TwoDeep3 said:Please site for me an immutable source which has defined this draft as being deep enough to trade down and still assure the trading team a player that will be as good as the one they passsed on.
TwoDeep3 said:The notion of trading down makes no sense to me. Players are slotted by league scouts in regard to the talent they possess or exhibit via college games and workouts designed to showcase their professional potential.
As some have pointed out, this is a crap shoot and players fail at every spot in the draft, at times.
Value seems to be another label put on the idea of trading down.
We can get a better "value" if we move from here to there and pick up an extra selection.
While this is an absurd example, do you believe the Steelers made out better for trading down in 1990 for extra picks that brought us Emmitt Smith?
From a History of the Vikings website:
"On April 22, 1990 (draft day), Dallas traded Minnesota's 1st pick in 1990 and SF 3rd pick in 1990 to Pittsburgh for Pitt's 1st round pick (#21 and #81 for #17) and selected RB Emmitt Smith. With the #21 pick, Pittsburgh selected TE Eric Green."
http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/players.nsf/ID/07130070
Green played five years for the Steelers.
The other Steeler pick from Dallas was the Craig Veasey, a defensive tackle.
http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/players.nsf/ID/07160181
He played two years for the Steelers.
We moved up several slots and the Steelers gained a third rounder for the privilege of letting us select the all-time rushing leader.
Now you may dig deep and come up with a scenario that is the polar oppisite of this example.
I admit this is an extreme case which illustrate my point.
But the principle is clear. If there are no guarantees at the top of the draft. Then what does that say for moving down into a more hazy area where talent is even more difficult to identify?
Busts are labeled as such because they do not play up to pre-draft perceived potential.
But think on this for a moment. How many players taken in the fourth round are called a bust?
Busts are such because they are not worth the slot where they were taken. The money paid did not buy the results desired.
But where is all the money spent in drafts? At the top where players are more readily designated busts.
There are far more players labeled bust in the first round than any other. Because the expectations are higher for this player than ones taken after him.
There are also more pro bowlers and all-pros taken in the first round over any other round, per capita.
Because the talent is at the top of the draft.
There are exceptions to every rule. And I believe there are times it is wise to move down.
We have only a few slots open for a rookie to gain the starter's position.
Why trade down to grab players who have a higher probability of being back-ups.
I think our window is this year. T.O. could erupt like Mount St. Helens next year if Jerry doesn't pony up more money.
This year we need a playmaker and not just a player with the addition of a special teamer as a bonus pick.
Keep this truth in mind. While some falsely say Jimmy Johnson moved down in drafts. You only need pick up a Dallas Cowboy media guide to see that this notion is bogus.
Jimmy moved up to build the championship teams.
I'm for staying at 18 unless a real stud starts to fall for some crazy reason.
Then I wouldn't be opposed to moving up to get a difference maker.
Just my opinion, of course.
TwoDeep3 said:I understand it. I don't agree with it.
Please help me here.
Two years into the league and exactly what milestones has Julius accomplished which make him an example of trading down is the wisest thing to do?
But can you say for sure that the trade was the absolute correct move for this franchise?
By the way. We did not get an extra first pick.
TwoDeep3 said:Please site for me an immutable source which has defined this draft as being deep enough to trade down and still assure the trading team a player that will be as good as the one they passsed on.
wayne_motley said:You shouldn't pass on a better player to move down for extra picks, but if the guy you have your eye on is going to be available later, or if a team offers you too much value, you have to move down.
TwoDeep3 said:Two years into the league and exactly what milestones has Julius accomplished which make him an example of trading down is the wisest thing to do?
TwoDeep3 said:The notion of trading down makes no sense to me. Players are slotted by league scouts in regard to the talent they possess or exhibit via college games and workouts designed to showcase their professional potential.
As some have pointed out, this is a crap shoot and players fail at every spot in the draft, at times.
Value seems to be another label put on the idea of trading down.
We can get a better "value" if we move from here to there and pick up an extra selection.
While this is an absurd example, do you believe the Steelers made out better for trading down in 1990 for extra picks that brought us Emmitt Smith?
From a History of the Vikings website:
"On April 22, 1990 (draft day), Dallas traded Minnesota's 1st pick in 1990 and SF 3rd pick in 1990 to Pittsburgh for Pitt's 1st round pick (#21 and #81 for #17) and selected RB Emmitt Smith. With the #21 pick, Pittsburgh selected TE Eric Green."
http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/players.nsf/ID/07130070
Green played five years for the Steelers.
The other Steeler pick from Dallas was the Craig Veasey, a defensive tackle.
http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/players.nsf/ID/07160181
He played two years for the Steelers.
We moved up several slots and the Steelers gained a third rounder for the privilege of letting us select the all-time rushing leader.
Now you may dig deep and come up with a scenario that is the polar oppisite of this example.
I admit this is an extreme case which illustrate my point.
But the principle is clear. If there are no guarantees at the top of the draft. Then what does that say for moving down into a more hazy area where talent is even more difficult to identify?
