Might as well look ahead

TWOK11

TWOK11

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Prefacing this with the following: I IN NO WAY believe we will make the playoffs. I think best case scenario we go 9-7, and that's if Philly benches everyone week 17. But since we still technically have a reason to watch, might as well know who to root for.

First of all, I'm not gonna talk about Green Bay because they already have 6 losses and would need to win out mostly without Rodgers to even be a factor. I'm also not talking about Arizona because they also have 6 losses, we own the tiebreaker and in this scenario we win out. I'm also granting the Eagles and Vikings the division crowns.

The 7 contenders for the two wildcard spots are New Orleans, Los Angeles, Carolina, Atlanta, Seattle, Detroit and Dallas.

1. Obviously, Dallas must win out barring a truly bizarre collapse by multiple teams. We want Philly to WIN every game, because we want them to rest everyone week 17 AND they play a couple teams we need to lose.

2. New Orleans plays the following:
Carolina
@Atlanta
New York Jets
Atlanta
@Tampa Bay

We want New Orleans to WIN every game, they have an easier closing schedule than Carolina, are extremely unlikely to lose 3 of their last 5 and are more likely to beat us if it comes down to conference record tiebreakers.

3: Carolina plays the following:
@New Orleans
Minnesota
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
@Atlanta

We want Carolina to LOSE to NO (discussed above), LOSE at least one of their next three and then WIN or LOSE the last game depending on how Atlanta's schedule plays out. IF they beat NO, this changes slightly. To be honest, either NO or Carolina will probably claim the #5 seed as their schedules set up well for 11-12 wins. The two discusions may end up being moot.

4: Los Angeles plays the following:
@ Arizona
Philadelphia
@Seattle
@Tennessee
San Francisco

We REALLY need LA to WIN every game except Philly. They need to win the division because, if we face them for a WC spot, they would have to finish 9-7 as they own the H2H tiebreaker. If Seattle wins the West our odds of making the playoff drop to something close to nothing. They can help us by beat Arizona (though a formality) and Seattle.

5: Seattle plays the following:
Philly
@jacksonville
LA Rams
@Dallas
Arizona

We need Seattle to LOSE as many games as possible. They MUST lose at least two including the game to us. We would then win the tiebreaker at 10-6 based on H2H. You should be rooting against them EVERY week.

6: Atlanta
Minnesota
New Orleans
@Tampa Bay
@New Orleans
Carolina

They own the tiebreaker over us, and so we need them to finish 9-7 or worse. That means going at most 2-3. ROOT AGAINST THEM EVERY GAME, with the one possible exception being if Carolina falls apart and we need them to beat Carolina week 17. Thankfully they have the toughest closing schedule in the league, facing FIVE probable playoff teams. They could very easily finish 1-4.

6: Detroit already has 5 losses and depending on who they lose #6 to we could beat them out for the tiebreaker at 10-6. They do have an easy closing schedule but they are also a very average team. Regardless, root against them every week.

Ideally, it plays out like this: Philly, Minnesota, NO and LA win their divisions. Carolina probably takes the 5 seed and thus we must beat out 7-4 Atlanta, 7-4 Seattle and 6-5 Detroit.

So this weekend, we're rooting for:
New Orleans to beat Carolina
Philly to beat Seattle
Minnesota to beat Atlanta
LA to beat Arizona
Baltimore to beat Detroit
Tampa Bay to beat Green Bay
 
If we're 8-6 when Zeke comes back, I'll look at the possibilities. Remember, pretty much every site that calculates playoff odds had us at 1-3% to make the playoffs before kickoff. So I'm just going to go about my business for now.
 
TWOK11 said:
Prefacing this with the following: I IN NO WAY believe we will make the playoffs. I think best case scenario we go 9-7, and that's if Philly benches everyone week 17. But since we still technically have a reason to watch, might as well know who to root for.

First of all, I'm not gonna talk about Green Bay because they already have 6 losses and would need to win out mostly without Rodgers to even be a factor. I'm also not talking about Arizona because they also have 6 losses, we own the tiebreaker and in this scenario we win out. I'm also granting the Eagles and Vikings the division crowns.

The 7 contenders for the two wildcard spots are New Orleans, Los Angeles, Carolina, Atlanta, Seattle, Detroit and Dallas.

1. Obviously, Dallas must win out barring a truly bizarre collapse by multiple teams. We want Philly to WIN every game, because we want them to rest everyone week 17 AND they play a couple teams we need to lose.

2. New Orleans plays the following:
Carolina
@Atlanta
New York Jets
Atlanta
@Tampa Bay

We want New Orleans to WIN every game, they have an easier closing schedule than Carolina, are extremely unlikely to lose 3 of their last 5 and are more likely to beat us if it comes down to conference record tiebreakers.

