Aerolithe_Lion
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Everyone seems to be making 3 different threads giving their opinion on this subject, but I won't do that. I'll give you 1 single thread that puts a completely different spin on the subject, and you tell me why this is wrong.
Today, we will be comparing Dak to another QB on another team that is EERILY similar to Dallas's situation. Dak is QB A, other is QB B's first 3 years:
Total yards, Passing AND Rushing
Dak: 11820
QB B: 11815
If you factor in sack yards, QB B actually has more net yards gained. From a prolificness standpoint, both quarterbacks present nearly identical yardage-moving abilities. The close stats could mean either QB B does not run but is a deeper thrower, or QB B is not as much a thrower as Dak but he runs like the wind. Or option 3, he's very identical to Dak. Any way you slice it, they get the yards on equal terms.
Regular Season Record
Dak: 32-16
QB B: 30-18
Okay, some variation, but still impressively close. We would need to see the talent distribution on these teams and the coaching quality to really judge what this means, but the yardage stat implied that it makes sense this is similar.
Playoff Appearances
Dak: 2
QB B: 3
Thought I'd put this in here, because it is relevant. If Dak isn't winning Super Bowls or breaking your NFCCG streak, you can AT LEAST say he has division championships on his shelf. Well, so does this guy.
Am I just cherry picking stats that don't paint the whole picture? Well then let's try and paint it. Let's keep going!
Total Touchdowns, Rushing AND Passing
Dak: 85
QB B: 86
TD rate (%)
Dak: 4.5
QB B: 4.9
Huh. Everyone tells me 20 passing and 5 rushing every year is some kind of record, but in reality it's still only 25 tds. This guy is matching him blow for blow. You have Dak, or you have him. Or maybe he is Dak?
Total Interceptions and Fumbles
Dak: 50
QB B: 64
Here is some separation. Fumbles are a tricky stat because it's random where that ball will end up. Is Dak really to blame if he loses 80% of his fumbles, or should he really be credited if he only lost 10%? Putting the ball on the ground in the first place is the problem. Still though, Dak's INT rate has been swell, pulling him ahead. But then what exactly is that fumble rate which is allowing QB B to be within an earshot of Dak?
% of Dropbacks that Result in a Fumble
Dak: 1.8%
QB B: 0.9%
This is alarming. Twice as likely. This should indicate to you that QB B probably isn't a scrambling QB, but then if he's able to match Dak yard-for-yard, is the ballooning fumble chance worth the negligible difference in offensive output?
And here's the biggest variance I could find:
Sacks Taken
Dak: 113
QB B: 75
Holy Smokes! And Dallas has one of the best O-lines in decades. Yes, Frederick was out last year and Smith was in and out the year before, but this also includes your historically good 2016 O-line. So if Dak isn't taking too many unnecessary sacks, then the only other answer is that this other guy has an even BETTER historically good O-line.
Completion %
Dak: 66%
QB B: 61%
Here's the big one, Dak sweeps the leg. But hold on, is it good to preserve your completion % by taking the sack? That's 38 sacks QB B threw the ball away to avoid. Not ONLY was it a smarter play, but he also doesn't lose the yardage Dak did, making it worth much more than a simple preservation of that percentage. Let's figure this out analytically...
Yards Lost to Sacks
Dak: 675
QB B: 571
Hmm. 104 yards. What is Dak's yards per attempt? 7.4. So Dak lost over 14 completed passes in the additional sacks he took. So to show the value of the sacks in completions and yards thrown in order to put both QB on a similar level, you'd have to remove the sack by saying Dak threw the ball away, but then you'd also have to remove the sack yards from his completions. Not only does that put him below QB B in total yards accounted for, that's 14 completed passes he has to lose and 38 additional attempts that have to be added for throwaways. Now here's the the completion percentage from that:
Rudimentarily Adjusted Completion Percentage:
Dak: 63%
QB B: 61%
So is it worth taking sacks on third down, on your failed scramble attempts? Because Dak is a scrambling QB, is he trying to make something out of nothing and getting caught in the moment too much? 184 rushes to 113 sacks. You can blame the O-line, but it really is much harder to block for a mobile QB, because you don't know exactly where he is at any given time. Not saying being mobile is worse, but in this instance it does bring him down closer to our comparison.
QB B, if you haven't guessed by now, is not someone who'd garner anything near Dak's contract demands. Andrew Dalton did not have Ezekiel Elliot his first three years in the league. He did not have defenses stacking 8 in the box on early downs, 7 in the box on third and medium.
The Bengals had a good O-line in the early 2010's anchored by Andrew Whitworth, but it was not what you have/had. In fact, Dallas has had vastly superior talent overall. For every Whitworth there is a Zack Martin AND a Tyron Smith. For every AJ Green there's an Ezekiel Elliot, a Travis Frederick, and some of an Amari Cooper. I can assure you they did not have 8 players on the NFL top 100 while Dalton was on his rookie contract.
No one here should claim Marvin Lewis is a superior coach to Jason Garrett, that excuse wouldn't work. Marvin Lewis has zero playoff wins in 14 years in Cincy. Jason might get fired because 4 straight playoff seasons just isn't enough. Lewis got fired because his last playoff appearance WAS 4 years ago.
Yes, I know what you're thinking, there are other stats that say Dak really is better than Dalton, and you're right. But do they say that he is worlds better? Because this does not. You have to ask yourself, what is the limit you'd pay for an Andrew Dalton? Would you even pay the 22 Foles got? If you're thinking in the teens, then you may literally be paying Dak twice as much as Dalton would get. Is he THAT much better? In what category?
Sidenote, Andrew Dalton is one of my Dak Prescott 16. If you don't know what that is, allow me to educate:
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/the-dak-prescott-16.433777/
If Dak signs before the season, that will make 17. At least for the time being.
