Risen Star
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Best picks
1. Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State (No. 4 pick)
Of the 31 players drafted on Thursday, Elliott has a chance to make the biggest impact as a rookie. A Day 1 starter and a true three-down back, Elliott is the best blocking RB I've ever studied. That should help keep QB Tony Romo upright after he broke his collarbone twice last season. Remember: The Cowboys went 12-4 in 2014 relying on a dominant run game and an elite offensive line to take pressure off Romo. Elliott has the skill set to help Dallas return to that form.
2. Tennessee Titans: Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State (No. 8 pick)
General manager Jon Robinson did a masterful job of maneuvering in the draft. Would you rather have a player like OT Ronnie Stanley with the No. 1 overall pick or trade down and then trade back up, netting Conklin and pick Nos. 43, 45, 76 (in 2016) and first- and third-rounders (in 2017)? It's a no-brainer. Keeping QB Marcus Mariota on the field and healthy has to be this franchise's No. 1 priority. Conklin is one of the safest picks in this draft. He's a plug-and-play right tackle who has upside as a pass-blocker and shows great toughness in the run game.
3. Chicago Bears: Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia (No. 9 pick)
Knowing the draft is one thing; manipulating it to your advantage is another. Bears GM Ryan Pace and director of college scouting Joe Douglas did a masterful job of trading up to No. 9, knowing that Floyd would be off the board by the time they selected at 11. Floyd is the perfect fit for what the Bears need -- a 3-4 OLB with versatility.
Quick side note on this: The Bears trading up put the Giants in a really tough spot. Based on our information, the two guys they were targeting at No. 10 -- Floyd and Conklin -- were both swept out from under their feet with two teams trading up ahead of them.
4. San Diego Chargers: Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State (No. 3 pick)
Forget about scheme fit here. Yes, I know the Chargers play a base 3-4 scheme and that Bosa fits best as a 4-3 DE, but they will make it work. Bosa was a tone-setter throughout his entire career in Columbus, and I don't expect that to change in the NFL. He's not the fastest guy, but speed can be an overrated quality for a pass-rusher. Much like some of the best guys off the edge, Bosa wins with quickness, power, savvy and great hands.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State (No. 5 pick)
Gus Bradley has been looking for a big, physical cornerback, much like the ones he helped groom when he was the Seahawks' defensive coordinator. Bradley finally found his guy in Ramsey, who is the most physical CB in this class and once ran an opposing WR right into a coach on the sideline. Yes, he needs to work on his technique, but Ramsey is a great worker and a quick learner. Love this fit for a team that needed more playmakers on defense.
6. New Orleans Saints: Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville Cardinals (No. 12 pick)
Total home run pick. The Saints badly needed a guy like Rankins, who has one of the five best motors in this class among defensive linemen and is highly versatile. He can play all over New Orleans' defensive -- 3-technique and 4-3 nose tackle. His above-average workout numbers -- 34.5-inch vertical and 4.59-second short shuttle -- match up with what you see on tape.
Riskiest picks
1. Denver Broncos: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis (No. 26 pick)
I'm not one to doubt John Elway's ability to scout quarterbacks. But giving away a third-round pick to trade up and select Lynch when Mark Sanchez is your current starter is far different than drafting Brock Osweiler with Peyton Manning already in-house. I hope Denver chooses to develop Lynch in a similar manner to how Osweiler was brought up. His ceiling is much higher than Sanchez's, but if you have to go win a game right now, I'd take Sanchez every day of the week. While Lynch is a great developmental project, it's imperative that the Broncos manage expectations with him.
Another important note: I have a good source who tells me Dallas liked Lynch and was inquiring about trading back into the first round. Elway got his guy where he needed to get him. But this is very different than Osweiler.
2. Arizona Cardinals: Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi (No. 29 pick)
No matter what team took Nkemdiche, he would have made this list. Arizona has a very good track record with this stuff, but there is one thing that jumps off the table right away: The Cardinals recently traded for Chandler Jones, who has had a well-known incident with synthetic marijuana. Nkemdiche has had similar issues, and the two will now be sharing a defensive line meeting room. I'm sure Arizona has a plan -- and they have a deep enough roster where they can afford to take this risk -- but it's concerning.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida (No. 11 pick)
On a positive note, the Buccaneers didn't take Hargreaves at No. 9, as they got some extra draft capital (a fourth-rounder) for moving back to No. 11. Hargreaves is a great nickel corner, but it was still a bit early for him. It'll be interesting to track the success of Hargreaves, Floyd (who was taken No. 9) and Rankins (who was there at No. 11). The Bucs had their pick of those three.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/in...ay-best-riskiest-picks-round-1-nfl-draft-2016
1. Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State (No. 4 pick)
Of the 31 players drafted on Thursday, Elliott has a chance to make the biggest impact as a rookie. A Day 1 starter and a true three-down back, Elliott is the best blocking RB I've ever studied. That should help keep QB Tony Romo upright after he broke his collarbone twice last season. Remember: The Cowboys went 12-4 in 2014 relying on a dominant run game and an elite offensive line to take pressure off Romo. Elliott has the skill set to help Dallas return to that form.
