Measuring kickers, stats adjusted for difficulty

[_sturt_]

Simplistic, maybe, but I awarded 1 times the kicker's success rate (FGM/FGA) for FGs from 19 yards or less... 2 times that stat from 20-29 yards... 3 times that stat from 30-39, 4 times that stat from 40-49, and 5 times that stat from 50 or more... then, because though the PAT is only worth 1 point in the game, in terms of difficulty it is the same as a FG from 30-39, I awarded the PAT success rate times 3.

Looking only at those with 10 or more games played...

And I come out with this as an overall score based on difficulty, for what it's worth...

Incidentally, the percentage in the next-to-last column at the right is overall kicking success rate, not weighted by distance.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Hmm, I'm not sure what to make of this. Maher's stats are clearly fluky: excellent from 50+, mediocre from 49-, so this measure moves him up in the rankings vs. raw percentage by rewarding the long hits more.

Compare to Randy Bullock, who's lousy from 50+ and excellent from 49-. His overall percentage is a tick better than Maher's, but he gets punished by your system. Personally, I think I'd rather have Bullock. With him, I have a pretty good idea of what I'm going to get. Uncertainty is the last thing I want from my kicking game.

 

[Jipper]

I have zero confidence in him unless it's from 55 plua

 

[pansophy]

But obviously Dan Bailey is at the bottom, so we made the right decision regardless of whether Maher is the long term answer.

 

[Setackin]

Got no choice but to ride with him in the playoffs. Take the best one in the draft.

 

[TheCoolFan]

I think 40-49 should be worth more than 50+ because that's the money range for an NFL kicker. Many careers have been made or ruined by a kicker's ability to make kicks in that range

 

[Reality]

While every kick matters, the most important kicks to me are game winning kicks. Can you count on the guy to make a kick late in the fourth quarter or overtime that wins you the game.

Teams can game plan around and compensate for iffy kickers in the first 3 quarters, but when the game is on the line, you need to know the kicker you have gives you a very good chance of making the important field goal and winning the game assuming it is not blocked or the snap mishandled.

 

[JD_KaPow]

While every kick matters, the most important kicks to me are game winning kicks. Can you count on the guy to make a kick late in the fourth quarter or overtime that wins you the game.

Teams can game plan around and compensate for iffy kickers in the first 3 quarters, but when the game is on the line, you need to know the kicker you have gives you a very good chance of making the important field goal and winning the game assuming it is not blocked or the snap mishandled.

Okay. How does that affect your choice/evaluation of kickers? Do you think that some kickers are better/worse in those situations than they are in regular situations? And how can you tell, given the tiny sample size you'd have to figure that out?

 

[Reality]

Okay. How does that affect your choice/evaluation of kickers? Do you think that some kickers are better/worse in those situations than they are in regular situations? And how can you tell, given the tiny sample size you'd have to figure that out?

I actually mentioned the issues with Maher in another thread a few days ago ..

The problem with Maher is that he loses his mechanics on some kicks, usually shorter ones. It's the same way when you're hitting a higher iron in golf and you shorten your swing or use a punch/whip motion to hit the ball rather than following through like you normally would. That's what made Bailey so good before the injuries because he was great at using the same mechanics every time at all distances.

The one good thing is that it seems less likely to happen on longer kicks which is why he tends to make a higher percentage of those.

When choosing a kicker before a season I would focus on mechanics and of course accuracy history. If the kicker has solid mechanics, you can tweak accuracy if they are a little off.

Maher seems quite accurate when his mechanics are solid, but like a lot of athletes do, he alters his mechanics sometimes when power is not needed. It's just like some baseball players will drop their shoulder to hit of the opposite field or quarterbacks will not set their feet sometimes when throwing a short pass. Its just more noticeable for a kicker since they get so few opportunities each game and their field goals usually have a bigger impact.

At this point, I think Maher has been a good kicker and they should stick with him. I think the special teams coach just needs to harp on using the same mechanics every kick no matter the distance.

