My opinion on the problem with the Offense

[Chuck 54]

It's not coaching or play-calling. It's not the defenses we've faced. It's not the QB.

When any of those things aren't aligned perfectly for us, it makes life more difficult at times because some defenses are better than others; sometimes the play-caller finds a rhythm that meshes where the 11 players on offense are finding success versus a particular opponent, and sometimes the QB plays better than other times as team after team tries to show him something that will make his decisions difficult, but those things make little differences, not huge ones from week to week like we have encountered recently.

Anyone who has ever played or coached football will tell you that the most important factor on offense, no matter what the system, no matter what the play call, no matter who the players or opponent, is EXECUTION. That means each player doing his job, whether he wins his battle completely or at least battles to a draw, and that means no penalties, which is a failure to execute. Earlier in the season, the offense was executing at a high level, blocking, running, passing, catching balls, getting the most yards from each play, very few penalties, taking what the defense gave us. The play calls, from screen passes to runs up the middle or outside to the basic passing tree all looked great because of execution, not X's and O's or a rookie QB who hadn't hit the wall.

Now, we've hit a rough spot. Linemen are missing blocks or losing battles more frequently; backs are cutting into tackles, receivers are struggling, and our rookie QB is feeling the pressure of every mistake as he tries to dance around and find the comfort he felt when everyone was executing. He's not experienced enough for play after play improvisation, especially on 3rd and long. That's Romo's strength. Dak's strength is reading the defense and making the best decision on where to go with the ball, taking what the defense gives him with lower risk of turnovers.

When the blocking breaks down, when the receivers aren't on the same page, when the running game isn't going, and when we are behind the chains or lose large chunks of yardage due to penalties, he's not as comfortable as earlier in the year. All 11 guys need to start executing better; you can't depend on a rookie QB to make up for everyone else's mistakes. He doesn't seem capable of doing that at this point.

I even think Zeke has regressed a bit. He still gives complete effort and runs hard and sticks his nose in there for the dirty yards, but as an armchair annalist, I don't think he's seeing the cutbacks, and I mean really cutting it back, bending it from going left to truly going right at 45 degrees sometimes. He's a big man, and his cut back seems more like planting and cutting up. He cuts it up hard, but sometimes it really looks like there's a lot of room to bend it way back with a little patience.

Again, we need execution from all the veterans out there; then we'll see better results and comfort from both of our rookies who are both pressing a little too hard to be the saviors. After all, they are only rookies, no matter how talented or how big their impact was earlier when the game was coming easy to them and to the team. They are not league MVPs; they cannot be expected to lift 9 veterans onto their shoulders and carry them to the promised land. That kind of pressure makes for a RB who runs harder than smart, anxious to get up field faster to get what he can, and it makes for a jittery QB who feels he's in a different game than the one he was playing the first 8 weeks when all he had to do was his job, take what the defense gave him, hit the open man, pass into the blitz, let others do their thing. Now, he's stuck in a faster paced game with longer 3rd downs, and the pressure of trying to convert longer passes into coverage despite his aversion to risk taking and turning the ball over.

That's my opinion....we need better execution from everyone. That means more first downs early in the sequence, and shorter, more manageable 3rd downs with a more stable pocket to step up into.

 

[CF74]

Another possibility and I don't want to steal your thunder here is maybe it's those charity cleats nobody is talking about. The field was icy and when you watch Dez run around he looked like he had no traction...

-2 cents

 

[Sepia]

I saw a post on Reddit that attributed a lot of our offensive flailing to Swaim's injury. I know it's been said, but our TE rotation now lets defenses know exactly what we're planning to do with the ball.

 

[DogFace]

Another possibility and I don't want to steal your thunder here is maybe it's those charity cleats nobody is talking about. The field was icy and when you watch Dez run around he looked like he had no traction...

-2 cents

I was thinking that was the Vikings game.

Makes since and he did flat out slip once. Bet they only had one length on the cleat and no way to adjust during the game.

 

[Wolfpack]

The play calling is much different from the 1st half of the season and you have defenses that have nearly a full year of tape of Dak and your 2016 offense now. Dallas has typically been a simple predictable offense and I think they've fallen back into old habits vs some of the more dynamic play calling (and formations ) you saw earlier. NY sat on the runs and short patterns and everyone is going to do that until Dallas can prove they can do something else.

