St. Louis Rams Draft Prolog: ABQCOWBOY/ABQJr. Co GMs.
Overview
When we put together our draft strategy for the Rams, we considered a few key points.
- Key Injuries
- Future Cap Strategy
- Team Needs
- Next Step methodoligy
Key Injuries:
The biggest areas of concern for the Rams, in the way of inujuries are Chris Long DE, Roger Saffold OT/OG and obviously, the health of Sam Bradford QB. Chris Long has been injured the last two seasons and the Rams have growing concerns that Long may not be able to live to see the end of his contract. Saffold seems to be destined for the Guard position and Bradford needs to be surrounded by decent talent so that the Rams can actually see what a team QB'd by Bardford for an entire year might actually look like. Only then can they evaluate Bradford and their QB position.
Future Cap Strategy:
Like many teams in the NFL, the Rams do not share their cap situation freely but, it's widely known that they are up against their cap as of now. The Rams do have the ability to create space by simply re-negotiating contracts on Bardford, Saffold, Long, Laurinaitis, Dahl, Finnigan and a few other big contracts or, they could simply release a few of these players and use the cap savings to apply towards FAs. They do have some cap flexibility available to them.
Team Needs:
Rams team needs were Offensive Tackle, Safety, Wide Receiver, Defensive Tackle, Defensive End, Offensive Guard and Linebacker.
The Rams move of Saffold from LT to Guard will effect the depth of the Tackle position. Long was signed last year to be the starting LT and he was effective, while he was in. However, he did suffer an injury last season and he is not getting any younger. Joe Barksdale played RT for the Rams last year and he did a fine job, considering. This puts the Rams in an interesting position. They can try and re-negotiate with Long or, simply allow him to stay in place and then make a move with him in 2015. His contract is such that if they cut him this year, they only save 1.5 Million with 7.75 in dead cap money. However, next year, they can save 8 M with 2.5 in dead cap space. Basically, the Rams have some leverage here. It would make sense for Long to renegotiate his contract and this would allow the Rams to play him for another year at LT and continue to develop his replacement. If the Rams can get this done, then Long could be moved to RT at a reduced price, eventually, and Barksdale could be much needed depth at the position while they continue to develope Mike Person.
Rams were terrible at Safety last year. In fact, this has been a problem for them for some time. They just are not getting it done at this position for the last few years. Rams Drafted TJ McDonald last year and Rodney McCloud the year before.. They will need to have both of those guys step up this season to show improvement or the Rams secondary, will once again give up big plays at an alarming rate. An upgrade to FS could be useful here.
The Rams have a very nice pair of WRs now but they don't really have that #1 guy that can allow the team to take full advantage of the passing game. Givens is a good #2 WR. I don't think he's the true prime time guy who you have to plan for put he's a nice young talent who is getting better at the Pro game and a guy who could be a solid #2. They also drafted a pair of West Virginia WRs in Steadman Bailey and Tavon Austin. Both of these guys need to learn to be Pro WRs but both have some skills, especially Tavon Austin. He needs to learn to run routes but you can not teach his kind of speed and agility. He will be a deadly threat in both the Passing Game and STs, once he gets a little more experience. What they need is a number one guy who can be the focal point of the passing game and the opposing defenses.
The Rams, as we explained earlier, have moved Saffold to RG and have Harvy Dahl at LG, as of 2013. It's unclear as to Saffold's future. If he decides to re-sign, it will be for RG money. No way of knowing what other teams might be willing to offer, if they offer him a chance at Tackle. Harvy Dahl is in the last year of his current contract. He could be with the Rams or he could be gone or he could be extended. Williams, the other starting Guard is an FA. I doubt he will be brought back but it's likely that the Rams will look to FA to fill their needs at Guard, could be Rob Turner FA of Tennessee. Either way, they are probably OK for this year at the position but next year, that could change.
