Mickey Spagnola is worthless

[jterrell]

Did you hear Garrett after the game? When asked, he talked about being in front of or behind the chains on third down. This game is built around third down. On ESPN they were having a round table chat and one of the hosts - thew quarterback,,,forget his name - talked about third downs and how drives are centered around third downs and making firsts.

NFLN had a similar discussion Sunday evening.

I understand your point. I agree with it, and this is what has made the Dallas D better. It stands to reason if you give the other guys less plays on offense, its translates to less opportunities to score.

But this game is based on third down. For both sides of the ball. So while the offense helps a great deal, the Dallas D has to get off the field on third downs.

So Mickey - while a nimrod - was about one quarter right.

Yup.
I've heard very smart football guys say you pay franchise QBs for 3rd down.
That their job is to get you conversions on 3rd down.

 

[Galian Beast]

Did you hear Garrett after the game? When asked, he talked about being in front of or behind the chains on third down. This game is built around third down. On ESPN they were having a round table chat and one of the hosts - thew quarterback,,,forget his name - talked about third downs and how drives are centered around third downs and making firsts.

NFLN had a similar discussion Sunday evening.

I understand your point. I agree with it, and this is what has made the Dallas D better. It stands to reason if you give the other guys less plays on offense, its translates to less opportunities to score.

But this game is based on third down. For both sides of the ball. So while the offense helps a great deal, the Dallas D has to get off the field on third downs.

So Mickey - while a nimrod - was about one quarter right.

The Dallas defense has performed almost exactly the same on 3rd down as it did last year.

 

[jterrell]

The Dallas defense has performed almost exactly the same on 3rd down as it did last year.

The defense is a couple percentage points better than last year and the offense is ~20% better.
Dallas only lost the time of possession battle last year by less than 1 minute per game.

Dallas has been far better about scoring in the red zone and sustaining drives to get to the red zone.

Mickey's point is ultimately correct. You can win time of possession but each team takes turns with the ball so what matter is whether or not you score TDs.
Dallas has been good this year at Scoring 7 to get ahead then being able to milk the clock and get at least 3 to get or extend the lead

 

[blindzebra]

Not only is the defense better on 3rd down % 41.7 to 43.3 % but the percentage of third down plays is also down 2% so we are not giving up as many first downs on 1st or 2nd down either which is illustrated by a difference of 24 first downs/game down to 17.

 

[erod]

The two teams with the best TOP last year were New Orleans and San Diego.

Seattle was 17th. Denver was 10th. Dallas was 24th, and Philly was dead last.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

TOP is a liar's statistic and doesn't correlate to winning or scoring points well.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

time of possession can lactate the clock, yes.
But it is WHAT YOU DO with possessions that count.

 

[Crown Royal]

The two teams with the best TOP last year were New Orleans and San Diego.

Seattle was 17th. Denver was 10th. Dallas was 24th, and Philly was dead last.

Add to that that the differential between rankings is really not all that much.

 

[Crown Royal]

Not only is the defense better on 3rd down % 41.7 to 43.3 % but the percentage of third down plays is also down 2% so we are not giving up as many first downs on 1st or 2nd down either which is illustrated by a difference of 24 first downs/game down to 17.

There should be a First Downs Earned metric for offenses and a First Downs Allowed metric for defenses. Third down % is a nice stat, but doesn't take into account first downs earned on 1st or 2nd down.

@percyhoward
@AdamJT13

 

[erod]

Add to that that the differential between rankings is really not all that much.

It does wear down defenses, and it frustrates high-powered offenses when you keep them on the sideline. That happened against Brees.

But it doesn't mean diddly if you're not putting the ball in the end zone.

 

[ConstantReboot]

TOP is not underrated in my opinion. In fact, I think its under-utilized when it comes to game-planning.

If your a team that puts a lot focus on winning the TOP your going to have two very important components that will factor in your favor: 1. A strong running attack. 2. A good defense.

Everyone believes that you need a strong running game and a good defense to win championships and superbowls. TOP is a byproduct of having those two components work hand in hand. And if a team wants to win the TOP they better make sure those two components are part of the overall strategy in building the a team because you can't have one without the other and expect to win TOP.

Landry had a good running attack and a good defense.

So did the team of the 90s.

Thus TOP always seem to favor the Cowboys during that era.

