MM explains his thought process of going for 2

[Trajan]

You have to manage the time down 8 just like you would if you were down 9.

There is less time, if any time at all, to manage if you go for the pt after first, and then try for the two point conversion at the very end of the game. You want to delay the critical decision point to the very end of the game. Why not know earlier and have more time to do execute an onside and then score again ?

 

[Big_D]

I wouldn’t even care about this call if we didn’t already see complete failures on 2 fake punts and a 4th down conversion in 2 games. Coaching hasn’t been smart. And these calls will kill them more often than not. I’m all for showing confidence, but you also have to know when to take the points and play field position. They got lucky this time..

 

[Runwildboys]

No, if you are down 8 you can play it exactly the same as if you are down 9, seeing as how a 2-pt. conversion is basically a coin flip. Unless your assuming you convert the 2, you have to leave time to get the onsides and score, which is no different than how you'd have to play it down 9.

If that's your mindset, what's the difference when you go for two?

 

[HungryLion]

Of course you’re choosing for the possibility to be down 9 than 8. He knew that was a possibility .

The only way it makes sense is if you’re playing to win not tie. Meaning if if you convert then you’re going for 2 again to win instead of going to OT.

And based on the first game when he went for it in 4th and 3 instead of tying the game this would make more sense.

No. That’s not the only way it makes sense. You have to go for two at some point or another. There is 0 advantage to waiting to go for two. The odds of getting the two are the same whether you go for it now or after the next TD

 

[Future]

If that's your mindset, what's the difference when you go for two?

That's not my mindset, it's the options.

I don't mind going for 2, but do it because you're going to go for 2 twice. The whole "it's better to know you're down 9 than be down 8 so you can manage the clock" thing that I find stupid.

 

[HungryLion]

If that's your mindset, what's the difference when you go for two?

Right.


At most one could argue that it doesn’t matter when you go for two. There really isn’t an argument that going for two early was the wrong call

 

[G2]

The previous 28 pages say "hello"

Quite astounding.

 

[TWOK11]

Thats the most ridiculous assertion I’ve ever heard. You’d rather be down 2 possessions than 1.

You simply don’t understand, I’d rather take an unknown variable out of the equation.

Down 15, you need either two or three scores depending depending on whether you convert the two point try after one of the scores. When you go for two has no impact on the likelihood that you will convert it, however going for it after the first score does allow you to know whether you’ll need that third possession or not at a time when you may be able to do something about it.

 

[streetcredit]

It’s the basis of analytics

My question is What is the statistical theory that was used in the decision making?

 

[Diehardblues]

You simply don’t understand, I’d rather take an unknown variable out of the equation.

Down 15, you need either two or three scores depending depending on whether you convert the two point try after one of the scores. When you go for two has no impact on the likelihood that you will convert it, however going for it after the first score does allow you to know whether you’ll need that third possession or not at a time when you may be able to do something about it.

I understand but I don’t agree. I believe only being down 1 score is a better scenario.

 

[TWOK11]

I understand but I don’t agree. I believe only being down 1 score is a better scenario.

But it’s not a matter of opinion, it’s a fact. You can do the math to prove it.

 

[Diehardblues]

No. That’s not the only way it makes sense. You have to go for two at some point or another. There is 0 advantage to waiting to go for two. The odds of getting the two are the same whether you go for it now or after the next TD

I believe by waiting the momentum is greater for you to convert on 2nd TD.

Plus if you the miss the first one then your down scores. You are taking away the opportunity to tie on next TD needing 2 more possessions.

If you miss then it’s still the same scenario as being down 2 scores.

 

[HungryLion]

I believe by waiting the momentum is greater for you to convert on 2nd TD.

Plus if you the miss the first one then your down scores. You are taking away the opportunity to tie on next TD needing 2 more possessions.

If you miss then it’s still the same scenario as being down 2 scores.

Right “you believe” which means it’s more of a “feel for the game” argument as opposed to one or the other being definitively right or wrong.

which to me means we can’t really blame McCarthy for feeling the other option is better.


There’s room to argue the psychology of the two scenarios and which is better for the team mentally.

but from an actual factor of making the team more or less likely to win. Going for 2 first actually helps the team have a slightly higher chance of winning.

 

[G2]

Just think, if Jason Garrett was still HC, a fair amount of fans would be pissing and moaning (me included) that we wasted all of our timeouts, gave the opposing team plenty of time to score more points on our already beaten up & exhausted defense, ran 3 similar running plays in a row - not taking time off the clock, bend but don't break etc........


