Mo Claiborne and the AV math

[dwmyers]

Was just looking at average AV values and players, and how good Mo would have to be for this trade to break even..

AV average pick 06: 39
AV average pick 14: 29
AV average pick 45: 25
sum of 14 and 45 : 54

Note: the AV data are rough, not smoothed. I suspect 45 would be smaller on a fitted curve.

The easy conclusion is that if Mo Claiborne plays as well as a typical 54 AV player, we've broken even on the trade.

It's ironic that Terance Newman has accumulated 56 AV to this point.

Yes, it's a gamble, but if it pays off and we get a good player (say a 70-90 AV player) or strike it rich and get a perennial Pro Bowler, then yes, we did the right thing.

D-

 

[YosemiteSam]

First and foremost. Quality over quantity.

You can't pay for a new car with pennies even though they can be equal to the same value of a hand full of $100 bills.

You don't need some statistical value to judge a winning situation. You need a playmaker. (ie, 10 Marcus Spears != 1 DeMarcus Ware) The Cowboys got one providing he can make it translate. The odds in you drafting two players that will amount to more game turning situations than Claiborne could produce is small.

 

[Longboysfan]

And your only paying one player. CAP friendly for 4 years.

 

[jterrell]

I am going to man up and go out on that limb that says Claiborne has a career that at least equals TNew.


I know, I know: I am a brave man....

:laugh2:

I know a lot of people loved DeCastro but the difference is this.
If Claiborne makes the Pro Bowl as a rookie Dallas is definitely going to the playoffs.

 

[speedkilz88]

If Mo isn't a perennial pro bowler than the apocalypse really is upon us. He has all the tools and is a ball magnet which tends to get those votes.

 

[YosemiteSam]

I am going to man up and go out on that limb that says Claiborne has a career that at least equals TNew + a lot more INTs.

Fixed.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Was just looking at average AV values and players, and how good Mo would have to be for this trade to break even..

AV average pick 06: 39
AV average pick 14: 29
AV average pick 45: 25
sum of 14 and 45 : 54

Note: the AV data are rough, not smoothed. I suspect 45 would be smaller on a fitted curve.

The easy conclusion is that if Mo Claiborne plays as well as a typical 54 AV player, we've broken even on the trade.

It's ironic that Terance Newman has accumulated 56 AV to this point.

Yes, it's a gamble, but if it pays off and we get a good player (say a 70-90 AV player) or strike it rich and get a perennial Pro Bowler, then yes, we did the right thing.

D-

Except that it's 29 + 25 vs. 39 + a free roster spot. Whatever you can get out of the guy you plug into that free roster spot counts, too.