Mocking the first 17: Nightmare Scenario

hra8700

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My methodology: I reviewed zero tape. I relied on the following resources, in order:

1. Which teams interviewed which players. I spent hours looking to see both which positions teams focused on and also around which general draft slot were players interviewed. I also looked at team needs, but didn't make this a huge factor, as long as there was some need for the team, I went BPA all the way down the board (which is, I think, how all NFL teams do it)

2. Quotes from scouts and personnel men. For instance, when I hear this in Dan Pompei's positional guide about Cordarelle Patterson: '"He is one of the best playmakers to come out the last few years," an NFC director of college[URL="http://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png"] [/URL] scouting said.' and this about tavon austin: '"He is soooo small," one high-ranking AFC executive said. Another college scouting director said, "I think he'll overcome his lack of size. He's a great player, a little like Steve Smith."', I start thinking that NFL teams care a lot more about size than draftniks.

3. The only draft people I pay attention to are former NFL scouts and executives, generaly in order of when they were last with a team. In order, I listen to: Bruce Kebric, Bill Polian, Daniel Jeremiah, and Bryan Broaddus. I pay by far the most attention to Kebric, and I listen to all of Greg Cosell's stuff too, but weigh it a little lower (he knows his stuff, but his idea of which traits are valuable seems to be different than NFL teams).


So, here it is:

  1. KC: Luke Joeckel
  2. JAC: Eric Fischer
  3. OAK: Sharif Floyd
  4. PHI: Dee Milliner
  5. DET: Dion Jordan
  6. CLE: Barkevious Mingo
  7. AZI: Lane Johnson
  8. BUF: Jarvis Jones
  9. NYJ: Star Lotuleli
  10. TEN: Jonathan Cooper
  11. SD: Ezekial Ansah
  12. MIA: Sheldon Richardson
  13. NYJ: Cordellle Patterson
  14. CAR: DJ Fluker
  15. NO: Kenny Vaccaro
  16. SL: Chance Warmack
  17. PIT: Eddie Lacy
That leaves us Tavon Austin and Tyler Eifert...everyone's nightmare scenario! I don't really mind taking either, we need one more receiving threat outside of Austin, Dez, and Witten, and both provide enough positional versatility that it could allow us to play almost exclusive 2 tight end (New England) or 3 wide (Green Bay).

Let me know what you think!
 

honyock

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I know there is a lot of Austin love here, but I'd take Sly Williams in this scenario.
 

BrAinPaiNt

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Although we need help at OL and DL or S...Having Austin sitting there in our lap at 18 is in NO WAY a nightmare scenario to me.

We either get on the phone and get teams to trade up for him or we take him.

No nightmare scenario to me at all...in some ways I would say it is a dream scenario as it is a player (players if you add Eiffert) that other would probably be willing to trade up for and if not we get a player I looooove.
 

visionary

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options in order

1. trade down
2. sylvester williams
3. bjoern werner
4. datone jones'
5. tyler eifert
 

DFWJC

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hra8700;5055102 said:
That leaves us Tavon Austin and Tyler Eifert...everyone's nightmare scenario! !
Sly Williams?

Anyway, Austin and Eifert are really good players. If Dallas doesn't want them, somebody for sure will.


Anyway, thanks for the effort.

I suspect at least one team will take a QB, there's a chance > 1 CB will go in the top 17, and a decent chance Jarvis Jones gets taken (though that would just most liekly trade out Lacy for Jones).
 

Rack

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hra8700;5055102 said:
My methodology: I reviewed zero tape. I relied on the following resources, in order:

1. Which teams interviewed which players. I spent hours looking to see both which positions teams focused on and also around which general draft slot were players interviewed. I also looked at team needs, but didn't make this a huge factor, as long as there was some need for the team, I went BPA all the way down the board (which is, I think, how all NFL teams do it)

2. Quotes from scouts and personnel men. For instance, when I hear this in Dan Pompei's positional guide about Cordarelle Patterson: '"He is one of the best playmakers to come out the last few years," an NFC director of college[URL="http://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png"] [/URL] scouting said.' and this about tavon austin: '"He is soooo small," one high-ranking AFC executive said. Another college scouting director said, "I think he'll overcome his lack of size. He's a great player, a little like Steve Smith."', I start thinking that NFL teams care a lot more about size than draftniks.

3. The only draft people I pay attention to are former NFL scouts and executives, generaly in order of when they were last with a team. In order, I listen to: Bruce Kebric, Bill Polian, Daniel Jeremiah, and Bryan Broaddus. I pay by far the most attention to Kebric, and I listen to all of Greg Cosell's stuff too, but weigh it a little lower (he knows his stuff, but his idea of which traits are valuable seems to be different than NFL teams).