 

[VACowboy]

I saw a post on Reddit that attributed a lot of our offensive flailing to Swaim's injury. I know it's been said, but our TE rotation now lets defenses know exactly what we're planning to do with the ball.

It coincides, but if our coaches and players can't adapt and overcome the loss of a #2 TE, our team isn't nearly half as good as we thought it was.

I think we're just facing better defenses that require a little more imagination to defeat.

 

[Chuck 54]

I think all of the above are factors, but you can't blame the backup TE and the play-calling or the amount of tape out there for ProBowl linemen missing blocks, for all the penalties, etc. Consider the old option run in college for a long time by certain teams. Everyone knew there were only 3 basic plays to defense, but the execution is why it continued to work.

Generally, teams don't win football games because the offense tricked the defense; They win because they understand the defense and whatever the play call, execution on a running play means positive yardage, and on a passing play, the QB and receivers know how to attack that defense. That's why good QBs and receivers love to see the defense blitz; they know where the weakness is and that it's easy to take advantage if everyone sees the same thing and executes.

 

[percyhoward]

It's not the defenses we've faced.

Here are the top 4 defenses in fewest points allowed per drive. Note that only 3/100 of a point separates them, so they're virtually all tied for #1. We've played four games against these teams, and had 3 bad games (our offense's only bad games of the year) and 1 great one.

1 Bal 1.51
2 Den 1.52
3 NYG 1.53
4 Min 1.54

We've played our other nine games against defenses that rank an average of 23rd.

 

[NextGenBoys]

I saw a post on Reddit that attributed a lot of our offensive flailing to Swaim's injury. I know it's been said, but our TE rotation now lets defenses know exactly what we're planning to do with the ball.

There are many different elements, but this is a major one. Been saying it for the last few weeks.

 

[NextGenBoys]

It coincides, but if our coaches and players can't adapt and overcome the loss of a #2 TE, our team isn't nearly half as good as we thought it was.

I think we're just facing better defenses that require a little more imagination to defeat.

And the coaches are getting lazy, just expecting us to out-execute everyone we play.

 

[Sepia]

I saw a post on Reddit that attributed a lot of our offensive flailing to Swaim's injury. I know it's been said, but our TE rotation now lets defenses know exactly what we're planning to do with the ball.

Here is the entire post by user Kwarizmi:

As we know, the Cowboys offense is engineered towards a power-running game. This has a very specific meaning: what the Cowboys want to do is put 7 of our guys against opposing defense's front 7, and either scheme or motion one guy into the point of attack to create local numerical superiority, or just put hat-on-hat and beat the opponents physically. If the power-running game is executed correctly, more often than not they'll give the RB a "two-way go" at the point of attack - meaning the RB can read the lead block and only has to make a one cut to get past the line.

Properly executed, a power-running game will chew up clock and exhaust defenses utterly. There are several possible counters to a power-running game, but I will only list the major two:

1. Disciplined, aggressive play by the interior D-line and outside LBs. Interior linemen who can fiercely control their gaps can command double-teams and inhibit the O-line's ability to run traps, combos, and zone sweeps. Outside LBs who can diagnose plays can minimize the damage with vigorous back-side pursuit.
2. Add an extra defender to the box. If the defense can't hold 7-on-7, then they can try to hold 7-on-8. This means committing the free defender (usually, the SS) to the line of scrimmage and adjusting coverage depending on offensive personnel, and down-and-distance.

Turns out, the Cowboys have been using a personnel combination that all but eliminates Counter #2.

NFL teams run their "base" offense out of basically 3 personnel packages. The "12 package": 1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WR. The "21": 2 RBs (or 1 RB and 1 FB/H-back). The "11": 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR. Every NFL team has a tendency to run specific plays out of specific formations. Norv Turner's version of the "Air Coryell" offense, for example, tends to run out of the 21 and pass out of the 11. So, defensive coordinators play the percentages and (e.g.) run their base 4-3 Tampa 2 against the 21, and a nickel package against the 11.

