locked&loaded
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Eleven of the top 30 corners, including seven of the top 10, ran 40 yards in less than 4.4 seconds either at the combine or pro days. Last year, a mere two of the top 30 broke 4.4.
Not one of the evaluators interviewed for this series made a big deal about the speed factor. NFL people lock in on business at hand. All those 4.3s, even 4.2s written on the cards of the cornerbacks on their draft-room wall tend to blend in after a while as deliberations go on and on.
...determining a 40 time for each player.
First, I disregard the electronic times at the combine. Electronic timing isn’t available at most pro days, and trying to compare electronic times with hand-held times is inappropriate.
At the combine, two designated scouts with stopwatches are seated at the finish line of the 40, and immediately their times are recorded by the combine staff. Working from those numbers, I average the times of a player’s first 40, the average of his second 40 (most run two) and then average the two averages for the number that I assign for posterity. If a player runs a 40 or two at a pro day, I’ll average those as best I can with his averages at the combine.
...I’ve used this system for about 20 years. Before that, I went with the fastest of the two hand-held times either at the combine or pro day.
Good or bad, my formula for 40 times has been consistent for a long time.
...It wasn’t just speed this year, either. Seven of the top 30 went 11-0 or more in the broad jump whereas five went 40 inches or higher in the vertical jump. Both drills are reflections of speed as well as explosiveness.
Last spring, the only top-30 corners with sub-4.4 speed were UTSA’s Tariq Woolen (4.26) and Baylor’s Kalon Barnes (4.27). There were eight top-30 corners under 4.4 in. 2021, two in 2020, four in 2019 and four in 2018.
...“In the NFL of today, if you’re a corner and you’re not 4.45 on down, you can’t run,” one personnel man said. “The success rate of 4.55 corners is minimal.”
My poll of 16 evaluators asked them to rank the corners 1-2-3-4-5, with a first-place vote worth 5 points, a second-place worth 4 points and so on. It’s worth noting that 164 of the 240 possible points, or 68.3%, went to corners that ran under 4.4.
Christian Gonzalez led with nine firsts and 70 points. Following, in order, were Devon Witherspoon (67, six), Joey Porter (30, one), Deonte Banks (24 ½), Emmanuel Forbes (20), DJ Turner (nine), Cam Smith (6 ½), Garrett Williams (four), Julius Brents (three), Kelee Ringo (three), Clark Phillips (two) and Darius Rush (one).
As much as scouts admire the group as a whole, they were hesitant to label any one player as elite. The current young players most commonly referred to as falling in that category were Sauce Gardner (6-2 ½, 193, 4.46) and Patrick Surtain II (6-2, 208, 4.42).
Of the corners as a whole, another executive said, “There are probably 12 to 15 guys that can come in and at least be a No. 3 corner in the first year. Eight or so of those could be good No. 2’s. Probably be four to six in the first round.”
Meanwhile, it appears this will be the third draft in the past four years in which no safety has been taken in Round 1.
“This is unbelievable how bad this is,” one scout said. “(Brian) Branch, (Antonio) Johnson and then it’s kind of a free-for-all. It falls quick.”
Branch dominated the 16-scout poll with 13 firsts and 74 points, yet he is considered an underdog for the first round.
The rest of the vote was Johnson (39, one), Quan Martin (28), Sydney Brown (25, one), Jordan Battle (20, one), Jammie Robinson (17), Ji'ayir Brown (12), Jay Ward (seven), JL Skinner (five), Ronnie Hickman (four), Gervarrius Owens (four), Christopher Smith (three) and DeMarcco Hellams (two).
Not one of the evaluators interviewed for this series made a big deal about the speed factor. NFL people lock in on business at hand. All those 4.3s, even 4.2s written on the cards of the cornerbacks on their draft-room wall tend to blend in after a while as deliberations go on and on.
...determining a 40 time for each player.
First, I disregard the electronic times at the combine. Electronic timing isn’t available at most pro days, and trying to compare electronic times with hand-held times is inappropriate.
At the combine, two designated scouts with stopwatches are seated at the finish line of the 40, and immediately their times are recorded by the combine staff. Working from those numbers, I average the times of a player’s first 40, the average of his second 40 (most run two) and then average the two averages for the number that I assign for posterity. If a player runs a 40 or two at a pro day, I’ll average those as best I can with his averages at the combine.
...I’ve used this system for about 20 years. Before that, I went with the fastest of the two hand-held times either at the combine or pro day.
Good or bad, my formula for 40 times has been consistent for a long time.
...It wasn’t just speed this year, either. Seven of the top 30 went 11-0 or more in the broad jump whereas five went 40 inches or higher in the vertical jump. Both drills are reflections of speed as well as explosiveness.
Last spring, the only top-30 corners with sub-4.4 speed were UTSA’s Tariq Woolen (4.26) and Baylor’s Kalon Barnes (4.27). There were eight top-30 corners under 4.4 in. 2021, two in 2020, four in 2019 and four in 2018.
...“In the NFL of today, if you’re a corner and you’re not 4.45 on down, you can’t run,” one personnel man said. “The success rate of 4.55 corners is minimal.”
My poll of 16 evaluators asked them to rank the corners 1-2-3-4-5, with a first-place vote worth 5 points, a second-place worth 4 points and so on. It’s worth noting that 164 of the 240 possible points, or 68.3%, went to corners that ran under 4.4.
Christian Gonzalez led with nine firsts and 70 points. Following, in order, were Devon Witherspoon (67, six), Joey Porter (30, one), Deonte Banks (24 ½), Emmanuel Forbes (20), DJ Turner (nine), Cam Smith (6 ½), Garrett Williams (four), Julius Brents (three), Kelee Ringo (three), Clark Phillips (two) and Darius Rush (one).
As much as scouts admire the group as a whole, they were hesitant to label any one player as elite. The current young players most commonly referred to as falling in that category were Sauce Gardner (6-2 ½, 193, 4.46) and Patrick Surtain II (6-2, 208, 4.42).
Of the corners as a whole, another executive said, “There are probably 12 to 15 guys that can come in and at least be a No. 3 corner in the first year. Eight or so of those could be good No. 2’s. Probably be four to six in the first round.”
Meanwhile, it appears this will be the third draft in the past four years in which no safety has been taken in Round 1.
“This is unbelievable how bad this is,” one scout said. “(Brian) Branch, (Antonio) Johnson and then it’s kind of a free-for-all. It falls quick.”
Branch dominated the 16-scout poll with 13 firsts and 74 points, yet he is considered an underdog for the first round.
The rest of the vote was Johnson (39, one), Quan Martin (28), Sydney Brown (25, one), Jordan Battle (20, one), Jammie Robinson (17), Ji'ayir Brown (12), Jay Ward (seven), JL Skinner (five), Ronnie Hickman (four), Gervarrius Owens (four), Christopher Smith (three) and DeMarcco Hellams (two).
