Monte Carlo Simulation and the 2019 Draft

[Montanalo]

As a lead up to last year's draft, I used a Monte Carlo simulator to understand better the probability of certain players being available for each round. I posted the results in a series of posts during January - March

If you're not familiar with Monte Carlo simulation, it is a mathematical algorithm used to model the probability of different outcomes in the face of uncertainty. It is used quite extensively in the fields of finance and engineering.

Other than the fact I was snowed-in when i crafted the MC simulation, my intent was to predict the talent available for each of Dallas's draft picks. It was not my intention to predict who the Cowboys would draft.

Below is an extract from my January 2018 post:

Using the most recent Bleacher Report for prospect ranking and individual team priorities, I ran a 1000 simulations to arrive at the following:

1. Round 1 -- DT had the highest probability of selection, followed by LB, and then OT. WR was pretty far down the list. The most commonly selected DT was Christian Wilkins followed closely by Maurice Hurst and Vita Vea
2. Round 2 and 3 -- I grouped these two rounds together as there was a fairly even distribution between three positions: OT, WR and TE. In order, Deon Cain, Simmie Cobbs and DJ Clark were the top WR's selected in these rounds. TE was interesting with Mark Andrews, Troy Fumugali and Hayden Hurst
3. Round 4 and 5 -- Almost regardless the team priorities, the mid-rounds were dominated by defensive positions LB, CB and DT, followed by OG

Now, on to the 2019 draft. Using the most recent Bleacher Report as well as their ranking of team needs, the BPA in rounds 2-4 shakes out as follows:

Round 2 - There is a 75% probability (P75) that a WR is the best player available at the Cowboy's pick, followed closely by DT and, to a much less extent, Safety
Round 3 - fairly equal probability of a CB or Safety as BPA followed by TE
Round 4 - P75 that RB is BPA, followed by LB and TE.

What does it all mean... not much other than a means to entertain me on another snow day.

 

[Flamma]

Round 2 - There is a 75% probability (P75) that a WR is the best player available at the Cowboy's pick, followed closely by DT and, to a much less extent, Safety

The mock draft simulator I'm running is finding a similar trend with Defensive lineman. I noticed in just about every draft several good DT/DE would fall to 58. Some good WRs and S as well. Just not as good. For the 3rd round the best available would be WR and TE.

What I've noticed is if I pick a DT/DE with the first pick at 58 then chances are I'll get another decent player at 90. That would be maximizing the draft as far as ranked players.