn...he looks bigger, stronger than everyone as a freshman.

These guys are weird to me...than can go either way, awesome or bust, or move positions.

Kid seems too big to be a freshman.

 

[reddyuta]

Henderson is really good but he cant be 20 carry guy with his injury history.Over 755 carries in college for Jeanty is almost double than most college RBs,that will drop him in the draft.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Henderson is really good but he cant be 20 carry guy with his injury history.Over 755 carries in college for Jeanty is almost double than most college RBs,that will drop him in the draft.

That’s not remotely close to what guys like Ricky Williams and Jonathan Taylor carried.

Jeanty’s 750 career carries places him 179th all-time.

 

[reddyuta]

That’s not remotely close to what guys like Ricky Williams and Jonathan Taylor carried.

Jeanty’s 750 career carries places him 179th all-time.

I am talking present day,those carries take a toll and it did for Jeanty who carried an injury and was hampered by it.