My "Who catches the flu in April?" Mock

[tm1119]

[quote="xwalker, post: 5501691, member: 5194"Summary: I'm not over estimating the players, I just have limited expectations for the Cowboys' defense in 2014. Just add as many talented draft picks as possible, put everything together in training camp and give it a chance to develop. Then come back next off-season and be more specific in addressing needs. I'm hopeful that by the end of 2014, we look at the team and think they are legitimately 1 or 2 players away from a top 5 defense. At that point they can go all in on a free agent or take a 1st round pick based on need, but doing that this season is not the best option based on where they are in terms of talent and scheme knowledge at this point in time.[/quote]

In reality that's not a bad way to think and how to build the D, but in Jerry's world I doubt it's going to happen. I'm honestly going to be very surprised if our 1st round pick isn't Barr, Ealy, or Ford. It's just being set up too perfectly for Jerry not to.

 

[xwalker]

Smith ran a 4.52 at combine. Woodson (and Shazier) ran a 4.51 at the combine. Smith chose not to run at his pro day but would have put up similar times as Woody and Shazier did at theirs.

Smith is more than fast enough to play either WILL or SS at NFL level. Smith's speed is not an issue.

I have an old hard copy of draft info that has Woody with at 4.4 forty.

Shazier is listed as DNP at the combine and 4.38 at his Pro Day. He is 237 lbs.

Telvin Smith ran a 4.52 forty at 218 lbs.

I created a linear extrapolation algorithm a few years ago that I derived from past draft data that adjusts forty times based on weight differences.

Telvin Smith projects to a 4.66 forty at the same weight as Shazier (237 lbs).

 

[BAT]

I have an old hard copy of draft info that has Woody with at 4.4 forty.

Shazier is listed as DNP at the combine and 4.38 at his Pro Day. He is 237 lbs.

Telvin Smith ran a 4.52 forty at 218 lbs.

I created a linear extrapolation algorithm a few years ago that I derived from past draft data that adjusts forty times based on weight differences.

Telvin Smith projects to a 4.66 forty at the same weight as Shazier (237 lbs).

I watched Telvin Smith run two 40's at the combine. The first was 4.48 and the second was 4.41. The official time was adjusted to 4.52. It was televised so you can confirm for yourself. You and I both know that individual pro days are notorious for having faster 40's. Just because Shazier is a freakish athlete does not mean that Telvin is this plodder you are making him out to be. You do not know if Smith cannot maintain his speed with an extra 10 lbs, you are simply projecting. I watched Telvin Smith shadow blue chip WR Sammy Watkins ala Darren Woodson with my own eyes.

Telvin Smith may not have 4.3 speed (or he may, he chose not to run at his pro day) but he is still the best coverage LB in this draft.

 

[tm1119]

I have an old hard copy of draft info that has Woody with at 4.4 forty.

Shazier is listed as DNP at the combine and 4.38 at his Pro Day. He is 237 lbs.

Telvin Smith ran a 4.52 forty at 218 lbs.

I created a linear extrapolation algorithm a few years ago that I derived from past draft data that adjusts forty times based on weight differences.

Telvin Smith projects to a 4.66 forty at the same weight as Shazier (237 lbs).

Dude, really? Its just football. I mean props for being smart and coming up with that I guess, but you can't really think it actually translates to football do you?

 

[xwalker]

Dude, really? Its just football. I mean props for being smart and coming up with that I guess, but you can't really think it actually translates to football do you?

I would say that it translates about as much as forty times themselves translate to football.

Draft fans would say that a CB that runs a 4.8 forty to be terrible but and OL that runs a 4.8 forty would be applauded as a terrific athlete. I just wanted a method to see how different size player compare.

 

[xwalker]

I watched Telvin Smith run two 40's at the combine. The first was 4.48 and the second was 4.41. The official time was adjusted to 4.52. It was televised so you can confirm for yourself. You and I both know that individual pro days are notorious for having faster 40's. Just because Shazier is a freakish athlete does not mean that Telvin is this plodder you are making him out to be. You do not know if Smith cannot maintain his speed with an extra 10 lbs, you are simply projecting. I watched Telvin Smith shadow blue chip WR Sammy Watkins ala Darren Woodson with my own eyes.