3: Carolina plays the following:
@New Orleans
Minnesota
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
@Atlanta

We want Carolina to LOSE to NO (discussed above), LOSE at least one of their next three and then WIN or LOSE the last game depending on how Atlanta's schedule plays out. IF they beat NO, this changes slightly. To be honest, either NO or Carolina will probably claim the #5 seed as their schedules set up well for 11-12 wins. The two discusions may end up being moot.

4: Los Angeles plays the following:
@ Arizona
Philadelphia
@Seattle
@Tennessee
San Francisco

We REALLY need LA to WIN every game except Philly. They need to win the division because, if we face them for a WC spot, they would have to finish 9-7 as they own the H2H tiebreaker. If Seattle wins the West our odds of making the playoff drop to something close to nothing. They can help us by beat Arizona (though a formality) and Seattle.

5: Seattle plays the following:
Philly
@jacksonville
LA Rams
@Dallas
Arizona

We need Seattle to LOSE as many games as possible. They MUST lose at least two including the game to us. We would then win the tiebreaker at 10-6 based on H2H. You should be rooting against them EVERY week.

6: Atlanta
Minnesota
New Orleans
@Tampa Bay
@New Orleans
Carolina

They own the tiebreaker over us, and so we need them to finish 9-7 or worse. That means going at most 2-3. ROOT AGAINST THEM EVERY GAME, with the one possible exception being if Carolina falls apart and we need them to beat Carolina week 17. Thankfully they have the toughest closing schedule in the league, facing FIVE probable playoff teams. They could very easily finish 1-4.

6: Detroit already has 5 losses and depending on who they lose #6 to we could beat them out for the tiebreaker at 10-6. They do have an easy closing schedule but they are also a very average team. Regardless, root against them every week.

Ideally, it plays out like this: Philly, Minnesota, NO and LA win their divisions. Carolina probably takes the 5 seed and thus we must beat out 7-4 Atlanta, 7-4 Seattle and 6-5 Detroit.

So this weekend, we're rooting for:
New Orleans to beat Carolina
Philly to beat Seattle
Minnesota to beat Atlanta
LA to beat Arizona
Baltimore to beat Detroit
Tampa Bay to beat Green Bay
Click to expand...
That's too much crap for my drunk *** to decifer!
 
Feels like a bingo game, get real close yet no cigar. Too much has to happen even with Dallas winning out. That loss to the Rams really hurts :(

10-6 may not even be enough this season, stay tuned..........
 
Super_Kazuya said:
If we're 8-6 when Zeke comes back, I'll look at the possibilities. Remember, pretty much every site that calculates playoff odds had us at 1-3% to make the playoffs before kickoff. So I'm just going to go about my business for now.
Click to expand...

Sure

However, IF we make the playoffs (somehow), this is a division champion caliber team when completely healthy. We'd be one hell of a 6 seed.
 
Super_Kazuya said:
If we're 8-6 when Zeke comes back, I'll look at the possibilities. Remember, pretty much every site that calculates playoff odds had us at 1-3% to make the playoffs before kickoff. So I'm just going to go about my business for now.
Click to expand...

And next week that’ll boost up to 10-15 percent.

I hate stats that aren’t really based on anything.

I think we beat the Giants but I wouldn’t place money on the Raiders game. If we beat the Giants, that game has trap game written all over it. Obviously, the Raiders have been a disappointment but they’re as talented as any team in the league.
 
Thanks for writing this up. Long shot, but that’s what being a fan is about sometimes. Zeke could come back at a really good time if we can take care of business the next couple of weeks and get healthy.
 
robjay04 said:
No way I root for the Eagles.

Go 10-6, I think we get in...if not, at least we went out fighting.
Click to expand...
:hammer::hammer::clap::clap::clap:Of course, the odds of us winning out are not great, but like you said, go down fighting.

Excellent post OP............
 
robjay04 said:
No way I root for the Eagles.

Go 10-6, I think we get in...if not, at least we went out fighting.
Click to expand...
Math isn’t in our favor with tiebreakers but I wouldn’t be as upset if 10-6 didn’t get us in. Back to back double digit win seasons is definitely a positive
 
Parcells4Life said:
Math isn’t in our favor with tiebreakers but I wouldn’t be as upset if 10-6 didn’t get us in. Back to back double digit win seasons is definitely a positive
Click to expand...

Definitely some confidence going into next season.

Still...it’ll guarantee Garrett’s job and I was just starting to really hate that guy.
 
Interesting that we could win 5 of 6 NFC East games and still miss the playoffs.
 
Carolina will also face Rodgers in his return. Also look at conference records. We'll be 8-4 if we run table.
 
Playing the playoff generator and having multiple teams at 10-6 benefits us in tie breakers
 
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