The Cowboys execute their power-run game out of the 12 package. But most of the time, defenses can't easily counter it because the Cowboys can - and do - run their entire playbook from the 12. For the first 11 games of the year, we saw the Cowboys do everything out of the 12: run between the tackles, sweeps and screens, quick slants, bootlegs, 7-step drops.... This formation is quite versatile, and that versatility presents a quandary for defenses who want to use Counter #2. What happens if they read run, stack 8 men into the box to counter, and the DAL offense runs a pass?

1. The SS has to stay home, leaving a single "high" safety and the two CBs man-to-man. With Dez and Williams as their X and Y, this is a matchup the Cowboys will gladly take.
2. The SS has to sprint back into his zone, leaving the LBs to cover the short zones sideline-to-sideline against our wizard TE1 (Old Man Witten) and speedy RB1 (Zeke). Again, a matchup the Cowboys like.
3. The D runs some sort of delayed blitz or zone blitz, trying to disguise the fact that they are defending 4-5 receivers with a 6-man shell. Very risky if the blitzers don't get to the QB, because then Dak has a clean pocket to wait for a receiver to split a seam or find a spot between zones. Again, an outcome the Cowboys can live with.

Of course, this line of reasoning is predicated on the fact that you have 2 TEs who are dual-threat, at least on paper. The Cowboys are learning that the hard way.

The Cowboys entered camp with 4 TEs on the roster: Witten, James Hanna, Geoff Swaim, and Gavin Escobar. Hanna underwent two surgeries on his knee and has been on the PUP list all year. Rather than bringing in a new TE before the season opener, or speeding along the Rico Gathers project, the Cowboys decided to roll with just 3 TEs. We were all kind of okay with that because Witten is basically invulnerable, and Swaim is a serviceable (if low-ceiling) blocking TE who can catch well when called upon to do so, and Escobar is a serviceable pass-catching TE who can pretend to occasionally mime like he's going toblock.

The Cowboys rolled to 9 straight victories behind their power-running game, relying on the 12 package to generate both tough yards and big plays. With 2 proper TEs, the 12 created mismatches and unsolvable challenges for defenses. And we all saw that this was good.

Then Geoff Swaim went down in the game against the Steelers. Now, "next man up" doctrine would suggest that Escobar would take his spot in the 12 package. Problem is, Escobar is hot garbage as a blocker. So the Cowboys devised a solution - play backup C Joe Looney as the TE2 in the 12 package!

As you can see, when Swaim was healthy he took about 35% of the Cowboys offensive snaps. Since Witten basically never comes off the field, we can safely assume all of those snaps were out of the 12 package. When Swaim went down, the Cowboys turned to a rotation of Looney and Escobar for the 12 package and kept using it for about 35% of plays.

And the offense started to sputter.

Cowboys punditry have (rightly so) singled out poor play by Dak, Dez, and others. I would say that the drop in offense has to do with the utter dumpster fire that is the TE2 situation, and the unmitigated disaster it spells for the power-running game.

The 12 has no versatility anymore - once our TE2 hits the field, the D can guess with high confidence what the play is going to be. Before, they had to play Swaim straight up, both as a blocker and a receiver. Escobar and Looney are completely one-dimensional. Is that Looney at TE2? It's going to be a run. Escobar? Pass. Looney is no threat to catch a ball, so when he's in the SS can attack the line with confidence. Escobar is no threat to block anyone he doesn't outweigh by 50lbs, so when he's in the SS can drop into coverage and the DL can pin their ears back and attack.

It's hard to overstate how bad it is for the Cowboys offense that opposing defenses know pretty much what's up every time the 12 package hits the field.

With Looney in, the D can roll its coverage towards Witten if they read pass. Witten was targeted 29 times in the four-game stretch between GB and PIT. In the four-game span since Swaim went down, Witten has been targeted 17 times.

With Escobar in, the D can key on Witten and/or the strong-side G if they read run, and the backside LB knows to hustle to be ball because our boy Gavin is unlikely to hold the edge.