Perhaps the most productive position on the entire Rams team last year was Defensive Tackle. The combination of Michael Brockers and Kendall Langford were tremendous. Together, they combined for 95 tackles, 10.5 Sacks, 4 PD and 1 FF but more then that, they were extremely effective against the run and they covered up the Rams LBs, which is what their scheme dictates. Perhaps most importantly, they freed up the DE's and made NFL OLs focus on the two of them. This allowed the Rams DEs to post 27.5 sacks and 104 tackles with 1 PD and 8 FF. That DL was ultra productive and it's really due to the DTs and the problem they create inside. The problem you have, with success like this is that eventually, you have to pay them. Both of these guys are signed through 2015 but I doubt the Rams will be able to retain both. They will need to make decisions in the near future.
Defensive End would seem solid enough, after the season Quinn and Long just posted but, Long's contract is substantial and Quinn will be coming up on a new contract soon. After 19 sacks, he's not going to be cheap. In fact, he's going to take a boat load of money to keep. The Rams will likely try to get Long to restructure or, by next season, he could be a cap casualty. This year, Long would cost the team 2.8 M and account for 17.7 in dead money, if he were cut. However, next year, that all turns around and he represents a savings of 8.5 M in savings and 3 M in dead cap money. Add to that the fact he's missed some games with injuries this past season and you can see how the Rams may decide to play hard ball with Long. What the Rams need to do is to create a nice rotation at DE to try and save Long and Quinn and also prepare for the time when, like DT, one of them has to go. Now is the time to re-negotiate Long for a more acceptable contract. He won't get paid what the Rams can pay him IMO this year, IMO. The Rams have all the leverage here. I think the Rams try to renegotiate with Long and simply wait for Quinn. If Long doesn't re-negotiate, then they release Long next year and plan to resign Quinn when he's up.
The LB position for the Rams is interesting. The Rams spent big money on Laurinaitis last year, they drafted OgleeTree, the huge SS from Georgia and turned him into a WLB and they brought in Will Witherspoon to replace Jo-Lon Dunbar on the strong side. Dunbar had a great season in 2012 but was suspended for the first 4 games of the season in 2013, was cut when the Rams brought in Witharspoon, was brought back later in the year and now he's an FA. The question is, will the Rams resign him? I think it's possible that they just might. They are better with him n the field and it's likely that he will not be too expensive. However, he is too expensive, the Rams may elect to move on and simply resign Witherspoon as he was really not all that expensive last year. They could decide to keep both but it's unlikely. I expect one will be cut and the other will be brought back. As for Ogletree, he had an exceptional Rookie year with 117 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 10 PD, 1 INT for a TD and 6 FF and an All Rookie Team Selection.
Next Step Methodology:
The Rams are a relatively young football team but they are also very talented in a lot of areas. They are exactly the kind of team that can go either way in the next few years. They can take that next step and become a real contender or, they can fail to move forward and become one of those teams that is jailed by Cap limitations and will be forced to start piecing players out before they ever have a chance to fulfill their potential as a team. In the next few seasons, we will see which of these two paths, the Rams find themselves on. The key here is going to be Bradford. If Bradford can get himself together physically and become the QB everybody thought he could be when he was drafted, the Rams could be a strong contender for the NFC. They have the defensive pieces to challenge Seattle and San Fran. They have talent on the Offensive side of the ball. They must take that next step forward and this draft basically revolves around two things. 1. Taking that next step forward by doing whatever possible to help Bradford and 2. Provide the Rams with as much flexibility with the cap as possible so that they can retain important pieces or, that they have talent in need areas to move on if they have to cut talent in need areas. This is all about the next step.
The Draft
1st Rd. (#2) Jadaveon Clowney Clemson University DE 6'6" 274 lbs. - The number one overall player on our board. Supremely Gifted underclassmen at an impact position that could not be overlooked. The strategy going into this draft was always Clowney if we had to stay at #2 and if he were still on the board. We entered this draft understanding that DE was not the biggest need for the Rams but we also understood that Clowney is a once in a generation kind of impact player. Based on this, we developed two strategies for the draft. One if we traded down and the other if we stayed at #2. He has the size and speed ratio to dominate at the next level. Right now, today, he is a bigger DWare. In a few years, he will grow into his body and I project him to be more like Julius Peppers. With the Rams current and future cap situation, we believe that taking Clowney will allow the Rams to make certain moves that will ensure they stay stong in what is the toughest defensive Division in Football. If Clowney receives the coaching he needs, he will be the most dominant pass rusher in the NFL. We simply could not pass that up.
