MM explains his thought process of going for 2

[Haimerej]

I specifically said I wanted cash this time. Man, your wife can't hear anything when her head's under the covers!

Pretty sure I told you to keep her, too.

 

[Haimerej]

I thought he should have kicked the extra point. I think having an 8pt lead would have put more pressure on ATL versus a 9 point lead. But in the end if you don't get the 2pt conversion you're still kicking an onside kick.

That's why I don't get the whole clock argument. You need that 2 pointer at some point and you shouldn't just bank on getting it.

 

[conner01]

It makes it a one possession game assuming that you can make a 2 point conversion on the next TD. I don't understand why this part seems to be missing from the conversation. There is no scenario where we don't have to make 2 point conversion.

I get that
But your odds of converting don’t change
You have the same odds of converting the first or the second
I believe they are about 50/50 of converting
But to score twice required and almost always would require the onside kick
The odds of converting an onside kick are extremely low

 

[Runwildboys]

We already scored 6 -- so the score when the decision was made was 30-39.

Okay, I see what happened. My understanding was that the chart is meant to be read before the TD is scored. If not, then okay, my bad.

 

[Runwildboys]

I get that
But your odds of converting don’t change
You have the same odds of converting the first or the second
I believe they are about 50/50 of converting
But to score twice required and almost always would require the onside kick
The odds of converting an onside kick are extremely low

Yes, and they're higher when you have time to actually attempt one, which probably doesn't happen if you're counting on tying the score with a 2 pointer that would send you into OT.

Now suppose you actually we're to make the 2 pointer in that instance. The score is tied. Do you try an onside kick or count on this defense not allowing the Falcons to score in OT?

 

[Runwildboys]

Pretty sure I told you to keep her, too.

Sorry, you must've said that while her head was under the covers.

 

[Runwildboys]

That's why I don't get the whole clock argument. You need that 2 pointer at some point and you shouldn't just bank on getting it.

Which is what you'd be doing by waiting for a second TD to go for it, IMO.

 

[conner01]

Yes, and they're higher when you have time to actually attempt one, which probably doesn't happen if you're counting on tying the score with a 2 pointer that would send you into OT.

Now suppose you actually we're to make the 2 pointer in that instance. The score is tied. Do you try an onside kick or count on this defense not allowing the Falcons to score in OT?

Good question
The odds of converting an onside kick are so low I don’t think you risk it in overtime
And the fact with today’s rules you only have to stop a TD to keep the game going I think you kick off and defend

 

[Haimerej]

Sorry, you must've said that while her head was under the covers.

I thought it was pretty clear. Don't try to tell me she was distracting you because I know better.

 

[droopdog7]

You just want to argue with someone. Next time pick someone who disagrees with you.



Making it makes the path to victory just as clear, too. That's a meaningless point.



Your loss.

Sigh. Double sigh. Triple sigh.

 

[pansophy]

I get that
But your odds of converting don’t change
You have the same odds of converting the first or the second
I believe they are about 50/50 of converting
But to score twice required and almost always would require the onside kick
The odds of converting an onside kick are extremely low

But you are arguing exactly for why you go for 2 early. The odds are the same regardless of when you go for two, so you do it first in order to know what you are up against. We needed a miracle to win regardless of when we go for two -- but missing early means we know we need to hurry to score again and try to get a FG somehow. What's the clock management like if we hold off on making that decision?

 

[droopdog7]

I thought he should have kicked the extra point. I think having an 8pt lead would have put more pressure on ATL versus a 9 point lead. But in the end if you don't get the 2pt conversion you're still kicking an onside kick.

And I my point is that you might want less pressure on them.

 

[Haimerej]

Which is what you'd be doing by waiting for a second TD to go for it, IMO.

Which is why you shouldn't run the clock down before getting that second TD, if you kick the FG on the first try.

 

[droopdog7]

You're talking to one of the most intelligent posters I've ever met or communicated with. His disagreeing with our opinion doesn't change that.

That's cool. I'm smarter than the average cat too.

 

[Runwildboys]

Good question
The odds of converting an onside kick are so low I don’t think you risk it in overtime
And the fact with today’s rules you only have to stop a TD to keep the game going I think you kick off and defend

The onside kick would be an attempt to avoid OT. I think you knew that but just misspoke.

Holding the Falcons to a FG (assuming they got the first possession) still means you have to score at least a FG on your possession. I don't have that much confidence in this team yet.

 

[Haimerej]

Sigh. Double sigh. Triple sigh.

Is this where I point out you're doing what you accused me of doing? Seems like it.

 

[droopdog7]

You just want to argue with someone. Next time pick someone who disagrees with you.



Making it makes the path to victory just as clear, too. That's a meaningless point.



Your loss.

Okay, cool. You think it doesn't matter whether you go for two on the first or second td. I've seen little argument to suggest otherwise but I guess.

 

[Runwildboys]

That's cool. I'm smarter than the average cat too.

I'm not implying otherwise, brother. Just letting you know that if you think Haimarej isn't intelligent, you're reading him wrong. He's also a very fair minded guy...One of my favorite posters, to be honest. You'll like him, if you don't try not to.

 

[Haimerej]

Okay, cool. You think it doesn't matter whether you go for two on the first or second td. I've seen little argument to suggest otherwise but I guess.

Correct. I take issue with the notion that clock management comes into play in either scenario. Make it, miss it, kick the FG- you're still down by another TD and the opposing team has another possession.

 

[Runwildboys]

Which is why you shouldn't run the clock down before getting that second TD, if you kick the FG on the first try.

I agree, you shouldn't, but I think most teams do. Regardless, the sense of urgency will be lessened, so while they may not consciously run the clock, they'll probably use more time by virtue of not hurrying.