So, what can the Cowboys do?
From where I'm sitting, the Cowboys have 4 5 options if they want to restore the power-run game to its Week 2-11 glory:

1. Enroll Joe Looney in an emergency crash course in how to run a dig/curl/out route so opposing OLBs have to play him with some semblance of honesty. Likelihood: 10%
2. Inject Gavin Escobar with Super Soldier Serum so he can block a LB without holding, clipping, or missing him entirely. Or just remind him that it's part of his mutha ****** job. Likelihood: < 0.01%
3. Call up Rico Gathers and hope for the best. Likelihood: 1%
4. Sign a proper blocking+catching TE off the street or off someone's practice squad. Likelihood: 15%
5. Mostly abandon the 12 and run the power-running game out of the 21, like the Cowboys did for much of the 90s and early 2000s, with Darren McFadden in the H-back role. When we've seen the 21 so far this season, the Cowboys use Keith Smith (6-0, 232) as the RB2, and either ask him to lead block, pass block, or run into the flat. I would argue that DMC (6-1, 210) can do all these things, is a far better route runner and pass catching threat, and is no mean rushing threat himself, for the occasional misdirection toss sweep.

Without the power-running game, the Cowboys offense has to rely on the play of Dak Prescott and the WR. As impressive as Dak has been, I would say most opposing defenses are happy to take that gamble. Especially in light of Dez Bryant's sudden inability to run option routes for QBs not named Romo:

Targets Receptions %
Past 19 games 152 69 45.39%
Previous 32 games 295 181 61.35%
... leaving Dak to rely on Beasley, Witten, and Williams for a passing game. As much as Beasley and (arguably) Williams have overperformed, this is not a sustainable offense for a rookie QB on the hunt for a deep playoff run.

Thus, the Cowboys must restore the power-running game. But without a legitimate TE2 on the roster, they'll have to do it out of the 21. In this light, the activation of DMC makes the most sense.

 

[CF74]

I was thinking that was the Vikings game.

Makes since and he did flat out slip once. Bet they only had one length on the cleat and no way to adjust during the game.

I thought they've been wearing them for a month?

 

[kramskoi]

It's not coaching or play-calling. It's not the defenses we've faced. It's not the QB.

When any of those things aren't aligned perfectly for us, it makes life more difficult at times because some defenses are better than others; sometimes the play-caller finds a rhythm that meshes where the 11 players on offense are finding success versus a particular opponent, and sometimes the QB plays better than other times as team after team tries to show him something that will make his decisions difficult, but those things make little differences, not huge ones from week to week like we have encountered recently.

Anyone who has ever played or coached football will tell you that the most important factor on offense, no matter what the system, no matter what the play call, no matter who the players or opponent, is EXECUTION. That means each player doing his job, whether he wins his battle completely or at least battles to a draw, and that means no penalties, which is a failure to execute. Earlier in the season, the offense was executing at a high level, blocking, running, passing, catching balls, getting the most yards from each play, very few penalties, taking what the defense gave us. The play calls, from screen passes to runs up the middle or outside to the basic passing tree all looked great because of execution, not X's and O's or a rookie QB who hadn't hit the wall.

Now, we've hit a rough spot. Linemen are missing blocks or losing battles more frequently; backs are cutting into tackles, receivers are struggling, and our rookie QB is feeling the pressure of every mistake as he tries to dance around and find the comfort he felt when everyone was executing. He's not experienced enough for play after play improvisation, especially on 3rd and long. That's Romo's strength. Dak's strength is reading the defense and making the best decision on where to go with the ball, taking what the defense gives him with lower risk of turnovers.

When the blocking breaks down, when the receivers aren't on the same page, when the running game isn't going, and when we are behind the chains or lose large chunks of yardage due to penalties, he's not as comfortable as earlier in the year. All 11 guys need to start executing better; you can't depend on a rookie QB to make up for everyone else's mistakes. He doesn't seem capable of doing that at this point.

I even think Zeke has regressed a bit. He still gives complete effort and runs hard and sticks his nose in there for the dirty yards, but as an armchair annalist, I don't think he's seeing the cutbacks, and I mean really cutting it back, bending it from going left to truly going right at 45 degrees sometimes. He's a big man, and his cut back seems more like planting and cutting up. He cuts it up hard, but sometimes it really looks like there's a lot of room to bend it way back with a little patience.