I for one am at least entertained by a HC that will go for the win instead of being predictably conservative.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

I wouldn’t even care about this call if we didn’t already see complete failures on 2 fake punts and a 4th down conversion in 2 games. Coaching hasn’t been smart. And these calls will kill them more often than not. I’m all for showing confidence, but you also have to know when to take the points and play field position. They got lucky this time..

Well the call for the fake punt with Jones passing was a very good play. But a terrible pass, however, if Jones had missed the throw every time in practice, I seriously doubt they'd have tried it.

However, in Dallas' SB win over Denver, the halfback pass by Newhouse was a perfect pass. But he said they had tried it in practice several times, and never completed it. But they still tried it.

Wasn't a difficult pass, I think Jones got so excited seeing the play was working that he just overthrew to ball into the ground. I saw the same type of throw many times when my sons played youth football, there were few passes thrown by quarterbacks, when they got the opportunity to make a throw it was very often a throw into the ground, didn't let go of the ball soon enough, hence the downward trajectory. So I have no problem with the call, in fact I'm glad to see it, Landry did "trick" plays on occasion, it keeps defenses guessing...

 

[Diehardblues]

But it’s not a matter of opinion, it’s a fact. You can do the math to prove it.

Show me the math.

 

[Big_D]

But it’s not a matter of opinion, it’s a fact. You can do the math to prove it.

lol it’s not a fact. Many coaches have kicked the EP in that situation more often than going for 2.

Well the call for the fake punt with Jones passing was a very good play. But a terrible pass, however, if Jones had missed the throw every time in practice, I seriously doubt they'd have tried it.

However, in Dallas' SB win over Denver, the halfback pass by Newhouse was a perfect pass. But he said they had tried it in practice several times, and never completed it. But they still tried it.

Wasn't a difficult pass, I think Jones got so excited seeing the play was working that he just overthrew to ball into the ground. I saw the same type of throw many times when my sons played youth football, there were few passes thrown by quarterbacks, when they got the opportunity to make a throw it was very often a throw into the ground, didn't let go of the ball soon enough, hence the downward trajectory. So I have no problem with the call, in fact I'm glad to see it, Landry did "trick" plays on occasion, it keeps defenses guessing...

on occasion! Thats the key phrase. Not one stupid decision after another. The Jones throw didn’t work, move on. Not run another fake on 4th and 5. It was a ridiculous call. So was going for it on 4th down last week. Cost them the game. Stupid decisions have been adding up in just 2 weeks. Again I’m all for trick plays and confidence boosters, but I want to see smart coaching on top of that and I haven’t seen it yet.

 

[Diehardblues]

Right “you believe” which means it’s more of a “feel for the game” argument as opposed to one or the other being definitively right or wrong.

which to me means we can’t really blame McCarthy for feeling the other option is better.


There’s room to argue the psychology of the two scenarios and which is better for the team mentally.

but from an actual factor of making the team more or less likely to win. Going for 2 first actually helps the team have a slightly higher chance of winning.

I can’t agree with that . Leaving yourself down 2 scores instead of 1 can’t increase your chance of winning.

If it does I’d like to see that statistical proof where teams down 9 points instead of 8 have a greater chance of extending the game.

Id argue it comes down to playing to win instead of the tie. Arguably what he did last week going for it in 4th and 3.

Which goes against the odds . It’s not sound football. Fans might enjoy the risk factor as they always want to go for it but it’s not smart football.

It’s riverboat gambling. You’re welcome to enjoy that but it’s fundamentally dumb and will ultimately cost us more games.

 

[Diehardblues]

Is this why we brought in a proven Super Bowl winning HC to be a riverboat gambler? This is absurd.

Jerry could have done this himself from the booth. Oh wait..

 

[G2]

Well the call for the fake punt with Jones passing was a very good play. But a terrible pass, however, if Jones had missed the throw every time in practice, I seriously doubt they'd have tried it.

However, in Dallas' SB win over Denver, the halfback pass by Newhouse was a perfect pass. But he said they had tried it in practice several times, and never completed it. But they still tried it.

Wasn't a difficult pass, I think Jones got so excited seeing the play was working that he just overthrew to ball into the ground. I saw the same type of throw many times when my sons played youth football, there were few passes thrown by quarterbacks, when they got the opportunity to make a throw it was very often a throw into the ground, didn't let go of the ball soon enough, hence the downward trajectory. So I have no problem with the call, in fact I'm glad to see it, Landry did "trick" plays on occasion, it keeps defenses guessing...

I actually think it was catchable.