Most important games this week and playoff possibilities

[jobberone]

The Cowboys carry a 10 game win streak into Thursday's night game at Min.

A win tomorrow night coupled with either:

1. A Buc's loss or tie at San Diego
OR
2. A Was loss at AZ

clinches a playoff spot for the Cowboys

Here are the most important games this week:

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-30%20at%204.15.27%20PM_zpszvfh2naa.png

The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. How they assign a number is not apparent to me. The entire East is on the chart above.

 

[Doomsday101]

If Cowboys win this next game and the game vs NY the following week I would say Dallas will have clinched without help from anyone.

 

[jobberone]

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-30%20at%205.01.32%20PM_zpsuho1sxjp.png

As you can see, right now, the Skins and Giants are in decent position to be the 5 or 6 seed. It'll be interesting to see what the odds are if we lose and NY wins this week.

 

[EST_1986]

If Cowboys win this next game and the game vs NY the following week I would say Dallas will have clinched without help from anyone.

especially if the Giants drop the game this weekend too

 

[jobberone]

If Cowboys win this next game and the game vs NY the following week I would say Dallas will have clinched without help from anyone.

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/Cowboys/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-30%20at%205.12.19%20PM_zpsajitphga.png

The green numbers mean a team can clinch that seed without help. We currently have no red numbers. We'd have to lose the next two to open the door for the Seahawks or Giants.

 

[Reality]

These numbers are way off and whatever formula they created to generate them is extremely flawed.

First off, this is not a must-win game for the Cowboys. It would be nice if they won because it helps them with their conference win/loss record. Even if the Cowboys lose this game, they are still in complete control their playoff destiny for home-field advantage. The only reason this game could be considered "important" is if they lose against the Giants next week or lose a couple remaining games to other teams, but that's a future issue that should never play into the importance of "now". This game is no more important than the Buccaneers game for example. In fact, technically, since the Buccaneers game is in Dallas, that would actually be considered a more important game from the standpoint that home games give you an advantage so a loss would waste it.

As for the Vikings, while it is not a must-win for the Vikings, it is very close to being one. Their schedule gets easier for them after the Cowboys game so they could lose this game and still end up in the playoffs by winning a wild card spot. The Vikings lost both games to the Lions this season, which means they are technically two games behind the Lions with 5 to go. As such, winning the division is a long shot for them at this point. That means they are chasing a wild card spot. While a loss would hurt them, it would not end their season.

Do you want to know who has an important game this week? The Giants. They really need to beat the Steelers because losing that game and beating the Cowboys next week would still keep them needing the Cowboys to lose +1 more game than they do the last three games. On the other side of that game is the Steelers, who really need to win the game against the Giants because a loss would possibly put them a game behind the Ravens for the division lead (and they also trail in the first three tie-breakers against the Ravens) and would also put them at risk of being behind 3 other teams for the wild card.

So basically, the most important game this weekend should be the Giants-vs-Steelers game.

I love statistics and I use statistical probability almost every day, but when it comes to most of these so-called "expert" statistical sites, I have become very cynical because their logic is so obviously flawed.

 

[cowboys1981]

Beat NY and we're rolling. Not trying to overlook Minny, but I can't help but think of SNF!!

 

[jobberone]

They aren't must wins nor claim to be. That's not the purpose of that one chart. They are important relative speaking and I have no idea, as I stated, how they determine quantitative number for it. It's not even important whom thinks who is most important AFAIC. The games will play out but it's fun to look.

A Min win or loss affects them as well as the Packers and Lions as well as possible WCs although I didn't look at those ramifications.....I don't care.

A Cowboys win or loss affects all the contending teams for the NFCE as well as those conference teams fighting for seedings. Many more teams involved.

If the Giants win this week and we lose the NYG/Dal game will grow in importance.

Nothing to do with any games being a must win.

 

[jobberone]

Beat NY and we're rolling. Not trying to overlook Minny, but I can't help but think of SNF!!

We don't have to beat Min. But if we lose and the Giants beat the Steelers then we must win against NYG to remain in control of our destiny.

 

[LittleLexodus]

We don't have to beat Min. But if we lose and the Giants beat the Steelers then we must win against NYG to remain in control of our destiny.

An interesting chart for sure, I wonder how the Bears/49ers has any significance? They aren't both eliminated yet

 

[Playmaker247]

There's no way giants go to heinz field and beat the steelers

 

[Reality]

We don't have to beat Min. But if we lose and the Giants beat the Steelers then we must win against NYG to remain in control of our destiny.

Since the Giants are two games behind us and need help from us via a loss to the Vikings, plus they have to beat the Steelers, that makes their game a LOT more "important" than the Dallas-Vikings game, as I said.

