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Mocking the Cowboys Draft: Three Weeks To Go
by One.Cool.Customer on Apr 3, 2010 5:15 PM CDT 10 comments
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2010/4/3/1402857/mocking-the-cowboys-draft-three#storyjump
Three more weeks to go, and it's time to face some hard facts: As a predictor of which players are going to which teams, mock drafts aren't particularly accurate.
Mock drafts can still be fun though, and the ones that come from analysts who know their stuff can still give us a general sense for where a player fits on the draft boards. But as an indicator of exactly which player goes to which team, they're not very accurate.
All it takes is for one team to mix it up - that includes trading up/down - and the rest of the mock is thrown off.
To paraphrase Dan Patrick from Si.com, there also some other reasons why these mocks may be inherently inaccurate:
•Half are put together by draftniks who watched two Notre Dame games at a sports bar and the second half of the B.C.S. National Championship Game and who wouldn't recognize Ndamukong Suh if they were stuck in an elevator with him.
•Among the chief sources of information for these mock drafts: NFL general managers, who are lying, and agents, who are lying even more.
•An even bigger source of information: other people's mock drafts. This is how everyone ends up in certain agreement that Bruce Campbell will be taken by Oakland in the 8th spot.
Regardless, mock drafts are fun because they focus attention on players or positions that we can sit around and endlessly talk about. Because that's what we do, especially in the offseason.
This week we look at the players we think received a first round grade from the Cowboys, and which of these might still be available with the 27th pick. Enjoy.
25 first round grades
Raf pointed out that the Cowboys have assigned 25 first round grades on this year's board. Arguably, this is the list of players with a first round grade:
QB: Bradford, Clausen
RB: Spiller
WR: Bryant
OL: Okung, Bulaga, Williams, Davis, Iupati, Pouncey
DL: Pierre-Paul, Morgan, Graham, McCoy, Suh, Williams, Odrick
LB: Kindle, McClain, Weatherspoon
CB: Haden, Wilson
S: Berry, Thomas, Mays
Below is a table from 20 different mock sites showing the draft spots they project for these 25 players. The totals on the right show:
A) Avg: The average draft position for each player according to the 20 mocks. Where no position was given, I used the 35th spot to calculate the average. Where a spot lower than 40 was given, I used 40 to calculate the average, as I have a hard time believing that any of these 25 prospects would fall that low, barring unforeseen circumstances.
B) In Reach: Number of mocks that see a player "within reach" of the Cowboys, i.e. available by pick 27 or later.
Click on the image to enlarge
The Curious Case of Bruce Campbell
Bruce Campbell is one of the most notable absentees from from the Cowboys' 25 first rounders list, but I've included him in the table anyway, simply because opinions are split pretty widely on him.
In a strange twist to this year's draft, it appears that Bruce Campbell’s outstanding Combine performance has actually hurt his draft stock. Widely considered a top prospect just a few months back, he is now being labeled a 'workout warrior' and many draftniks have dropped him faster than a hot potato. Most of the remaining draftniks automatically assume that that type of combine performance will get you drafted by the Raiders in the 8th spot. Go figure.
Would you take Campbell if he was still available in 27th or would you trade down?
With the 27th pick, the Dallas Cowboys choose...
The good news: For what it's worth, there isn't a single mock that does not have at least one of the 25 first round rated players fall to Dallas in the 27th spot. Eight of the mocks have tow out of the 25 players falling to at least the 27th spot, eleven mocks have three or more players still available at 27th.
Out of the 20 mocks, OC Pouncey and DE Odrick are available for the Cowboys with the 27th pick nine times. OLB Weatherspoon (8), CB Wilson (7), OLB Kindle (6), S Mays (5) and OG Iupati (5) round off the half dozen players that may slip within reach of the 27th spot.
Dallas Cowboys Mock Draft overview (min. three rounds deep, new picks highlighted in bold)
Source last updated
1st Round 2nd Round 3rd Round 4th Round
6th Round 7th Round
Draft Zoo
4/3/2010 Taylor Mays, S, USC
Vlad Ducasse, OG, UMass
Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson
NE Patriots Draft
4/2/2010 Vladimir Ducasse, OT, Massachusetts
Morgan Burnett, S, Georgia Tech
Austen Lane, DE, Murray St.
Chris Marinelli, OT, Stanford
Drafttek
3/30/2010 Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
Nate Allen, S, USF
Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson
Phillip Dillard, ILB, Nebraska
Tony Washington, OT, Abilene C.
John Fletcher, DE, Wyoming
Draftsite
3/30/2010 Maurkice Pouncey, OG/C, Florida
Corey Wooton, DE Northwestern
Donald Butler, LB, Washington
Selvish Capers, OT W. Virginia
Brody Eldrige, TE Oklahoma
Leigh Tiffin, K, Alabama
Football Draft Analysis
3/30/2010 Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan
Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson
Walter Football
3/30/2010 Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
Chad Jones, S, LSU
Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
MockingtheDraft
3/29/2010 Jared Odrick, DE/DT, Penn State
Vladimir Ducasse, OT, Massachusetts
Major Wright, S, Florida
Jerome Murphy, CB, South Florida
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, SMU
Hunter Lawrence, K, Texas
New Sport Draft
3/29/2010 Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
Georgie Selvie, DE, South Florida
Darryl Sharpton, LB - Miami Hurricanes
Austen Lane, DE - Murray State
Draft Ace
3/28/2010 Taylor Mays, S, USC
Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson
Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
by One.Cool.Customer on Apr 3, 2010 5:15 PM CDT 10 comments
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2010/4/3/1402857/mocking-the-cowboys-draft-three#storyjump
Three more weeks to go, and it's time to face some hard facts: As a predictor of which players are going to which teams, mock drafts aren't particularly accurate.