2. Tennessee Titans: Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State (No. 8 pick)
General manager Jon Robinson did a masterful job of maneuvering in the draft. Would you rather have a player like OT Ronnie Stanley with the No. 1 overall pick or trade down and then trade back up, netting Conklin and pick Nos. 43, 45, 76 (in 2016) and first- and third-rounders (in 2017)? It's a no-brainer. Keeping QB Marcus Mariota on the field and healthy has to be this franchise's No. 1 priority. Conklin is one of the safest picks in this draft. He's a plug-and-play right tackle who has upside as a pass-blocker and shows great toughness in the run game.
3. Chicago Bears: Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia (No. 9 pick)
Knowing the draft is one thing; manipulating it to your advantage is another. Bears GM Ryan Pace and director of college scouting Joe Douglas did a masterful job of trading up to No. 9, knowing that Floyd would be off the board by the time they selected at 11. Floyd is the perfect fit for what the Bears need -- a 3-4 OLB with versatility.
Quick side note on this: The Bears trading up put the Giants in a really tough spot. Based on our information, the two guys they were targeting at No. 10 -- Floyd and Conklin -- were both swept out from under their feet with two teams trading up ahead of them.
4. San Diego Chargers: Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State (No. 3 pick)
Forget about scheme fit here. Yes, I know the Chargers play a base 3-4 scheme and that Bosa fits best as a 4-3 DE, but they will make it work. Bosa was a tone-setter throughout his entire career in Columbus, and I don't expect that to change in the NFL. He's not the fastest guy, but speed can be an overrated quality for a pass-rusher. Much like some of the best guys off the edge, Bosa wins with quickness, power, savvy and great hands.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State (No. 5 pick)
Gus Bradley has been looking for a big, physical cornerback, much like the ones he helped groom when he was the Seahawks' defensive coordinator. Bradley finally found his guy in Ramsey, who is the most physical CB in this class and once ran an opposing WR right into a coach on the sideline. Yes, he needs to work on his technique, but Ramsey is a great worker and a quick learner. Love this fit for a team that needed more playmakers on defense.
6. New Orleans Saints: Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville Cardinals (No. 12 pick)
Total home run pick. The Saints badly needed a guy like Rankins, who has one of the five best motors in this class among defensive linemen and is highly versatile. He can play all over New Orleans' defensive -- 3-technique and 4-3 nose tackle. His above-average workout numbers -- 34.5-inch vertical and 4.59-second short shuttle -- match up with what you see on tape.
Riskiest picks
1. Denver Broncos: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis (No. 26 pick)
I'm not one to doubt John Elway's ability to scout quarterbacks. But giving away a third-round pick to trade up and select Lynch when Mark Sanchez is your current starter is far different than drafting Brock Osweiler with Peyton Manning already in-house. I hope Denver chooses to develop Lynch in a similar manner to how Osweiler was brought up. His ceiling is much higher than Sanchez's, but if you have to go win a game right now, I'd take Sanchez every day of the week. While Lynch is a great developmental project, it's imperative that the Broncos manage expectations with him.
Another important note: I have a good source who tells me Dallas liked Lynch and was inquiring about trading back into the first round. Elway got his guy where he needed to get him. But this is very different than Osweiler.
2. Arizona Cardinals: Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi (No. 29 pick)
No matter what team took Nkemdiche, he would have made this list. Arizona has a very good track record with this stuff, but there is one thing that jumps off the table right away: The Cardinals recently traded for Chandler Jones, who has had a well-known incident with synthetic marijuana. Nkemdiche has had similar issues, and the two will now be sharing a defensive line meeting room. I'm sure Arizona has a plan -- and they have a deep enough roster where they can afford to take this risk -- but it's concerning.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida (No. 11 pick)
On a positive note, the Buccaneers didn't take Hargreaves at No. 9, as they got some extra draft capital (a fourth-rounder) for moving back to No. 11. Hargreaves is a great nickel corner, but it was still a bit early for him. It'll be interesting to track the success of Hargreaves, Floyd (who was taken No. 9) and Rankins (who was there at No. 11). The Bucs had their pick of those three.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/in...ay-best-riskiest-picks-round-1-nfl-draft-2016