Today, we will be comparing Dak to another QB on another team that is EERILY similar to Dallas's situation. Dak is QB A, other is QB B's first 3 years:
Total yards, Passing AND Rushing
Dak: 11820
QB B: 11815
If you factor in sack yards, QB B actually has more net yards gained. From a prolificness standpoint, both quarterbacks present nearly identical yardage-moving abilities. The close stats could mean either QB B does not run but is a deeper thrower, or QB B is not as much a thrower as Dak but he runs like the wind. Or option 3, he's very identical to Dak. Any way you slice it, they get the yards on equal terms.
Regular Season Record
Dak: 32-16
QB B: 30-18
Okay, some variation, but still impressively close. We would need to see the talent distribution on these teams and the coaching quality to really judge what this means, but the yardage stat implied that it makes sense this is similar.
Playoff Appearances
Dak: 2
QB B: 3
Thought I'd put this in here, because it is relevant. If Dak isn't winning Super Bowls or breaking your NFCCG streak, you can AT LEAST say he has division championships on his shelf. Well, so does this guy.
Am I just cherry picking stats that don't paint the whole picture? Well then let's try and paint it. Let's keep going!
Total Touchdowns, Rushing AND Passing
Dak: 85
QB B: 86
TD rate (%)
Dak: 4.5
QB B: 4.9
Huh. Everyone tells me 20 passing and 5 rushing every year is some kind of record, but in reality it's still only 25 tds. This guy is matching him blow for blow. You have Dak, or you have him. Or maybe he is Dak?
Total Interceptions and Fumbles
Dak: 50
QB B: 64
Here is some separation. Fumbles are a tricky stat because it's random where that ball will end up. Is Dak really to blame if he loses 80% of his fumbles, or should he really be credited if he only lost 10%? Putting the ball on the ground in the first place is the problem. Still though, Dak's INT rate has been swell, pulling him ahead. But then what exactly is that fumble rate which is allowing QB B to be within an earshot of Dak?
% of Dropbacks that Result in a Fumble
Dak: 1.8%
QB B: 0.9%
This is alarming. Twice as likely. This should indicate to you that QB B probably isn't a scrambling QB, but then if he's able to match Dak yard-for-yard, is the ballooning fumble chance worth the negligible difference in offensive output?
And here's the biggest variance I could find:
Sacks Taken
Dak: 113
QB B: 75
Holy Smokes! And Dallas has one of the best O-lines in decades. Yes, Frederick was out last year and Smith was in and out the year before, but this also includes your historically good 2016 O-line. So if Dak isn't taking too many unnecessary sacks, then the only other answer is that this other guy has an even BETTER historically good O-line.
Completion %
Dak: 66%
QB B: 61%
Here's the big one, Dak sweeps the leg. But hold on, is it good to preserve your completion % by taking the sack? That's 38 sacks QB B threw the ball away to avoid. Not ONLY was it a smarter play, but he also doesn't lose the yardage Dak did, making it worth much more than a simple preservation of that percentage. Let's figure this out analytically...
Yards Lost to Sacks
Dak: 675
QB B: 571
Hmm. 104 yards. What is Dak's yards per attempt? 7.4. So Dak lost over 14 completed passes in the additional sacks he took. So to show the value of the sacks in completions and yards thrown in order to put both QB on a similar level, you'd have to remove the sack by saying Dak threw the ball away, but then you'd also have to remove the sack yards from his completions. Not only does that put him below QB B in total yards accounted for, that's 14 completed passes he has to lose and 38 additional attempts that have to be added for throwaways. Now here's the the completion percentage from that:
Rudimentarily Adjusted Completion Percentage:
Dak: 63%
QB B: 61%
So is it worth taking sacks on third down, on your failed scramble attempts? Because Dak is a scrambling QB, is he trying to make something out of nothing and getting caught in the moment too much? 184 rushes to 113 sacks. You can blame the O-line, but it really is much harder to block for a mobile QB, because you don't know exactly where he is at any given time. Not saying being mobile is worse, but in this instance it does bring him down closer to our comparison.
QB B, if you haven't guessed by now, is not someone who'd garner anything near Dak's contract demands. Andrew Dalton did not have Ezekiel Elliot his first three years in the league. He did not have defenses stacking 8 in the box on early downs, 7 in the box on third and medium.
The Bengals had a good O-line in the early 2010's anchored by Andrew Whitworth, but it was not what you have/had. In fact, Dallas has had vastly superior talent overall. For every Whitworth there is a Zack Martin AND a Tyron Smith. For every AJ Green there's an Ezekiel Elliot, a Travis Frederick, and some of an Amari Cooper. I can assure you they did not have 8 players on the NFL top 100 while Dalton was on his rookie contract.
No one here should claim Marvin Lewis is a superior coach to Jason Garrett, that excuse wouldn't work. Marvin Lewis has zero playoff wins in 14 years in Cincy. Jason might get fired because 4 straight playoff seasons just isn't enough. Lewis got fired because his last playoff appearance WAS 4 years ago.
Yes, I know what you're thinking, there are other stats that say Dak really is better than Dalton, and you're right. But do they say that he is worlds better? Because this does not. You have to ask yourself, what is the limit you'd pay for an Andrew Dalton? Would you even pay the 22 Foles got? If you're thinking in the teens, then you may literally be paying Dak twice as much as Dalton would get. Is he THAT much better? In what category?
Sidenote, Andrew Dalton is one of my Dak Prescott 16. If you don't know what that is, allow me to educate:
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/the-dak-prescott-16.433777/
If Dak signs before the season, that will make 17. At least for the time being.
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