Telvin Smith may not have 4.3 speed (or he may, he chose not to run at his pro day) but he is still the best coverage LB in this draft.

I never said that he is slow; however, you need to compare apples to apples.

I understand that people have pet cats and don't want to consider all of the issues with that player.

The difference between Smith and Shazier is 19 lbs, not 10.

There is no doubt that players will run slower when they gain weight. We can debate how much speed they would lose, but they definitely do lose some speed.

Sean Lee ran a 4.6 forty. He said after his rookie season that he could tell a big difference between when he played at about 241 compared to playing a about 236. He said that he will never play at over 240 in the future. If he says 5 lbs makes a big difference then 10 to 20 lbs is probably very significant.

I would love it if the Cowboys had the luxury to draft Smith and let him stay at his college playing weight and be used only in passing situations as a nickel/dime type LB. It might actually be worth it he he falls to the 4th as some presictions that I've seen.

 

[BAT]

I never said that he is slow; however, you need to compare apples to apples.

I understand that people have pet cats and don't want to consider all of the issues with that player.

The difference between Smith and Shazier is 19 lbs, not 10.

There is no doubt that players will run slower when they gain weight. We can debate how much speed they would lose, but they definitely do lose some speed.

Sean Lee ran a 4.6 forty. He said after his rookie season that he could tell a big difference between when he played at about 241 compared to playing a about 236. He said that he will never play at over 240 in the future. If he says 5 lbs makes a big difference then 10 to 20 lbs is probably very significant.

I would love it if the Cowboys had the luxury to draft Smith and let him stay at his college playing weight and be used only in passing situations as a nickel/dime type LB. It might actually be worth it he he falls to the 4th as some presictions that I've seen.

I admit that Telvin is a pet cat. However, you are missing my point. Whether you think Smith needs to gain 19 lbs or 10 lbs is immaterial. There is no magic weight that will make you successful in the NFL, that magic weight does not exist, it is different for every individual. Bruce Carter was pushing 245 last season and is considered very athletic, while Derrick Brooks was barely 235 and Brooks was the better run stopper, by far.

Telvin Smith may get bigger, he may not, but he is still the best cover LB in this draft. There are bigger and some even faster than Telvin, but he is better in coverage not just because of pure speed but because he is better at flipping his hips than someone who might be faster in a straight line. Similar to Lee, who is far from the fastest MLB in the league, but he is so good in coverage because he has great anticipation, vision and hands. Lee just explodes to the ball while its in the air, similar to how he explodes into the guy he is tackling.

During the Jimmy years his heaviest OLB was Godfrey Myles, at 240, and like all Jimmy LBers, he could run. But because of his size, I foolishly wanted him to oust Dixon Edwards at SAM who played between 225-230. But Edwards was the more physical, more consistent player, and deserved to start.

 

[casmith07]

I just feel like this would be a JAG mock.

 

[xwalker]

You're talking about the difference in guys that weigh in the low 230 range to over 240. There aren't any LBs in the NFL at 218.

Dixon Edwards 6-1, 234
Derrick Brooks 6-0, 235
Lavonte David 6-1, 233 (this is his NFL weight and combine weight)
Zach Thomas 5-11, 242
Dat Nguyen 5-11, 234
Dexter Coakley 5-10, 230

Extra weight not only affects straight line speed but hip flexibility and agility.

There is a reason that most average NFL Safeties are better in coverage than most (probably all) elite LBs.

There was a visible difference in Barry Church's coverage ability when he dropped from 222 to 212 a couple of years ago. I'm basing those numbers on an interview where he talked about it.

Summary: I'm not saying that Telvin Smith won't be a good player. I'm saying that he will have to gain some weight and that he will lose some of the speed/agility/flexibility that made him an elite coverage player in college. A 2nd round pick is really high when nobody knows how much he will be affected by the weight gain.

The whole discussion comes down to the fact that I rate him as a 4th round pick and you rate him as a 2nd round pick. In reality he'll probably go somewhere between the Cowboys 2nd and 4th round picks.

 

[BAT]

I just feel like this would be a JAG mock.

That makes sense coming from a JAG poster.