Busts are labeled as such because they do not play up to pre-draft perceived potential.
But think on this for a moment. How many players taken in the fourth round are called a bust?
Busts are such because they are not worth the slot where they were taken. The money paid did not buy the results desired.
But where is all the money spent in drafts? At the top where players are more readily designated busts.
There are far more players labeled bust in the first round than any other. Because the expectations are higher for this player than ones taken after him.
There are also more pro bowlers and all-pros taken in the first round over any other round, per capita.
Because the talent is at the top of the draft.
There are exceptions to every rule. And I believe there are times it is wise to move down.
We have only a few slots open for a rookie to gain the starter's position.
Why trade down to grab players who have a higher probability of being back-ups.
I think our window is this year. T.O. could erupt like Mount St. Helens next year if Jerry doesn't pony up more money.
This year we need a playmaker and not just a player with the addition of a special teamer as a bonus pick.
Keep this truth in mind. While some falsely say Jimmy Johnson moved down in drafts. You only need pick up a Dallas Cowboy media guide to see that this notion is bogus.
Jimmy moved up to build the championship teams.
I'm for staying at 18 unless a real stud starts to fall for some crazy reason.
Then I wouldn't be opposed to moving up to get a difference maker.
Just my opinion, of course.
Oh yeah there is such a thing as a bust. It isn't all on the coaching staffs. Sometimes players stick their heads up dark places and never remove them. In order to see where they're going they need a window in the stomach. Unfortunately the human body doesn't come with those so they wander around in the dark.kartr said:There's no such thing as a bust. Players fail because they weren't developed properly or the scouts mis-evaluated their ability
Example one: Kyle Boller - a first round qb who completed 49% of his passes for his collegiate career
Example two: Joey Harrington and David Carr - first round qb's who were one year wonders just as Akili Smith was
Example three: Ryan Leaf - left school as a junior and totaled only 3300 yards passing for his collegiate career
These players don't draft themselves, it's their scouts and coaches who are at fault.
Trading down makes plenty of sense if you know how to draft for value and you know talent. How often do Pittsburgh and the Pats have draft busts?
Not very often cause they draft don't draft poor character guys and guys with serious injuries like Burnette,Al Johnson and Jacob Rodgers and they get guys who can play in their system.
AdamJT13 said:A couple of years ago, two economists applied economic theories to the NFL draft and found that the most efficent draft choices (the "best value," based on the cost in terms of draft picks -- trading up or down using other picks -- and dollars paid to the player) were in the middle of the second round -- specifically around No. 43 overall. The performance of second-round players relative to their cost (in picks and dollars) was greater than that of first-round picks, whose cost was far more but whose average performance wasn't much more. And the risk of drafting a bust in the first round also was much greater, based on cost (not only don't those players perform, they also cost a lot).
So in the long run, teams would be better off trading down out of the first round -- unless, of course, they're SURE the guy they want is going to be an absolute stud. You know, like Courtney Brown, Tim Couch, Ki-Jana Carter, Bryant Westbrook, Steve Emtman, Eric Turner, Blair Thomas, Tony Mandarich, Aundray Bruce, etc.
TwoDeep3 said:The notion of trading down makes no sense to me. Players are slotted by league scouts in regard to the talent they possess or exhibit via college games and workouts designed to showcase their professional potential.
As some have pointed out, this is a crap shoot and players fail at every spot in the draft, at times.
Value seems to be another label put on the idea of trading down.
We can get a better "value" if we move from here to there and pick up an extra selection.
While this is an absurd example, do you believe the Steelers made out better for trading down in 1990 for extra picks that brought us Emmitt Smith?
From a History of the Vikings website:
"On April 22, 1990 (draft day), Dallas traded Minnesota's 1st pick in 1990 and SF 3rd pick in 1990 to Pittsburgh for Pitt's 1st round pick (#21 and #81 for #17) and selected RB Emmitt Smith. With the #21 pick, Pittsburgh selected TE Eric Green."
http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/players.nsf/ID/07130070
Green played five years for the Steelers.
The other Steeler pick from Dallas was the Craig Veasey, a defensive tackle.
http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/players.nsf/ID/07160181
He played two years for the Steelers.
We moved up several slots and the Steelers gained a third rounder for the privilege of letting us select the all-time rushing leader.
Now you may dig deep and come up with a scenario that is the polar oppisite of this example.
I admit this is an extreme case which illustrate my point.
But the principle is clear. If there are no guarantees at the top of the draft. Then what does that say for moving down into a more hazy area where talent is even more difficult to identify?
Busts are labeled as such because they do not play up to pre-draft perceived potential.
But think on this for a moment. How many players taken in the fourth round are called a bust?
Busts are such because they are not worth the slot where they were taken. The money paid did not buy the results desired.
But where is all the money spent in drafts? At the top where players are more readily designated busts.
There are far more players labeled bust in the first round than any other. Because the expectations are higher for this player than ones taken after him.