Again, we need execution from all the veterans out there; then we'll see better results and comfort from both of our rookies who are both pressing a little too hard to be the saviors. After all, they are only rookies, no matter how talented or how big their impact was earlier when the game was coming easy to them and to the team. They are not league MVPs; they cannot be expected to lift 9 veterans onto their shoulders and carry them to the promised land. That kind of pressure makes for a RB who runs harder than smart, anxious to get up field faster to get what he can, and it makes for a jittery QB who feels he's in a different game than the one he was playing the first 8 weeks when all he had to do was his job, take what the defense gave him, hit the open man, pass into the blitz, let others do their thing. Now, he's stuck in a faster paced game with longer 3rd downs, and the pressure of trying to convert longer passes into coverage despite his aversion to risk taking and turning the ball over.

That's my opinion....we need better execution from everyone. That means more first downs early in the sequence, and shorter, more manageable 3rd downs with a more stable pocket to step up into.

The fact remains that the Rams, Browns and Bears all scored more points than the supposedly elite Dallas offense...with JPP at DE. I'm also not of the opinion that Prescott is superior to Romo on consistently knowing where the ball should go. Sunday surely didn't bare this out.

 

[erod]

The key to great offense is making a defense have to defend the entire field. If you can make them pay for "cheating" against your tendencies, they have to play straight up, which spreads them out and creates more individual matchups.

That's why QBs are the key to everything. If they can read the defense and attack weaknesses, offense can look pretty easy.

 

[kramskoi]

Here is the entire post by user Kwarizmi:

In fairness...Escobar did a decent job against Pittsburgh...it's against the Vikings where he had some "real" trouble...prompting several penalties. I can agree that the current situation telegraphs to the SS and defenses in general behind which door the Dallas offense is hiding. Moreover, considering what I saw against the Giants, Looney should not be regularly tasked with the protection of Prescott's right side. His limitations are overt. I just don't understand the deal with Escobar. This is his fourth season (a contract year to boot) and Swaim was seeing the majority of the snaps early in the year...essentially beating him out for TE2. When the hell are the Cowboys ever going to get this TE2 business straight? Fasano, Bennett, Hanna, Phillips, Escobar, now Swaim. And you still end up with Witten as the lone dual threat TE on the roster. We might be thinking: "no more drafting of Tight Ends", but looking at the present situation, I would say that Tight End may continue to be a priority, as Witten is not getting any younger. If he were to go down, I cannot even fathom the consequences for the Dallas offense. He's been so good for so long and considering where Escobar is in blocking, it seems that his REAL replacement is not yet on the roster. The problem then becomes: Do you draft the stud pass-catching TE and HOPE that you can make him half of what Witten is...or...do you go for the stud blocker who might have hands like bricks? A real quandary if you persist in your efforts to run base 12. Swaim seems to embrace his role so one must hope that he bounces back strongly next year. They will certainly need him in 12 if Escobar is even still on the team. He seems resigned to his fate of being let go next year (third on this year's depth chart). Hanna got a deal last year, Swaim will return, Witten is Witten and Gathers is still learning. So the Cowboys may still be lulled into grabbing another TE in the later rounds (insurance in case the Gathers project doesn't work out). They definitely need to keep 4 TEs at least, given the injury history and the base offense they choose to run. Seems like every year a TE goes down by mid-season. Escobar, like Bennett could possibly land in New England, where the running game is only used to keep defenses honest...and where his receiving ability (especially in the red zone) would likely be more welcome.


2016.............................................Geoff Swaim..................................6 receptions, 69 yards, 0 TD [75% catch rate]
2016.............................................Gavin Escobar...............................4 receptions, 23 yards, 1 TD [75% catch rate]

2015.............................................James Hanna................................9 receptions, 79 yards, 0 TDs

2014.............................................Gavin Escobar...............................9 receptions, 105 yards, 4 TDs

2013.............................................Gavin Escobar...............................9 receptions, 134 yards, 2 TDs

2012.............................................James Hanna................................11 receptions, 86 yards, 0 TDs

2011.............................................Martellus Bennett..........................17 receptions, 144 yards, 0 TDs