McShay - Tier Rankings

[Risen Star]

Click the link for commentary (ESPN Insider)

http://insider.espn.com/nfl/draft20.../19055607/mcshay-tier-rankings-2017-nfl-draft


Tier 1
The elite class of the 2017 NFL draft. These players should be starters from Day 1 and project as perennial Pro Bowl players.

2017: 1 player | 2016 (at this point in the process): 3 players

1. Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M (Grade: 95)*

-

Tier 2
A notch below the elite class but still worthy of top-20 picks in most drafts. These picks are expected to be plug-and-play starters.

2017: 8 players | 2016: 8 players

2. Jonathan Allen, DT, Alabama (94)
3. Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford (93)*
4. Jamal Adams, S, LSU (93)*
5. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU (92)*
6. Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State (92)*
7. Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State (92)*
8. Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama (92)
9. O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama (92)

-

Tier 3
These players carry late first-round grades.

2017: 10 players | 2016: 11 players

10. Forrest Lamp, G, Western Kentucky (91)
11. Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan (91)
12. Mike Williams, WR, Clemson (91)*
13. Haason Reddick, ILB, Temple (90)
14. Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee (90)*
15. David Njoku, TE, Miami (Fla.)(90)*
16. Garett Bolles, OT, Utah (90)*
17. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford (90)*
18. Kevin King, CB, Washington (90)
19. John Ross, WR, Washington (90)*

-

Tier 4
Would rather not reach for these prospects late in the first round, but they're good value picks in the first half of Round 2.

2017: 27 players | 2016: 23 players

20. Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State (89)*
21. Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State (89)*
22. Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan (89)
23. Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA (89)
24. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson (89)*
25. Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State (89)*
26. Charles Harris, OLB, Missouri (88)*
27. Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin (88)*
28. Jarrad Davis, ILB, Florida (88)
29. Budda Baker, S, Washington (88)*
30. Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida (88)*
31. Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina (88)*
32. Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU (87)
33. Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama (87)*
34. Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut (87)
35. Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama (87)*
36. Evan Engram, TE, Mississippi (85)
37. Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee (86)*
38. Tyus Bowser, OLB, Houston (86)
39. Zay Jones, WR, East Carolina (86)
40. Caleb Brantley, DT, Florida (86)*
41. Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan (86)
42. Marcus Maye, S, Florida (86)
43. Adoree' Jackson, CB, USC (86)*
44. Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan (85)*
45. DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame (85)*
46. Tim Williams, OLB, Alabama (85)

-

Tier 5
These players are middle- or late-second-round prospects.

2017: 14 players | 2016: 18 players

47. T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin (84)*
48. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC (84)*
49. Patrick Mahomes II, QB, Texas Tech (83)*
50. Curtis Samuel, WR, Ohio State (83)*
51. Teez Tabor, CB, Florida (83)*
52. Jordan Willis, DE, Kansas State (82)
53. Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado (81)
54. Zach Cunningham, ILB, Vanderbilt (81)*
55. Josh Jones, S, North Carolina State (81)*
56. Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma (80)*
57. Ryan Anderson, OLB, Alabama (80)
58. Fabian Moreau, CB, UCLA (80)
59. Taylor Moton, G, Western Michigan (80)
60. Adam Shaheen, TE, Ashland (80)*
61. Larry Ogunjobi, DT, Charlotte (80)

-

Tier 6
These players are third-round prospects. They could develop into solid starters, but they either have limited upside or come with a higher element of risk than players worth drafting in the first two rounds.

2017: 49 players | 2016: 42 players

62. Dion Dawkins, G, Temple (79)
63. Gerald Everett, TE, South Alabama (79)
64. Desmond King, CB, Iowa (79)
65. Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington (79)
66. Derek Rivers, OLB, Youngstown (79)
67. Chris Wormley, DT, Michigan (79)
68. Joshua Dobbs, QB, Tennessee (79)
69. Jake Butt, TE, Michigan (78)
70. Dan Feeney, G, Indiana (78)
71. Carlos Henderson, WR, Louisiana Tech (78)*
72. Damontae Kazee, CB, San Diego State (78)
73. Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State (78)*
74. Marcus Williams, S, Utah (78)*
75. Jermaine Eluemunor, OT, Texas A&M (78)
76. Carlos Watkins, DT, Clemson (78)
77. Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma (77)*
78. Nathan Peterman, QB, Pittsburgh (77)
79. Justin Evans, S, Texas A&M (77)
80. Sidney Jones, CB, Washington (77)*
81. Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky (77)
82. Jaleel Johnson, DT, Iowa (77)
83. Mack Hollins, WR, North Carolina (76)
84. Bucky Hodges, TE, Virginia Tech (76)*
85. DeMarcus Walker, DE, Florida State (76)
86. Dalvin Tomlinson, DT, Alabama (76)
87. Kendell Beckwith, ILB, LSU (75)
88. Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State (75)*
89. Pat Elflein, C, Ohio State (75)
90. D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas (75)*
91. Tanoh Kpassagnon, DE, Villanova (75)
92. Dorian Johnson, G, Pittsburgh (75)
93. Jordan Leggett, TE, Clemson (75)
94. Montravius Adams, DT, Auburn (75)
95. Cameron Sutton, CB, Tennessee (75)
96. Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo (74)
97. Duke Riley, ILB, LSU (74)
98. ArDarius Stewart, WR, Alabama (74)*
99. Malachi Dupre, WR, LSU (73)*
100. Carl Lawson, DE, Auburn (73)*
101. Tarell Basham, DE, Ohio (72)
102. Rasul Douglas, CB, West Virginia (72)
103. Alex Anzalone, ILB, Florida (71)*
104. Roderick Johnson, OT, Florida State (71)*
105. Zach Banner, OT, USC (70)
106. Antonio Garcia, G, Troy (70)
107. Trey Hendrickson, DE, Florida Atlantic (70)
108. Cole Hikutini, TE, Louisville (70)
109. John Johnson, S, Boston College (70)
110. Davis Webb, QB, California (70)