There are also more pro bowlers and all-pros taken in the first round over any other round, per capita.
Because the talent is at the top of the draft.
There are exceptions to every rule. And I believe there are times it is wise to move down.
We have only a few slots open for a rookie to gain the starter's position.
Why trade down to grab players who have a higher probability of being back-ups.
I think our window is this year. T.O. could erupt like Mount St. Helens next year if Jerry doesn't pony up more money.
This year we need a playmaker and not just a player with the addition of a special teamer as a bonus pick.
Keep this truth in mind. While some falsely say Jimmy Johnson moved down in drafts. You only need pick up a Dallas Cowboy media guide to see that this notion is bogus.
Jimmy moved up to build the championship teams.
I'm for staying at 18 unless a real stud starts to fall for some crazy reason.
Then I wouldn't be opposed to moving up to get a difference maker.
Just my opinion, of course.
kartr said:There's no such thing as a bust. Players fail because they weren't developed properly or the scouts mis-evaluated their ability
Example one: Kyle Boller - a first round qb who completed 49% of his passes for his collegiate career
Example two: Joey Harrington and David Carr - first round qb's who were one year wonders just as Akili Smith was
Example three: Ryan Leaf - left school as a junior and totaled only 3300 yards passing for his collegiate career
TwoDeep3 said:The notion of trading down makes no sense to me. Players are slotted by league scouts in regard to the talent they possess or exhibit via college games and workouts designed to showcase their professional potential.
As some have pointed out, this is a crap shoot and players fail at every spot in the draft, at times.
Value seems to be another label put on the idea of trading down.
We can get a better "value" if we move from here to there and pick up an extra selection.
While this is an absurd example, do you believe the Steelers made out better for trading down in 1990 for extra picks that brought us Emmitt Smith?
From a History of the Vikings website:
"On April 22, 1990 (draft day), Dallas traded Minnesota's 1st pick in 1990 and SF 3rd pick in 1990 to Pittsburgh for Pitt's 1st round pick (#21 and #81 for #17) and selected RB Emmitt Smith. With the #21 pick, Pittsburgh selected TE Eric Green."
http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/players.nsf/ID/07130070
Green played five years for the Steelers.
The other Steeler pick from Dallas was the Craig Veasey, a defensive tackle.
http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/players.nsf/ID/07160181
He played two years for the Steelers.
We moved up several slots and the Steelers gained a third rounder for the privilege of letting us select the all-time rushing leader.
Now you may dig deep and come up with a scenario that is the polar oppisite of this example.
I admit this is an extreme case which illustrate my point.
But the principle is clear. If there are no guarantees at the top of the draft. Then what does that say for moving down into a more hazy area where talent is even more difficult to identify?
Busts are labeled as such because they do not play up to pre-draft perceived potential.
But think on this for a moment. How many players taken in the fourth round are called a bust?
Busts are such because they are not worth the slot where they were taken. The money paid did not buy the results desired.
But where is all the money spent in drafts? At the top where players are more readily designated busts.
There are far more players labeled bust in the first round than any other. Because the expectations are higher for this player than ones taken after him.
There are also more pro bowlers and all-pros taken in the first round over any other round, per capita.
Because the talent is at the top of the draft.
There are exceptions to every rule. And I believe there are times it is wise to move down.
We have only a few slots open for a rookie to gain the starter's position.
Why trade down to grab players who have a higher probability of being back-ups.
I think our window is this year. T.O. could erupt like Mount St. Helens next year if Jerry doesn't pony up more money.
This year we need a playmaker and not just a player with the addition of a special teamer as a bonus pick.
Keep this truth in mind. While some falsely say Jimmy Johnson moved down in drafts. You only need pick up a Dallas Cowboy media guide to see that this notion is bogus.
Jimmy moved up to build the championship teams.
I'm for staying at 18 unless a real stud starts to fall for some crazy reason.
Then I wouldn't be opposed to moving up to get a difference maker.
Just my opinion, of course.
Rack said:Courtney Brown is actually a very good football player... when he's healthy. Problem is that happens about as often as Haley's Comet comes around.
Ki-Jana Carter's problems were injuries, not talent.
Steve Emtman, again, had injury problems. Which is messed up cuz he had no injury problems in college. He was a good DT before he got hurt. He certainly wasn't a bust cuz of a lack of talent.
I agree with you though, Adam. I just don't agree with some of the examples you used. You could of used many many much better examples. Mike Mamula would of been a good one.
He has played 61 career games and has 19 career sacks. He played 14 games last year and posted two sacks. He's hardly been a pass-rusher worthy of a No. 1 overall pick, even when he has been healthy.
So where do you get a crystal ball that tells you which guys' careers are going to be ruined by injuries?
That's part of the high cost of first-round picks. The chances of a player's career being ruined by injury is the same whether he's a first-rounder or a second-rounder, but the cost -- in picks and dollars -- is significantly greater when the first-rounder busts because of injury.