Most QB turnovers in a 1-score game over the past three years

Hawkeye0202

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Interesting....All 4 are franchise QBs. I'm not sure what this means, trying to do too much, lack of playmakers, folding under pressure or coaching/play calling.


 

Reality

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Interesting....All 4 are franchise QBs. I'm not sure what this means, trying to do too much, lack of playmakers, folding under pressure or coaching/play calling.



The problem with stats like these as they are misleading because they are drawing from a smaller pool of players than you expect.

I am in no way defending Dak's interceptions, especially from last year because it's ridiculous that he led the league in that category despite missing 5 games.

But stats like these are misleading because franchise quarterbacks who have been a "starting" quarterback in the NFL for full seasons (minus injuries) for 3+ years would have a higher chance of leading this comparison.

For a better overall comparison, it would be better to use the "interceptions-per-attempt" stat with a minimum amount of attempts per year required.

I won't be surprised if Dak is still one of the leaders in that category, but it will be interesting to see how "franchise" quarterbacks overall rank in a more accurate comparison like that.

If you want to compare 1-score games, again, that further narrows the pool because what about teams who played more bad teams or teams who played ON bad teams as the quarterbacks on those teams would be unlikely to see many 1-score games despite how well or badly they played.

Of course there are other factors as well such as what if your team fumbles the ball 5 times in a game yet the quarterback leads the team back to a 1-score win or loss?

On the other side, what if a quarterback throws few interceptions but tends to fumble a lot?

I love stats and I am all for comparisons, especially when they reveal realistic comparisons between players, but I think it is important to make sure the stats being used are a valid comparison method especially when attempting to prove or disprove a point.
 
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Strykerscm

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The problem with stats like these as they are misleading because they are drawing from a smaller pool of players than you expect.

I am in no way defending Dak's interceptions, especially from last year because it's ridiculous that he led the league in that category despite missing 5 games.

But stats like these are misleading because franchise quarterbacks who have been a "starting" quarterback in the NFL for full seasons (minus injuries) for 3+ years would have a higher chance of leading this comparison.

For a better overall comparison, it would be better to use the "interceptions-per-attempt" stat with a minimum amount of attempts per year required.

I won't be surprised if Dak is still one of the leaders in that category, but it will be interesting to see how "franchise" quarterbacks overall rank in a more accurate comparison like that.

If you want to compare 1-score games, again, that further narrows the pool because what about teams who played more bad teams or teams who played ON bad teams as the quarterbacks on those teams would be unlikely to see many 1-score games despite how well or badly they played.
Great point.
 

McKDaddy

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Trying to reduce the game to stats has reached pandemic level silliness.

Watching each player & the situations they faced is the only way to really evaluate how they handled it.
 

Reality

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Trying to reduce the game to stats has reached pandemic level silliness.

Watching each player & the situations they faced is the only way to really evaluate how they handled it.
I am waiting for the astrological comparisons :D
 

Kevinicus

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Weird take away from RG3 there. The teams with the higher winning percentage in those games, were the two with the highest rates of turnovers (Allen, Dak). At least amongst those 4.
I'd bet that Carr and Herbert are on that list, simply because of being involved in a lot more one score games.
 

CouchCoach

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Interesting....All 4 are franchise QBs. I'm not sure what this means, trying to do too much, lack of playmakers, folding under pressure or coaching/play calling.



Stats do not tell the whole story but there is one lie these 4 share in as well as most of the other QB's and their coaches, "we're going to take what the defense gives us".

Remember Romo using that line? Just what the hell do they think the DC/defense is going to give them? Hell, they don't even believe it and get frustrated when they're play callers even play that game and they end up "trying to make a play that goes awry".

I've seen that from Allen, Carr, Herbert, Lawrence more than Prescott. He made some bad decisions last season and the situation that he'd had since he came into the league reversed on him, it was now the defense carrying the team and he felt pressured to make plays.

Mahomes does this as much as any of these other QB's, he just has this unique sense on the field I have never seen in another QB. Reid knows that most of the time he will make the defense wish they'd done something else.

Ball protection is the single most underrated attribute of the position and the reason Prescott was the wow factor in his rookie season was that one thing. Rookie QB plays 16 games and throws only 4 picks? However, look back on what his number one priority was in 2016, ball protection....don't screw it up.

