YosemiteSam
Unfriendly and Aloof!
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I was thinking about when people say, a couple of early losses is not a big deal. This is something that just doesn't sit so well with me because in any season, you generally have a limited amount of games you can lose before you will miss the playoffs. Therefore every loss counts no matter when that loss occurs and to say otherwise is a bunch of hooey!
So, for every loss you have, it raises the importance of winning all unplayed games. I think I have the makings of general guideline to give people a generic idea of a teams margin for error to making the playoffs based on how many losses they have.
First thing I want to do is obviously point out that all situations aren't the same, so there is no perfect formula. The only thing we can do is get a guesstimation based on sound numbers.
Secondly, if you a anal-retentive statistical stickler; this isn't for you. If you want to complain how mathematically some things aren't accounted for, then just move along. This isn't about creating perfect numbers, it's about comprehending a teams situation. This isn't a percentage. (it doesn't add up that way) It's more of a margin for error.
Alright, the formula starts with a constant. That constant I've decided will be 10 and 6. 10 and 6 is what I consider the general season record required to be a playoff team. Yes, sometimes a better is required and sometimes even more losses will get you in, but we can't consider all possibilities when you're dealing with a constant. (obviously, you can adjust the constant to how you see fit)
If a 10 and 6 record is required; how does each loss affect your margin for error to make the playoffs? Well, that depends on how many games you have left to play. The more games you have left, the higher impact each loss puts on the rest of your games therefore lowering your margin for error.
We will start at the beginning of the season. You have 16 games remaining to be played and 6 acceptable losses to give.
The equation is Margin for Error = Total Acceptable Losses Remaining / Games Remaining.
1.000 means you've locked in a playoff spot. (ie, you can error (lose) the rest of your games)
So, 6 (Acceptable Losses remaining) / 6 (games remaining) = 1.000
Obviously, if you win more than 10 games, that Margin for error will go well over 1.000. I believe anything below .300 creates an extremely poor outlook for a team making the playoffs. Of course that can change if the team starts wining.
At the start of the season, 6 losses / 16 games remaining = .375 margin for error.
The Cowboys started 0-2. 4 / 14 = .285. That puts the Cowboys on the wrong side of the river. With the Win over the Texans, it barely righted the ship returning to a .307. If the Cowboys lose to the Titans, it will put them in a very bad spot at .250. Winning would put them at .333.
If the Cowboys go on a 3 game winning streak starting this weekend? .400. Losing streak? .100. Basically, if the Cowboys had 5 losses with 10 games to go. You should probably just start looking at next season.
Here is a a few different scenarios.
Once you've lost 6 games, no matter how many are left, you will always have a .000 margin for error.
Now, people say that early losses aren't that important and this in a sense actually suggests the same thing because early losses move the margin for error only slightly early on while losses later in the season move it in much larger chunks. I think what is missed here though is the fact that the effect of early losses start having a compounding effect on the margin for error as the season goes on. In that case, I think people only perceive that early losses aren't that big of a deal because they are seeing it from a distance. IMO, every loss counts and you will feel the effect of each loss as you move closer and closer to seasons end. In the end, a loss is a loss and it has the exact same effect no matter if it comes early or late. The only difference is the effect of an early loss is stretched out over the course of a season rather than applied in bulk all at once.
Anyway, just something I thought about on the train ride to work. I think it looks pretty good, but always looking to improve it. You see anything that would make this better?
So, for every loss you have, it raises the importance of winning all unplayed games. I think I have the makings of general guideline to give people a generic idea of a teams margin for error to making the playoffs based on how many losses they have.
First thing I want to do is obviously point out that all situations aren't the same, so there is no perfect formula. The only thing we can do is get a guesstimation based on sound numbers.
Secondly, if you a anal-retentive statistical stickler; this isn't for you. If you want to complain how mathematically some things aren't accounted for, then just move along. This isn't about creating perfect numbers, it's about comprehending a teams situation. This isn't a percentage. (it doesn't add up that way) It's more of a margin for error.
Alright, the formula starts with a constant. That constant I've decided will be 10 and 6. 10 and 6 is what I consider the general season record required to be a playoff team. Yes, sometimes a better is required and sometimes even more losses will get you in, but we can't consider all possibilities when you're dealing with a constant. (obviously, you can adjust the constant to how you see fit)
If a 10 and 6 record is required; how does each loss affect your margin for error to make the playoffs? Well, that depends on how many games you have left to play. The more games you have left, the higher impact each loss puts on the rest of your games therefore lowering your margin for error.
We will start at the beginning of the season. You have 16 games remaining to be played and 6 acceptable losses to give.
The equation is Margin for Error = Total Acceptable Losses Remaining / Games Remaining.
1.000 means you've locked in a playoff spot. (ie, you can error (lose) the rest of your games)
So, 6 (Acceptable Losses remaining) / 6 (games remaining) = 1.000
Obviously, if you win more than 10 games, that Margin for error will go well over 1.000. I believe anything below .300 creates an extremely poor outlook for a team making the playoffs. Of course that can change if the team starts wining.
At the start of the season, 6 losses / 16 games remaining = .375 margin for error.
The Cowboys started 0-2. 4 / 14 = .285. That puts the Cowboys on the wrong side of the river. With the Win over the Texans, it barely righted the ship returning to a .307. If the Cowboys lose to the Titans, it will put them in a very bad spot at .250. Winning would put them at .333.
If the Cowboys go on a 3 game winning streak starting this weekend? .400. Losing streak? .100. Basically, if the Cowboys had 5 losses with 10 games to go. You should probably just start looking at next season.
Here is a a few different scenarios.
- 8-0 with 8 games left: .750
- 6-2 with 8 games left: .500
- 4-4 with 8 games left: .250
- 9-3 with 4 games left: .750
- 9-5 with 2 games left: .500
- 5-5 with 6 games left: .166
Once you've lost 6 games, no matter how many are left, you will always have a .000 margin for error.
Now, people say that early losses aren't that important and this in a sense actually suggests the same thing because early losses move the margin for error only slightly early on while losses later in the season move it in much larger chunks. I think what is missed here though is the fact that the effect of early losses start having a compounding effect on the margin for error as the season goes on. In that case, I think people only perceive that early losses aren't that big of a deal because they are seeing it from a distance. IMO, every loss counts and you will feel the effect of each loss as you move closer and closer to seasons end. In the end, a loss is a loss and it has the exact same effect no matter if it comes early or late. The only difference is the effect of an early loss is stretched out over the course of a season rather than applied in bulk all at once.
Anyway, just something I thought about on the train ride to work. I think it looks pretty good, but always looking to improve it. You see anything that would make this better?