 

[CF74]

Wow only one elite prospect this year?

 

[DFWJC]

Wow only one elite prospect this year?

Did they have any last year?

 

[CF74]

Did they have any last year?

It seems every year there are 2-3 #1 picks they discuss.

 

[DFWJC]

I hope the "absolute BPA" people take note

This is draft 101 for Risen and others, but talent tiers are how GMs match talent with need. You dont just blindly take the player "on top of your board". There may be 4,5, 6 players in a row with identical grades.

 

[DFWJC]

It seems every year there are 2-3 #1 picks they discuss.

Just noticed on his list.
Yes, last year they had three at this point.
I looked it up
Bosa, Tunsil, Buckner

That was McShay

 

[noletime95]

19 first round grades, going to be a lot of reaching according to this

 

[Alexander]

Tier 2 is the one I struggle with the most. It is full of players that in "normal" years might not be up there, like safeties for example which are rarely in the Top 10.

Usually there is chunk of glamour position prospects there, either a QB, LT, pass rusher or CB.

Only Lattimore is there and he has some concerns with chronic hamstrings. I don't consider Solomon Thomas a great DE prospect that you would typically see.

It could very well be that Foster and Howard are the only players in that group that are "special" in terms of being simply capable of going in any draft in that grouping.

 

[Alexander]

19 first round grades, going to be a lot of reaching according to this

Most drafts end up that way. It is rare teams have 32 "first round grades".

 

[L-O-Jete]

Did they have any last year?

Zeke

 

[CF74]

Most drafts end up that way. It is rare teams have 32 "first round grades".

Except the Brownies

 

[tyke1doe]

Wow only one elite prospect this year?

Based on his projection. Remember, Dak Prescott wasn't considered an elite prospect either.

 

[DFWJC]

Zeke

I looked.
They had him upper tier 2.

 

[tyke1doe]

19 first round grades, going to be a lot of reaching according to this

You beat me to it. I was about to post the same thing.

 

[tyke1doe]

Most drafts end up that way. It is rare teams have 32 "first round grades".

The ranking, then, is meaningless since a team must make a first round selection from the available talent.

 

[Hardline]

I hope the "absolute BPA" people take note

This is draft 101 for Risen and others, but talent tiers are how GMs match talent with need. You dont just blindly take the player "on top of your board". There may be 4,5, 6 players in a row with identical grades.

Every BPA fan factors in the tiers.
Strawman argument.

 

[Risen Star]

Every BPA fan factors in the tiers.
Strawman argument.

BPA is a much more rare occurrence than most fans seem to think. Teams are often choosing amongst a group of similar rated players. It's just that when they're not, when you truly have one above all others it's not wise to reach. Take the talent.

 

[KingintheNorth]

Most drafts end up that way. It is rare teams have 32 "first round grades".

I think the average is 20 players per draft with first round grades. I've heard or read that from a few different scouts.

 

[DFWJC]

Every BPA fan factors in the tiers.
Strawman argument.

There are plenty in this forum that dont, and you know it, Hardline
Some (not all) look at the list , and whoever is at the top, they say take that guy or its not BPA.

 

[KingintheNorth]

I think this is our wheelhouse at 28...

21. Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State (89)*
22. Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan (89)
23. Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA (89)
29. Budda Baker, S, Washington (88)*
30. Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida (88)*
34. Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut (87)
35. Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama (87)*
43. Adoree' Jackson, CB, USC (86)*
44. Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan (85)*

and then this around 60...

48. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC (84)*
51. Teez Tabor, CB, Florida (83)*
52. Jordan Willis, DE, Kansas State (82)
53. Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado (81)
54. Zach Cunningham, ILB, Vanderbilt (81)*
55. Josh Jones, S, North Carolina State (81)*
58. Fabian Moreau, CB, UCLA (80)