Monte Carlo Draft Simulation: Part 2

[Montanalo]

Prior to the combine, I posted a thread predicting the probability who might be available for the Cowboy's selections in rounds 1-3 using a Monte Carlo simulator and a composite ranking of the top 100 prospects.

I re-ran the simulation using the most up-to-date composite ranking and included, in no particular order, a draft priority of OG, LB, Safety, DT and WR. I added on additional twist - a "value" criteria based upon which players are likely to start immediately.

Without further ado, I offer the following:

1. James Daniels OC/OG
2. Harrison Phillips DT
3. E St Brown WR
4a Jordan Whitehead FS
4b Darius Leonard LB

Again, the simulation predicts the most likely prospect for each round. It is not necessarily what I would do, or what I think the Cowboys will do. It is just a bit of draft mathematics to stimulate conversation.

Comments??

 

[Teague31]

I’d take it

 

[Gaede]

That's actually pretty good!

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Like it except for the lineman in the 1st round.

 

[beware_d-ware]

That would be a pretty nice haul. Don't like Phillips in the second, but stealing St. Brown in the 3rd makes up for it.

 

[rkell87]

I hate that draft

 

[xwalker]

Prior to the combine, I posted a thread predicting the probability who might be available for the Cowboy's selections in rounds 1-3 using a Monte Carlo simulator and a composite ranking of the top 100 prospects.

I re-ran the simulation using the most up-to-date composite ranking and included, in no particular order, a draft priority of OG, LB, Safety, DT and WR. I added on additional twist - a "value" criteria based upon which players are likely to start immediately.

Without further ado, I offer the following:

1. James Daniels OC/OG
2. Harrison Phillips DT
3. E St Brown WR
4a Jordan Whitehead FS
4b Darius Leonard LB

Again, the simulation predicts the most likely prospect for each round. It is not necessarily what I would do, or what I think the Cowboys will do. It is just a bit of draft mathematics to stimulate conversation.

Comments??

It might be the inverse of the following (Yours is a microscopic analysis of something that was measured with a very crude instrument).

"Measure it with a micrometer,
mark it with a chalk,
cut it with an axe."

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Prior to the combine, I posted a thread predicting the probability who might be available for the Cowboy's selections in rounds 1-3 using a Monte Carlo simulator and a composite ranking of the top 100 prospects.

I re-ran the simulation using the most up-to-date composite ranking and included, in no particular order, a draft priority of OG, LB, Safety, DT and WR. I added on additional twist - a "value" criteria based upon which players are likely to start immediately.

Without further ado, I offer the following:

1. James Daniels OC/OG
2. Harrison Phillips DT
3. E St Brown WR
4a Jordan Whitehead FS
4b Darius Leonard LB

Again, the simulation predicts the most likely prospect for each round. It is not necessarily what I would do, or what I think the Cowboys will do. It is just a bit of draft mathematics to stimulate conversation.

Comments??

I would be happy with this. I think I would want Hernandez over Daniels but still a day 1 starter

 

[Machete]

I'd recommend you apply a Kalman Filter to further refine the selections.

 

[dwmyers]

You can get a four round draft out of 100 prospects? I think you would need a lot more than that. There are 100 picks in the first three rounds alone.

D-

 

[Rayman70]

ewwwwwwww. Hate it. Daniels is a much better center than a guard..thats way too high...bad fit and a reach. Philips...not terrible..I wonder if that's a tad too high for him.Brown will be a boom or bust candidate...Whitehead is decent..but is he better than what we have on the current roster? I am not sold.Leonard I do like..and he may be the one guy in this simulation you did that becomes an all pro pretty fast. Good value with him. But as a group...I would give this bunch of dogs a C- GRADE. Not because they are bad players..but because where they were drafted and bad scheme fit. Dallas can do better than this group.