 

[blindzebra]

Not only is the defense better on 3rd down % 41.7 to 43.3 % but the percentage of third down plays is also down 2% so we are not giving up as many first downs on 1st or 2nd down either which is illustrated by a difference of 24 first downs/game down to 17.

I actually mis-spoke the percentage is up 2 % so we have caused more 3rd downs this season but the point remains the same.

 

[Zordon]

I like mickey. He's hardheaded but he's our hardhead damnit.

 

[cej757]

I listened to the episode. Both Mickey and Broaddus said they're still worried about the defense and Broaddus said if Eli would've got the ball back late in the 4th he would drove them down to tie the game and possibly could've won it in OT.

The caller said the defense did enough throughout the game to win it and that you can't use would've should've could've because the Cowboys offense sealed the win. Broaddus said something about not relying on turnovers to win games.

Mickey was taking shots at Sterling Moore saying he's not better than Morris Claiborne and fans need to stop saying Claiborne is a bust. Said Eli went at Moore all day with Ruben Randle.
IMO it Took Eli a tough 4th down TD throw to Beckham just to cut it to 7. I thought the defense played well especially against the run.

 

[T-RO]

Time of Possession is utterly irrelevant, except for those cases when you need to milk the clock to close out a game or a half. Traditional understanding of TOP reflects juvenile nonsense that we hear about when we are little. It should disappear with more mature scrutiny, but the notions often persists in any fanbase.

Mickey is correct that TOP has no bearing on the salient fact that each team will have the same number of opportunities. Yes, it is possible to "shorten a game" but in that scenario both teams will enjoy abbreviated possessions. It's not the advantage that some fans think.

The number of plays matter can sometimes carry with it this advantage: you wear down the defense--and it takes more energy to defend than to play offense. Long drives can also demoralize the defense.

This whole discussion shows how people get fuzzy in matters of causality and causation. A three-and-out is a beautiful thing not because of TOP, but because it constitutes the thwarting of an opponent's treasured possession...and it yields superior field position.

Scoring in four plays...ala the Broncos...carries its own advantages, let's not forget. You have fewer chances to sabotage a drive via turnover or penalty.

 

[AdamJT13]

There should be a First Downs Earned metric for offenses and a First Downs Allowed metric for defenses. Third down % is a nice stat, but doesn't take into account first downs earned on 1st or 2nd down.

@percyhoward
@AdamJT13

Football Outsiders already has a stat for this -- they call it Drive Success Rate, although it should be called Series Success Rate. It measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown. Last year, we finished dead last at .743 (in other words, 74.3 percent of the time the opponent had a first-down play, they gained another first down or scored a TD within that series of downs). This year, we're ranked fourth at .671.

 

[mahoneybill]

time of possession can lactate the clock, yes.
But it is WHAT YOU DO with possessions that count.

Agree. Also the field position from which you start has to be a factor. What I am very impressed with is our ability this year to drive 70 to 80 yards during our TOP to a score. Get us to the opponents 35 and we are already thinking FG with a kicker like Bailey.

 

[percyhoward]

There should be a First Downs Earned metric for offenses and a First Downs Allowed metric for defenses. Third down % is a nice stat, but doesn't take into account first downs earned on 1st or 2nd down.

@percyhoward
@AdamJT13

Ah, the bat signal.

TOP per game doesn't tell you who's more responsible for that TOP, offense or defense. But you can find that out by measuring the TOP of each possession. Going into the Giants game, both the offense and defense were top 10.

TOP per Drive
offense 3:21 (2nd)
defense 2:34 (9th)

What we have to keep in mind is that, while the Cowboys' offense has definitely been a factor in limiting the number of opponents' drives, the offense is not a factor in how the defense has performed on those drives. This year, our defense ranks 7th in points allowed per drive. Last year it ranked 30th.

 

[Crown Royal]

Football Outsiders already has a stat for this -- they call it Drive Success Rate, although it should be called Series Success Rate. It measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown. Last year, we finished dead last at .743 (in other words, 74.3 percent of the time the opponent had a first-down play, they gained another first down or scored a TD within that series of downs). This year, we're ranked fourth at .671.

That pretty much tells me what I feel like I am seeing this year.

How are we doing on this offensively?

 

[percyhoward]

Drive Success Rate

Beat me to it.