Mark My Words (MMW): Draft Edition

[darthseinfeld]

Stealing this from Reddit. Make your draft declaration you're irrationally confident about happening (or not happening). Here are a few of mine:

Mark my words....

1. Deone Walker will not get picked until Day 3. This is a bad-body (literal gut)/long torso/short-legged prospect that plays without any semblance of technique and without a clear position.

2. The best RB to come out of this draft will not be named Ashton Jeanty. Don't get me wrong, I think Jeanty will be good, but it's hard to live up to the hype. There's also a number of very good RBs this draft. One name I can't escape is TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson is pro-ready and a complete back that excels at pass-blocking. If he gets drafted in the right offense and a good number of touches, I expect a lot of big plays from him as a rookie.

3. There's not a true "franchise" difference-making QB in this draft. Sure, Sanders and Ward will likely get drafted in R1, but I don't foresee them as franchise QBs that will be with the same team that drafts them 10 years from now.

4. Tyler Warren is the closest thing we've seen to Rob Gronkowski. Warren is built different and fun to watch. His ball skills are outstanding for a TE and I fully expect him to be a dominant red-zone threat.

I see Sanders having a Matt Shaub kind of career

 

[Creeper]

I have to agree with you on Jeanty. I don't know why but despite his production in college I have some serious doubts about him as a pro. Sometimes the best RBs in college don't do that well in the pros. Is Jeanty one of them?

I really like Henderson. He is quick, tough and also has excellent vision/instincts. I would love him in Dallas.

I usually put production above all other metrics, but there is something about the way he runs that makes me wonder about him in the pros. Then again, any back with great visions has an excellent chance of success in the NFL, and Jeanty has great vision.

I can see Walker being a little like Jordan Davis. He's not going to shine but he could be solid in the middle of a defensive line. If he falls to day three I would definitely take the risk. I agree about the QBs. I am not high on any of them. No one stands out to me.

I also agree to an extent on Tyler Warren. Whoever drafts him is getting a playmaker. But as Las Vegas proved, even a record setting TE has a limited ability to improve a team with an bad QB or roster.

 

[FanofJerry]

I see Sanders having a Matt Shaub kind of career

Are you willing to elaborate?

Im guilty...Im curious how this Sanders thing goes.

All these posts use wordings like "how do you project this player"...I dont know where to look for scouting reports on college players...but what are his big negatives that are turning scouts off?

My brain is enamored with how little he turned the ball over...I think its a big trait to have at QB. Yet this board hates Dak.

Arm strength? Are his decisions that bad in game?

He is not fast, has bad pocket awareness(maybe that is good because he has trained his brain to keep eyes downfield), takes huge loss yards on sacks, doesnt throw ball out of bounds when he should. Are you able to add a more refined report on him?

I can see someone talking about footwork mechanics, or that he has a slow release, or a weak arm....I still find a lot of that stuff to be hoopla. Maybe someone can tell me that the NFL is so timing based, that Sanders doesnt possess the mechanics OC's are looking for. But I see Mahomes scrambling in the Playoffs when teams are good at defense. That timing mechanics stuff goes out the window a little bit, imo.

He gets the ball out and downfield without turning it over. He is trained to be pass first, so the running thing is not an excuse I will allow. Ive seen him stand in messy pockets and compete passes.

Everyone hates the casual eye guy. Someone tell me where he is going to fail in the NFL.

Edit: This board has turned me on to the whole "arm strength" angle. I do admit that is a nice trait. But im not going arm strength over a football player. Maybe im naïve.

Another edit: I guess Im different and dont want to read/hear things that suggest "I just want a 6'5 Phillip Rivers with a cannon". I feel like I am being played reading stuff that suggests that.

 

[DasTex]

Walker was seen as a top 10 pick after last season - sure he wasn't as dominate this year - but I guarantee he'll be drafted before day 3

 

[beware_d-ware]

I could see Cam Ward being a very good player. He's got the arm and he's not afraid to use it. Definitely a boom or bust guy, but I think he's got a chance to be a franchise QB. Shedeur, OTOH, just doesn't have that potential.

 

[FanofJerry]

I could see Cam Ward being a very good player. He's got the arm and he's not afraid to use it. Definitely a boom or bust guy, but I think he's got a chance to be a franchise QB. Shedeur, OTOH, just doesn't have that potential.

Can you define how many INT's you will allow for an arm guy that isnt afraid to use it?

You are side-stepping important information.

Currently, with my casual eye, Burrow and Rodgers have the best accuracy, if you are asking a QB to place balls in strict openings...how many INT's do you allow before you change the passing routes up or change the offense to less risk?

You cant just leave out info unless your are pilfering. Wanting a gun slinger, then blaming the QB is lame around here.

Is a gunslinger QB that has enormous INT's but wins because of the defense...the QB you would want? Or do you blame it on deflections or good defense?

At some point turnovers matter. What good is a gunslinger if you have to change the offense eventually to one that an above average arm guy could make?

But...I get it...there are probably a few more good plays then bad ones assuming the guy is fairly accurate.

 

[beware_d-ware]

Can you define how many INT's you will allow for an arm guy that isnt afraid to use it?

You are side-stepping important information.

Currently, with my casual eye, Burrow and Rodgers have the best accuracy, if you are asking a QB to place balls in strict openings...how many INT's do you allow before you change the passing routes up or change the offense to less risk?

You cant just leave out info unless your are pilfering. Wanting a gun slinger, then blaming the QB is lame around here.