 

[Q_the_man]

Simplistic, maybe, but I awarded 1 times the kicker's success rate (FGM/FGA) for FGs from 19 yards or less... 2 times that stat from 20-29 yards... 3 times that stat from 30-39, 4 times that stat from 40-49, and 5 times that stat from 50 or more... then, because though the PAT is only worth 1 point in the game, in terms of difficulty it is the same as a FG from 30-39, I awarded the PAT success rate times 3.

Looking only at those with 10 or more games played...

And I come out with this as an overall score based on difficulty, for what it's worth...

Incidentally, the percentage in the next-to-last column at the right is overall kicking success rate, not weighted by distance.

Based on this whole list, Jason Myers would be #1. More 50+ and 40+ fgs then anyboby, 33-36 overall, based on point system he is easily #1 one over Robbie Gould

 

[_sturt_]

Hmm, I'm not sure what to make of this. Maher's stats are clearly fluky: excellent from 50+, mediocre from 49-, so this measure moves him up in the rankings vs. raw percentage by rewarding the long hits more.

Compare to Randy Bullock, who's lousy from 50+ and excellent from 49-. His overall percentage is a tick better than Maher's, but he gets punished by your system. Personally, I think I'd rather have Bullock. With him, I have a pretty good idea of what I'm going to get. Uncertainty is the last thing I want from my kicking game.

Yeah, I'm not so sure that the two don't balance out... "uncertainty" when you're at the 38 getting ready for a 55 yard FG is absolutely better than having no confidence to even send a guy out there, and feeling no choice but to go for a 1st or pooch kick.

 

[_sturt_]

While every kick matters, the most important kicks to me are game winning kicks. Can you count on the guy to make a kick late in the fourth quarter or overtime that wins you the game.

Teams can game plan around and compensate for iffy kickers in the first 3 quarters, but when the game is on the line, you need to know the kicker you have gives you a very good chance of making the important field goal and winning the game assuming it is not blocked or the snap mishandled.

Not sure that I could consider my kicker "iffy" for 3 quarters, but then someone I can "count on" in the 4th... and to the point, it is reassuring that Maher has been able to win games for us, but the non-game-ending kicks missed only lend trepidation that he's likely "due" to miss the next time.

Maher seems quite accurate when his mechanics are solid, but like a lot of athletes do, he alters his mechanics sometimes when power is not needed. It's just like some baseball players will drop their shoulder to hit of the opposite field or quarterbacks will not set their feet sometimes when throwing a short pass. Its just more noticeable for a kicker since they get so few opportunities each game and their field goals usually have a bigger impact.

At this point, I think Maher has been a good kicker and they should stick with him. I think the special teams coach just needs to harp on using the same mechanics every kick no matter the distance.

Think you're right about this part, though I'm also sure the "harping" is not a new strategy. I'd only add that there are physical mechanics and there are psychological mechanics, and both are fundamental to success.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Yeah, I'm not so sure that the two don't balance out... "uncertainty" when you're at the 38 getting ready for a 55 yard FG is absolutely better than having no confidence to even send a guy out there, and feeling no choice but to go for a 1st or pooch kick.

I see it completely differently. If the trade-off is that I don't trust the guy to try from 55 but I'm highly confident he'll make anything inside 50, I'll take that every day of the week vs. the guy who could miss from anywhere.

 

[_sturt_]

I'm saying there is value to both consistency and to leg power... I'll accept a little inconsistency if, in turn, I'm also able to gain a little extra potential to score from a little more of the field....

Like I said, no attempt at all means ZERO chance to score from the 38. That's absolute. At least, even if there's some inconsistency, it's not like I'm not sending out my kicker AT ALL for that kick from the 28.

 

[_sturt_]

I think 40-49 should be worth more than 50+ because that's the money range for an NFL kicker. Many careers have been made or ruined by a kicker's ability to make kicks in that range

Shouldn't be "worth more," since if kicker A has only missed a FG from 45 yards and kicker B has only missed one from 55, we certainly have to value the one who only missed from 55 higher.

