Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Hawkeye0202, Feb 10, 2019.
then again...... what does it mean? Either way, it's odd....
Mathematical odds ...hundreds of udfa every year, argueably thousands
....vrs 100 each year in those 3 rounds
Interesting...though I wonder how much of this is because of difference in salaries.
money trumps draft.
Step 1 - Trade all of our picks for no picks.
Step 2 - Championship.
It is like the statistic that an overwhelming percentage of deaths from auto accidents happen with X miles of the persons residence.
They leave out the fact that most people are in that X miles radius the vast majority of the time.
There are over 1000 draft eligible players.
There are less than 300 total players drafted.
That leaves way more players not drafted than players drafted in rounds 4-7.
The other way to look at it is to look at the total number of UDFAs on the 90 man rosters each year compared to players drafted 4-7. It's probably about 4 to 1 (udfa to 4-7 picks).
This ought to be pretty intuitive. You get 7 draft picks and bring in 15+ UDFAs every year. Not all the lower-tier draft picks are going to stick, some get replaced in the lineup by UDFAs. 3-4 make the team as specialists or STs guys.
Note, this is also taken from week 17 active rosters, so you're going to have some injury replacements off the street inflating those numbers a bit.
Understand but the bottom number of 551 undrafted that are IN THE LEAGUE vs the drafted number 4-7.
The nfl loves it’s story’s
Players in round 6 or 7 are also usually graded out around the same as a lot of UDFA’s. It’s really just about what player you prioritize and want to make sure you retain their rights with the limited number of picks you have.
Good point. The Cowboys have publicly said they have passed on higher rated players on their board they thought were more likely to get to UDFA than players they’d taken in the 7th round.
But those injury replacements could just as well be 4th-7th rounders. Your first point is right on though.
Another I'd like to bring up is a lot of guys who go undrafted weren't scouted properly... or at all. Generally, a guy taken in the fifth round was scouted on par with a guy taken in the third, he was simply deemed not as good. However, a lot of UDFA's are guys from division I-AA and II who 'looked good'. You don't exactly send your Alabama scout team to Incarnate Word, but you might invite their players into minicamp to see what they got. Mis-scouted players generally will end up as UDFAs, whereas guys in the 6 and 7th are ones you know probably won't last long.
They could be, though there are a lot fewer of those guys than there are UDFAs (fewer to start with and they stay on rosters at a higher rate). And teams tend to take players back late in the season who are already familiar with their systems.
Exactly. The draft has a ton of gamesmanship between the different teams, and them trying to know which team is targeting what players to get the edge on each other and figure out how late they can still acquire a player. The teams are trying to get guys they are targeting while paying the least amount possible for them. That aspect of the draft takes place in the late rounds and UDFA just as much as it does the first round.
There are some years where very few players drafted in rounds 4-7 even make the team.
And there's simply very little difference between a player drafted in rounds 6-7 and a UFA. They're generally the same quality player.