Mock drafts can still be fun though, and the ones that come from analysts who know their stuff can still give us a general sense for where a player fits on the draft boards. But as an indicator of exactly which player goes to which team, they're not very accurate.
All it takes is for one team to mix it up - that includes trading up/down - and the rest of the mock is thrown off.
To paraphrase Dan Patrick from Si.com, there also some other reasons why these mocks may be inherently inaccurate:
•Half are put together by draftniks who watched two Notre Dame games at a sports bar and the second half of the B.C.S. National Championship Game and who wouldn't recognize Ndamukong Suh if they were stuck in an elevator with him.
•Among the chief sources of information for these mock drafts: NFL general managers, who are lying, and agents, who are lying even more.
•An even bigger source of information: other people's mock drafts. This is how everyone ends up in certain agreement that Bruce Campbell will be taken by Oakland in the 8th spot.
Regardless, mock drafts are fun because they focus attention on players or positions that we can sit around and endlessly talk about. Because that's what we do, especially in the offseason.
This week we look at the players we think received a first round grade from the Cowboys, and which of these might still be available with the 27th pick. Enjoy.
25 first round grades
Raf pointed out that the Cowboys have assigned 25 first round grades on this year's board. Arguably, this is the list of players with a first round grade:
QB: Bradford, Clausen
RB: Spiller
WR: Bryant
OL: Okung, Bulaga, Williams, Davis, Iupati, Pouncey
DL: Pierre-Paul, Morgan, Graham, McCoy, Suh, Williams, Odrick
LB: Kindle, McClain, Weatherspoon
CB: Haden, Wilson
S: Berry, Thomas, Mays
Below is a table from 20 different mock sites showing the draft spots they project for these 25 players. The totals on the right show:
A) Avg: The average draft position for each player according to the 20 mocks. Where no position was given, I used the 35th spot to calculate the average. Where a spot lower than 40 was given, I used 40 to calculate the average, as I have a hard time believing that any of these 25 prospects would fall that low, barring unforeseen circumstances.
B) In Reach: Number of mocks that see a player "within reach" of the Cowboys, i.e. available by pick 27 or later.
Click on the image to enlarge
The Curious Case of Bruce Campbell
Bruce Campbell is one of the most notable absentees from from the Cowboys' 25 first rounders list, but I've included him in the table anyway, simply because opinions are split pretty widely on him.
In a strange twist to this year's draft, it appears that Bruce Campbell’s outstanding Combine performance has actually hurt his draft stock. Widely considered a top prospect just a few months back, he is now being labeled a 'workout warrior' and many draftniks have dropped him faster than a hot potato. Most of the remaining draftniks automatically assume that that type of combine performance will get you drafted by the Raiders in the 8th spot. Go figure.
Would you take Campbell if he was still available in 27th or would you trade down?
With the 27th pick, the Dallas Cowboys choose...
The good news: For what it's worth, there isn't a single mock that does not have at least one of the 25 first round rated players fall to Dallas in the 27th spot. Eight of the mocks have tow out of the 25 players falling to at least the 27th spot, eleven mocks have three or more players still available at 27th.
Out of the 20 mocks, OC Pouncey and DE Odrick are available for the Cowboys with the 27th pick nine times. OLB Weatherspoon (8), CB Wilson (7), OLB Kindle (6), S Mays (5) and OG Iupati (5) round off the half dozen players that may slip within reach of the 27th spot.
Dallas Cowboys Mock Draft overview (min. three rounds deep, new picks highlighted in bold)
Source last updated
1st Round 2nd Round 3rd Round 4th Round
6th Round 7th Round
Draft Zoo
4/3/2010 Taylor Mays, S, USC
Vlad Ducasse, OG, UMass
Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson
NE Patriots Draft
4/2/2010 Vladimir Ducasse, OT, Massachusetts
Morgan Burnett, S, Georgia Tech
Austen Lane, DE, Murray St.
Chris Marinelli, OT, Stanford
Drafttek
3/30/2010 Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
Nate Allen, S, USF
Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson
Phillip Dillard, ILB, Nebraska
Tony Washington, OT, Abilene C.
John Fletcher, DE, Wyoming
Draftsite
3/30/2010 Maurkice Pouncey, OG/C, Florida
Corey Wooton, DE Northwestern
Donald Butler, LB, Washington
Selvish Capers, OT W. Virginia
Brody Eldrige, TE Oklahoma
Leigh Tiffin, K, Alabama
Football Draft Analysis
3/30/2010 Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan
Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson
Walter Football
3/30/2010 Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
Chad Jones, S, LSU
Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
MockingtheDraft
3/29/2010 Jared Odrick, DE/DT, Penn State
Vladimir Ducasse, OT, Massachusetts
Major Wright, S, Florida
Jerome Murphy, CB, South Florida
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, SMU
Hunter Lawrence, K, Texas
New Sport Draft
3/29/2010 Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
Georgie Selvie, DE, South Florida
Darryl Sharpton, LB - Miami Hurricanes
Austen Lane, DE - Murray State
Draft Ace
3/28/2010 Taylor Mays, S, USC
Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson
Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
DAL @ GB