Is a gunslinger QB that has enormous INT's but wins because of the defense...the QB you would want? Or do you blame it on deflections or good defense?

At some point turnovers matter. What good is a gunslinger if you have to change the offense eventually to one that an above average arm guy could make?

But...I get it...there are probably a few more good plays then bad ones assuming the guy is fairly accurate.

The way the NFL is trending, is you just draft supremely talented QBs and give them a chance to figure it out.

I've said it a bunch of times, but even if a rookie QB ends up being no better than Kirk Cousins or Daniel Jones, that's worth $40M/yr. By that measure, those guys are more valuable players than Myles Garrett and Justin Jefferson. And since rookie QBs come cost-controlled for 4 years, hitting on one immediately opens your window to build a team and contend in a way that no other draft pick does. If you think a guy's got starter talent, you need to take a shot on him.

Ward and Milroe are the only two guys I see with starter talent in this class, and Milroe is like Trey Lance level unready for the NFL. He hardly looks ready to start at Bama. So I am rolling with Ward.

 

[Cowboyny]

In my opinion, Walker has Chris Jones potential if he has the desire to become great. Has to trim down and develop his technique, but you cannot teach that size and athletic ability. Really am interested to see how he tests out.

 

[Runwildboys]

Stealing this from Reddit. Make your draft declaration you're irrationally confident about happening (or not happening). Here are a few of mine:

Mark my words....

1. Deone Walker will not get picked until Day 3. This is a bad-body (literal gut)/long torso/short-legged prospect that plays without any semblance of technique and without a clear position.

2. The best RB to come out of this draft will not be named Ashton Jeanty. Don't get me wrong, I think Jeanty will be good, but it's hard to live up to the hype. There's also a number of very good RBs this draft. One name I can't escape is TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson is pro-ready and a complete back that excels at pass-blocking. If he gets drafted in the right offense and a good number of touches, I expect a lot of big plays from him as a rookie.

3. There's not a true "franchise" difference-making QB in this draft. Sure, Sanders and Ward will likely get drafted in R1, but I don't foresee them as franchise QBs that will be with the same team that drafts them 10 years from now.

4. Tyler Warren is the closest thing we've seen to Rob Gronkowski. Warren is built different and fun to watch. His ball skills are outstanding for a TE and I fully expect him to be a dominant red-zone threat.

Walker looks like jelly is about to burst out of his navel.

 

[Proof]

mark my words, I won't get much right about this draft, but I will likely claim I did down the line lol.

My only (no reasoning) gut feeling is that T Mac won't justify his draft position or become a difference maker.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

mark my words, I won't get much right about this draft, but I will likely claim I did down the line lol.

My only (no reasoning) gut feeling is that T Mac won't justify his draft position or become a difference maker.

Gut feelings are welcome.

 

[RS12]

Dart and Milroe go much earlier than projected.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Dart and Milroe go much earlier than projected.

I would be shocked if Miltoe goes in the first two rounds.

 

[FanofJerry]

sounds like Jeanty isnt twitchy enough for some.

i hate using that played out word...but it works...

sounds like a lot of people are shunning production numbers with this guy and going with their eye over stats....what a u-turn for this board.

it is hard not to love super skittish backs that are strong. they pop on the screen more. but again...everyone hates eye test around here. yawn

 

[beware_d-ware]

sounds like Jeanty isnt twitchy enough for some.

i hate using that played out word...but it works...

sounds like a lot of people are shunning production numbers with this guy and going with their eye over stats....what a u-turn for this board.

it is hard not to love super skittish backs that are strong. they pop on the screen more. but again...everyone hates eye test around here. yawn

I doubt there's anyone here that doesn't have Jeanty as their RB1. He's clearly a stud. The hemming and hawing comes when he's talked about as the #12 pick, because expectations for an RB taken that high get raised to the level of like Saquon or rookie Zeke.

 

[FanofJerry]

I doubt there's anyone here that doesn't have Jeanty as their RB1. He's clearly a stud. The hemming and hawing comes when he's talked about as the #12 pick, because expectations for an RB taken that high get raised to the level of like Saquon or rookie Zeke.

youre mincing words now it seems...im not going back to read exactly what you wrote...

seems like i dont remember the excuse of "taking him that high" from you...it was "will he be a bust"...as in be a good player.

are you talking draft bust based on where he was drafted, or were you asking if you thought he would be as good as the hype? its too different things. make a distinction. are you worried about him not living up to the hype or or you looking at him from a draft numbers perspective?

 

[beware_d-ware]

youre mincing words now it seems...im not going back to read exactly what you wrote...

seems like i dont remember the excuse of "taking him that high" from you...it was "will he be a bust"...as in be a good player.

are you talking draft bust based on where he was drafted, or were you asking if you thought he would be as good as the hype? its too different things. make a distinction. are you worried about him not living up to the hype or or you looking at him from a draft numbers perspective?

Got ya. I went back to the OP, and saw that Cal Poly does in fact think there's going to be a better back than Jeanty in this class. But that is betting Jeanty vs the field.

 

[Zekeats]

Henderson wasn't even the best running back on his team.

 

[RS12]

Based on the underwhelming coaching hire, I will be shocked if Jeanty isnt the pick if he is available. I dont necessarily agree with it though I am a big fan of the player. This is strictly about selling hope to a fan base that doesnt have much right now. That is my opinion and I am sticking with it. It will certainly make sense to Jerry. He loves marketing stars even if he hasnt played a down yet.