1st Rd. (#13) Marqise Lee University of Southern California WR 6'0" 195 lbs. - Going into this draft, we identified 3 legitimate 1st Round players at WR. Watkins, Evans and Lee. Of the three WRs, we felt as if Lee was the most NFL ready. He does it all, makes the tough catch over the middle, makes the spectacular catch over the top, runs excellent routes, blocks in the running game very well, has excellent running skills after the catch and he's intelligent. He will need to get on a Pro workout regiment and get bigger and stronger but the sky is the limit for him. He is a team football guy, no off the field issues and all the talent you need to be a #1 WR in the NFL. Together with the talent the Rams already have in their receiving corps, we think that Lee will be the last piece of the puzzle. The true #1 WR that allows Bradford and the rest of those young WRs to come into their own.
2nd Rd. (#44) Dominique Easley Florida State University DT 6'3" 285 lbs. - We discussed this pick a great deal, going back and forth over it but eventually, we decided that he was a perfect player for what we were looking for with the Rams future DL needs. As we discussed earlier, the Rams may be forced to let some very talented players go in the next few years. They also need to develop a rotation on their DL that allows them to rest some of their players without having to change scheme or have performance fall off. Easley will fit into this strategy perfectly. Prior to the knee injury, he was one of, if not the most, disruptive DT in major college football. Cat quick in his first step, he uses his hands well and just naturally creates havoc in the backfield. He played DT at FSU but we think he can also play Strong Side DE in a 43. Excellent lateral movement allows him to chase down ball carriers from behind. Easley is the guy in the Locker Room that gives the rest of the team confidence. He is a supremely confident guy in his abilities to play the game. You can't help but have this rub off on the rest of the team. He will be a huge asset in the Locker Room. He'll have to work hard to finish up his rehab but once this happens and we can get him into a normal offseason regiment, we believe he will get bigger and stronger and be a perfect fit in both our DT and DE rotation.
3rd Rd. (#75) Telvon Smith Florida State University OLB 6'3" 218 lbs. - Smith is another one of those really fast, really smart football players. Some guys just understand the game. They see it at a different speed and Smith, we believe, is one of those guys. We are not certain how fast he will run but we believe he will be in the 4.4, 4.5 area. He fits perfectly into the Rams Linebacker mold, light, fast, smart agressive. An excellent down hill tackler if he can stay clean. Fits the Rams scheme perfectly but more then that, if he runs as well as I think he might, I see him as a Darren Woodson type player. He might just be able to move to Safety. If not, he's a LB who can be on the field all four downs. At worst, he's an excellent dime or Nickle LB who can cover the slot or TEs. He's probably not a day one starter, like most players, he will have to get bigger and stronger but he's just a solid player. Exceptional instincts for the game and he loves to play. Can't really have too many of those guys on your team IMO and he also allows the Rams to make cap moves, should it be necessary, at OLB.
4th Rd. (#106) JaWuan James University of Tennessee OT 6'6" 316 lbs. - James was not ranked nearly as high as some of the other OTs available in this draft but he probably should have been ranked much higher. I see the situation with the Vols this year a lot like the one at USC when they had Kalil and Smith at LT and RT in 2010. Smith played RT but had the talent to play LT. I think James might be in exactly the same situation at Tennessee this year with Antonio Richardson. Prototypical Size, excellent feet, nice strength, uses his hands very well, smooth in his technique. I think he's the better LT prospect between the two. He will need to work on his run blocking technique a bit, he has a tendency to reach occasionally, when he gets to the second level but that can be corrected. All of the natural capability is there. At best, he turns out to be an excellent LT for the Rams. At worst, he provides very good depth and is that swing OT that every team is looking for. He's patient, very mature and methodical in his approach to the game. He'll be a guy you will not have to worry about off the field and his upside is off the charts. If he develops, again, it provides much needed cap relief for the Rams and allows them to either negotiate a nice deal for Barksdale, renegotiate Long or cut him next year and use that cap money to spend on other positions of need.
This is our Draft. We would like to take this opportunity to thank Risen for all of the effort and time he put into this. It's always fun for us and it's never easy for him. Appreciate you man.