So, here it is:

  1. KC: Luke Joeckel
  2. JAC: Eric Fischer
  3. OAK: Sharif Floyd
  4. PHI: Dee Milliner
  5. DET: Dion Jordan
  6. CLE: Barkevious Mingo
  7. AZI: Lane Johnson
  8. BUF: Jarvis Jones
  9. NYJ: Star Lotuleli
  10. TEN: Jonathan Cooper
  11. SD: Ezekial Ansah
  12. MIA: Sheldon Richardson
  13. NYJ: Cordellle Patterson
  14. CAR: DJ Fluker
  15. NO: Kenny Vaccaro
  16. SL: Chance Warmack
  17. PIT: Eddie Lacy
That leaves us Tavon Austin and Tyler Eifert...everyone's nightmare scenario! I don't really mind taking either, we need one more receiving threat outside of Austin, Dez, and Witten, and both provide enough positional versatility that it could allow us to play almost exclusive 2 tight end (New England) or 3 wide (Green Bay).

Let me know what you think!

If that's how the first 17 went down (it would suck, royally) then we'd have to either take Sly or Austin.

JMO
 

TheRomoSexual

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Nightmare? Not at all. You listen to all the desparate trade offers, and if none blow your skirt up, you take by far the best playmaker in the draft.
 

Future

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TheRomoSexual;5055158 said:
Nightmare? Not at all. You listen to all the desparate trade offers, and if none blow your skirt up, you take by far the best playmaker in the draft.
Agreed. Though it would suck to miss out on some of those guys (Cooper, Warmack, Richardson), you could either get a great playmaker that adds a bunch of flexibility to the offense or move down and add a pick or two. Its not all bad if this were the case.
 

tm1119

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We could easily trade down to 22 or 23 with St Louis or Minny who would probably be chomping at the bit to move up and get Austin. I would have no problem at all if we took Austin, but I also really like the idea of getting Sly Williams + an extra 3rd round pick.
 

fishspill

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TheRomoSexual;5055158 said:
Nightmare? Not at all. You listen to all the desparate trade offers, and if none blow your skirt up, you take by far the best playmaker in the draft.

Yep. The only nightmare scenario is Dallas picking a dud in Round 1. One really good player will be there.
 

TheCount

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Other than the fact that this "Nightmare Scenario" is clearly geared towards forcing us to draft a WR or TE, which I suspect isn't all that much of a nightmare to the OP, there are still a number of options here.

Austin, sure. Drafting a TE would be plain dumb. However, if you think that at 18, we wouldn't be getting calls about Geno, then think again. Xavier Rhodes is still on the board, and for all the people saying BPA, BPA, what if BPA is another corner? Rhodes is 6'2", experienced, instinctive and physical. The prototypical Tempa 2 CB.

Sylvester Williams is also still in play and trading up is always a possibility. NO would love an extra 3rd rounder since the lost a 2nd rounder.
 

visionary

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TheRomoSexual;5055158 said:
Nightmare? Not at all. You listen to all the desparate trade offers, and if none blow your skirt up, you take by far the best playmaker in the draft.

Cordarelle Patterson already got picked at 13
 

TheRomoSexual

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visionary;5055257 said:
Cordarelle Patterson already got picked at 13

Patterson is not half of the playermaker Austin is. Literally. Austin had 12 receiving TDs in 2012, whereas Patterson had 5. 1300 receiving yards vs. 778. 643 rushing yards v. 308. Patterson is bumped by for his size, not because he's some crazy playmaker.
 

visionary

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TheRomoSexual;5055263 said:
Patterson is not half of the playermaker Austin is. Literally. Austin had 12 receiving TDs in 2012, whereas Patterson had 5. 1300 receiving yards vs. 778. 643 rushing yards v. 308. Patterson is bumped by for his size, not because he's some crazy playmaker.

OK, so you are talking about Austin as the best playmaker in the draft

so why did 17 other teams pass on him if he is BPA at all positions?
 

TheRomoSexual

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visionary;5055270 said:
OK, so you are talking about Austin as the best playmaker in the draft

so why did 17 other teams pass on him if he is BPA at all positions?

No offense, but I have no idea what you are talking about. Everyone else understood who i was referring to. Why did 17 skip him in this hypothetical? I don't know, talk to the OP. I have him around 15 on my board (though he is a top 10 talent) and he is the best player left.
 

RastaRocket

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If there is not a single QB getting drafted until after 18 the world will promptly end.
 

hra8700

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TheRomoSexual;5055278 said:
No offense, but I have no idea what you are talking about. Everyone else understood who i was referring to. Why did 17 skip him in this hypothetical? I don't know, talk to the OP. I have him around 15 on my board (though he is a top 10 talent) and he is the best player left.

I have them taking Lacy because they met with 5 running backs, including the top 4 main running back prospects (Lacy, both Bells, Jonathan Franklin), and have a major need at running back.

In contrast, they met with 5 receivers, but they were all lower tier players (Josh Boyce, Justin Brown, Anthony Capasso, Tavarres King, Robert Woods). If they didn't work out a SINGLE first round quality receiver, I think it is fairly unlikely that they would choose one, especially since it is not unreasonable to mock austin at 17, given the 49ers, Bengals, Ravens, and Rams all worked him out.

RastaRocket;5055284 said:
If there is not a single QB getting drafted until after 18 the world will promptly end.

Don't think it's at all unreasonable. Look at 2010. Sam Bradford was an elite prospect, but then after him the next qb taken was Tebow at 25 (huge reach), and then the next one was Jimmy Clausen at 48. If Sam Bradford came out the year before, no way there would be a qb taken before 18.
 
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