 

[jazzcat22]

All I know is in my opinion and to me...we need to beat the Vikings and the Steelers need to beat the Giants.

If this happens I feel so much better for another week.

 

[StarBoyz83]

especially if the Giants drop the game this weekend too

They will lose

 

[jobberone]

Since the Giants are two games behind us and need help from us via a loss to the Vikings, plus they have to beat the Steelers, that makes their game a LOT more "important" than the Dallas-Vikings game, as I said.

Ok. I don't see how the Giants game is more important than the Cowboys game. They both need to win. Their game will be more important I guess after we finish our game.

 

[Reality]

They aren't must wins nor claim to be. That's not the purpose of that one chart. They are important relative speaking and I have no idea, as I stated, how they determine quantitative number for it. It's not even important whom thinks who is most important AFAIC. The games will play out but it's fun to look.

My use of "must win" was to avoid using "important" over and over.

A Cowboys win or loss affects all the contending teams for the NFCE as well as those conference teams fighting for seedings. Many more teams involved.

Actually, this is wrong. It's not a Cowboys win or loss that has "importance" but rather a Vikings' win or loss that does. Ignoring the Vikings side/impact in the playoff race for a moment, no team out there accomplishes, clinches, etc. anything from a Cowboys win or loss. The Giants are helped a little by a Cowboys loss, but if they lose the Cowboys next week, the Vikings game basically means little to them as they will more likely be fighting for the top wild card spot.

And that's my point. When assigning importance ratings/values to something, you are saying that in this snapshot of time, that "thing" is important right now. The Cowboys-Vikings game has no immediate impact on any of the current (aka: NOW) teams in the playoff picture. If the Giants/Commanders win out, they will take both of the wild card spots and possibly the division. If either wins the division, the Cowboys would end up with a wild card spot. A Vikings win this week gains them nothing, and only a loss really affects them or anyone else.

Cowboys-vs-Vikings

• Cowboys win? They are still 2 or more games up on the Giants for the division and the #1 NFC seed.
• Cowboys lose? They are still 1 or more games up on the Giants for the division and the #1 NFC seed.
• Vikings win? They are still outside-looking-in for a wild card spot without help from other teams.
• Vikings lose? They are still outside-looking-in for a wild card spot without help from other teams.

Giants-vs-Steelers

• Giants win? They are still 1-2 games behind the Cowboys for the division and the #5 NFC seed.
• Giants lose? They are still 2-3 games behind the Cowboys for the division and the #5 NFC seed.
• Steelers win? They are still tied with the Ravens but in second place in the division due to losing to the Ravens earlier this season and they are not in the playoffs; or they are 1 game ahead of the Ravens and the #4 AFC seed.
• Steelers lose? They are either 1 game behind the Ravens or tied with the Ravens for the division and not in the playoffs due to losing to the Ravens earlier this season.

That's my point about statistics. It is very obvious whoever designed that site really has no clue about statistics and instead simply created a random importance formula based on something simple like, "number of teams affected eventually by win/loss" and that became the basis of their ratings, which I place on the same level as assigning importance ratings based on team colors.

You cannot calculate an importance rating for a single game using possible future results in that equation. Once you do that, you are not assigning an importance rating for a single game (now), but rather a series of games (time).

In 3-4 weeks, the Vikings game may be very important to the Cowboys. However, right now, this single game has very little importance on the rest of their season.

 

[jobberone]

***snip***

You cannot calculate an importance rating for a single game using possible future results in that equation. Once you do that, you are not assigning an importance rating for a single game (now), but rather a series of games (time).

In 3-4 weeks, the Vikings game may be very important to the Cowboys. However, right now, this single game has very little importance on the rest of their season.

The effects of the game trickle thru the rest of the season and thruout the league albeit primarily the East and then the NFC as well as having an immediate impact. That is its reason to be

I personally think they should rank the games in relative importance without assigning an arbitrary number. It IS objective though.

You can have the final word.

 

[jobberone]

An interesting chart for sure, I wonder how the Bears/49ers has any significance? They aren't both eliminated yet

I don't use it with any illusion the numbers at the far right mean anything. I like to look before the games come to monitor the ones I see affecting the Boys now and possibly later.

 

[Longboysfan]

I would have thought that the more important games would be the teams with less of a chance of making the playoffs.

Not the reverse.

Cowboys have breathing room of at least one full game for number 1 seed.

 

[BourbonBalz]

If we beat Minnesota tonight (and I believe we will) and the Steelers beat the Giants this weekend (and I believe they will), we will pretty much have the East sewn up. A three game lead with 4 to play is very extremely difficult to overcome, especially considering the Giants have a tough schedule the rest of the way. I know we could still lose the division, but the chances are very slim that we lose it under these circumstances.