But having said that, your point did get me to thinking that the final tally ought to have some way of being sensitive to kickers' overall accuracy (next-to-last column).

So, this new one does that... the overall scores are multiplied by the overall accuracy percentages.

ALSO... it dawned on me that we need to inject some appreciation for what the average kicker does from each distance, so the weightings are now pegged accordingly to those averages.

 

[Reality]

Not sure that I could consider my kicker "iffy" for 3 quarters, but then someone I can "count on" in the 4th... and to the point, it is reassuring that Maher has been able to win games for us, but the non-game-ending kicks missed only lend trepidation that he's likely "due" to miss the next time.

I wasn't suggesting that's a great kicker to sign, but rather if you are already well into the season and have one like that how you can still make the best of it.

In a perfect world you would only sign a kicker that makes 100% of their kicks and that would solve everything along with living in a climate where it is 70 degrees year round and have a job where you get paid 5 times what you are worth.

Would I rather have a guy that never misses? Of course, so would all 32 teams. The chance of finding that guy right now is not very good no matter how well they come in and kick in a controlled tryout environment or what they did years ago because just a few months ago, Maher was making every kick and now he struggles at the weirdest times.

Sometimes you just have to play with the hand you have and right now, he's the hand you have and because of his 50+ yard and game winning kick success rate, you can game plan around that if necessary.

 

[JayFord]

Until maher kicks it to the centers butt im not concerned

 

[_sturt_]

I wasn't suggesting that's a great kicker to sign, but rather if you are already well into the season and have one like that how you can still make the best of it.

In a perfect world you would only sign a kicker that makes 100% of their kicks and that would solve everything along with living in a climate where it is 70 degrees year round and have a job where you get paid 5 times what you are worth.

Would I rather have a guy that never misses? Of course, so would all 32 teams. The chance of finding that guy right now is not very good no matter how well they come in and kick in a controlled tryout environment or what they did years ago because just a few months ago, Maher was making every kick and now he struggles at the weirdest times.

Sometimes you just have to play with the hand you have and right now, he's the hand you have and because of his 50+ yard and game winning kick success rate, you can game plan around that if necessary.

Agreed... and moreover, I think there's some lingering after-effect to having had an almost-perfect kicker precede Maher... in truth, you can do a whole lot worse... a whole lot worse... even ruling out that previous kicker who somehow has pulled a Vanderjagt, penthouse to outhouse.

Count me as content, but open to other competitors next summer, as is normal in most NFL camps anyhow.

 

[Reality]

Agreed... and moreover, I think there's some lingering after-effect to having had an almost-perfect kicker precede Maher... in truth, you can do a whole lot worse... a whole lot worse... even ruling out that previous kicker who somehow has pulled a Vanderjagt, penthouse to outhouse.

Count me as content, but open to other competitors next summer, as is normal in most NFL camps anyhow.

I agree about him following Bailey being an issue for many of us because prior to Bailey's injuries, we were quite spoiled and lucky to have him. I remember being so confident in Bailey that any time he was kicking inside the 40, I rarely watched because I knew he would make it and since a commercial break was coming up next, it was a great way to get an extended break.

As for competition, I have always been a fan of competition for every position. I don't care if you have Tom Brady as your quarterback, Ezekiel Elliott as your running back, etc., I would make every position an open battle every year. While you expect your existing players to win most of those battles, doing that helps you find young and/or cheaper talent before you need them and also helps you get something (draft picks, salary cap space, etc.) for aging players before they lose a step or at least before other teams realize it.

 

[_sturt_]

New finding/realization... of the NFC kickers ranking here, we're only at a clear disadvantage to New Orleans, and have a slight (though not significant) advantage over SEA's aging veteran this weekend.

In this second improvement on the original, there's no change to the formula, but to make it easier to read, I multiplied all results by 10 to move the decimal point, and set the playoff teams' kickers in bold red.