He is far removed from that wide-eyed don't make a mistake QB to what he is now, a QB expected to play at the same level as the elite because he's getting paid like it.
 

Aerolithe_Lion

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Weird take away from RG3 there. The teams with the higher winning percentage in those games, were the two with the highest rates of turnovers (Allen, Dak). At least amongst those 4.
I'd bet that Carr and Herbert are on that list, simply because of being involved in a lot more one score games.
I think he’s making the point that in general, all 4 should have higher winning %’s in those games than hovering around .500
 

Kevinicus

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I actually have no idea where these numbers are coming from.
Assuming they are talking the actual last 3 seasons (2020 - 2022) and not the last 50 games (16, 17, 17) then they are way off.

I have Dak at 23 in 16 games (1.4 per game).
I have Allen at 24 in 20 games (1.2 per game).

Didn't bother to check the other two, but I'd guess they're off too.

This is based on Pro Football Reference gamelogs.
 

Kevinicus

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I think he’s making the point that in general, all 4 should have higher winning %’s in those games than hovering around .500
It wouldn't be a very good point since he is using a gross number (which appears to be wrong) to compare to a rate (W/L %).
Comparing the rate (TO/Game) to another rate (W/L%) would be apt here.
 

IslandCowboy

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They are all chokers and ultimately losers. I think Josh is a great talent, but he can't get the Bills over the hump. Out of the 4 he has the best chance to do it someday as he learns.
 

SteveTheCowboy

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Trying to reduce the game to stats has reached pandemic level silliness.

Watching each player & the situations they faced is the only way to really evaluate how they handled it.
Careful....the "experts" here are gonna scorch you about this "eye test" thing.
 

SteveTheCowboy

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Stats do not tell the whole story but there is one lie these 4 share in as well as most of the other QB's and their coaches, "we're going to take what the defense gives us".

Remember Romo using that line? Just what the hell do they think the DC/defense is going to give them? Hell, they don't even believe it and get frustrated when they're play callers even play that game and they end up "trying to make a play that goes awry".

I've seen that from Allen, Carr, Herbert, Lawrence more than Prescott. He made some bad decisions last season and the situation that he'd had since he came into the league reversed on him, it was now the defense carrying the team and he felt pressured to make plays.

Mahomes does this as much as any of these other QB's, he just has this unique sense on the field I have never seen in another QB. Reid knows that most of the time he will make the defense wish they'd done something else.

Ball protection is the single most underrated attribute of the position and the reason Prescott was the wow factor in his rookie season was that one thing. Rookie QB plays 16 games and throws only 4 picks? However, look back on what his number one priority was in 2016, ball protection....don't screw it up.

He is far removed from that wide-eyed don't make a mistake QB to what he is now, a QB expected to play at the same level as the elite because he's getting paid like it.
"Ball protection"? By handing off to zeke.
 

nalam

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Stats do not tell the whole story but there is one lie these 4 share in as well as most of the other QB's and their coaches, "we're going to take what the defense gives us".

Remember Romo using that line? Just what the hell do they think the DC/defense is going to give them? Hell, they don't even believe it and get frustrated when they're play callers even play that game and they end up "trying to make a play that goes awry".

I've seen that from Allen, Carr, Herbert, Lawrence more than Prescott. He made some bad decisions last season and the situation that he'd had since he came into the league reversed on him, it was now the defense carrying the team and he felt pressured to make plays.

Mahomes does this as much as any of these other QB's, he just has this unique sense on the field I have never seen in another QB. Reid knows that most of the time he will make the defense wish they'd done something else.

Ball protection is the single most underrated attribute of the position and the reason Prescott was the wow factor in his rookie season was that one thing. Rookie QB plays 16 games and throws only 4 picks? However, look back on what his number one priority was in 2016, ball protection....don't screw it up.

He is far removed from that wide-eyed don't make a mistake QB to what he is now, a QB expected to play at the same level as the elite because he's getting paid like it.
I agree on Dak , his initial years were not screwing up and so avoid Ints at all cost , use his legs to create when nothing else available, then he got a bit Comfortable but that Tyron injury and musical chairs at LT game killed him. ( he probably still has nightmares with that Atlanta DE)

So in essence people expect him to perform as he is paid ( Elite QB) but that is not happening. He needs good OL , good running game plus decent def which doesn’t give up lead all the time to perform .
 
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