Modified Elam Ending, applied to NFL

[_sturt_]

So, in other words... putting it into context given the real history that has once again prompted all the talk about changing the OT rule for the 23rd time...

- BUF goes up on KC 29-26 with 1:54 left, sending the game into immediate OT.

- BUF kicks off to KC as the 10:00 OT period begins, and whichever team scores 39 points first wins... or if not, whichever team is winning at the end of OT.

- The two teams are 36-36 about 6 min into OT, when KC breaks the 39 point target score mark, winning the game.

(In reality, the game probably finishes earlier, since both teams likely score more quickly, given the new kickoff parameters.)

 

[Flamma]

BUF goes up on KC 29-26 with 1:54 left, sending the game into immediate OT.

I'm not getting this part. Is that 1:54 left in regulation?

 

[Risen Star]

Sounds really, really dumb.

How about we just play a 5th quarter and everyone shuts the hell up?

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

I hate changes. Leave things be.

 

[_sturt_]

I'm not getting this part. Is that 1:54 left in regulation?

Yep.

Sounds really, really dumb.

Not a stretch to say the model turns out to be really well-received. Not a stretch to say, for any timed sports event, some version of the model is worth serious consideration.

 

[Flamma]

Yep.

Ok, now I understand the after 4 minutes bullet point. Although there are some good aspects, they're never going to totally reform OT. Not like that. Even though it's not a terrible idea, it's just too far off the norm to be acceptable.

 

[_sturt_]

never

That would be the precise point of disagreement.

Whole lot changes once NBA adopts it for their overtimes, right?

Wouldn't be surprised if it turns out there's some consideration for the next CBA (either 2023 or 2024)--sounds like both front offices and players are feeling positive about it.

I don't think the NFL is shy to innovate in the way that NBA and especially MLB have been, so once that domino would fall, it would be the next natural conversation.

But because this issue has been percolating in the NFL as it has been, it's even plausible that it surfaces ahead of any NBA action.

Mind you, this is just one version of the model... could take some different final form, but with the core idea driving that final form.

 

[Flamma]

That would be the precise point of disagreement.

Whole lot changes once NBA adopts it for their overtimes, right?

Wouldn't be surprised if it turns out there's some consideration for the next CBA (either 2023 or 2024)--sounds like both front offices and players are feeling positive about it.

I don't think the NFL is shy to innovate in the way that NBA and especially MLB have been, so once that domino would fall, it would be the next natural conversation.

But because this issue has been percolating in the NFL as it has been, it's even plausible that it surfaces ahead of any NBA action.

Mind you, this is just one version of the model... could take some different final form, but with the core idea driving that final form.

The new CBA is in 2030 I believe. But even if they do change rules for OT, the NFL is too conservative for that kind of change right away. They would first choose a more conservative approach IMO. And no, I do not believe the NBA would have any influence on what the NFL does. Hell, college football doesn't, why would basketball?

 

[_sturt_]

1. https://www.nba.com/news/nba-and-nbpa-ratify-new-collective-bargaining-agreement

2. You're welcome to your opinion, of course.

But I would point to the facts that... (a) the NFL has virtually eliminated one of its historical constants to the overall game in the last 5-10 years (the kickoff), and that (b) they're apparently seriously considering incorporating the 4th-and-25 option (a fairly substantial evolution) as a remedy to the loss of the onside kick as a pragmatic option for teams...as evidence that the NFL has less aversion than other sports to change. And (c), of the three major sports, the NFL is the only one that, in any given season, can be counted on to tinker with its rules at all. So, no, I cannot agree at all that the NFL is conservative, given that context.

I would also suggest that the NFL and NBA face a common problem, and that intelligent people do not hesitate to recognize how they might borrow ideas from each other.

I would also suggest that you have the 2-point conversion today in the NFL mostly as a consequence that it was recognized how it added something good to the college game.

Good ideas are good ideas, and bad ideas are bad ideas.

The NFL has been trying a flurry of different ideas for years now within the current parameters. People clearly aren't satisfied. Just logically, time to reconsider the parameters. An Elam Ending approach is a good idea. Again, it could take a different specific form than laid out above, but the key elements are stout... it's a viable remedy.

 

[Flamma]

I thought you meant the NFL CBA.

The rule changes to the kickoff was not to improve the game, but with player injuries in mind. The 4th and 25 option is considered to fix what they broke in the new kickoff rules. Like a patch.

Do you think the 2 point play was an improvement? I don't hate it, I don't love it. It's good that it can keep teams in games they would otherwise be out of, but the con is that it promotes going for more FGs over TDs.

Either way, I do not believe the NFL will go that drastic for OT rules. I'm not saying this because I think it's a bad idea. I actually like it. I don't consider it a gimmick like college OT. I'm just saying it would be seen as a radical change. I don't think they'll do that.

 

[_sturt_]

Fair enough @Flamma .

 

[terra]

Should have never changed it in the first place. Its like the catch rule; just keeps getting worse and worse.

 

[John813]

Meh. Play the full 60 minutes.
Then if it goes to OT then I don't care what dumb rules they propose.

 

[Flamma]

They could also make it that the home team receives the kickoff in all overtime games. This way no one can whine about the coin toss. It's just an advantage of playing at home.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

How many games this year had a tie or lead change within 4 minutes? OT should be a rare event to decide who wins in a game where one team couldn’t outscore the other in regulation. If OT is happening all the time every week, it begins to defeat the purpose.

So if the game is tied 21-21 at the 4 minute mark, it’s guaranteed overtime no matter what happens? Stafford throws a bomb, 28-21. Kyler Murray come back out and throws a pick 6 to Jalen Ramsey, 35-21. Next possession, Aaron Donald strip sack, Rams offense quickly traverses the short field and scores, 42-21. It’s a complete blowout, but Overtime is necessary and we have to sit through 10 more minutes of the rams practice squad running the ball over and over and over. It sounds incredibly poorly conceived.

 

[Flamma]

How many games this year had a tie or lead change within 4 minutes? OT should be a rare event to decide who wins in a game where one team couldn’t outscore the other in regulation. If OT is happening all the time every week, it begins to defeat the purpose.

So if the game is tied 21-21 at the 4 minute mark, it’s guaranteed overtime no matter what happens? Stafford throws a bomb, 28-21. Kyler Murray come back out and throws a pick 6 to Jalen Ramsey, 35-21. Next possession, Aaron Donald strip sack, Rams offense quickly traverses the short field and scores, 42-21. It’s a complete blowout, but Overtime is necessary and we have to sit through 10 more minutes of the rams practice squad running the ball over and over and over. It sounds incredibly poorly conceived.

I could be wrong, but I think in a case like that the Rams win at the end of regulation.