Cbz40
The Grand Poobah
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Web Posted: 11/20/2008 4:23 CST
Bad week for NFL bets, but if you must …
Chuck Blount - San Antonio Express-News
After taking a look at the lines and matchups this week in the NFL, I’d prefer to channel a little “Thornton Melon,” Rodney Dangerfield’s role in the 1980s classic movie “Back to School.”
NFL Picks
“My only advice is — don’t go. It’s a jungle out there. Stay at home and live with your parents,” Melon said to a graduating class.
It’s a good way to approach Week 12. The games are tough to predict regardless of the spread, and when you combine the puny spreads listed with the favorites, it’s impossible to think that this week can be beaten.
Alas, that isn’t the spirit of this weekly column. I’m forced to take a stab at it and the paragraphs below may even sound a tad convincing (or not). My best advice is to avoid betting on the games entirely.
Last week, I was an unimpressive 8-8 against the spread. For the year, this column is 86-67-1.
Let’s take a look at Week 12:
Thursday’s game
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-10.5): A controversial call turned a winning Steelers bet into a loser last week. It shouldn’t come down to that type of call this week as the physical nature of the Steelers’ defense is traditionally too much for the Bengals to handle. Steelers 28, Bengals 14
Sunday’s games
Buffalo @ Kansas City (+3): Wow, did Bills quarterback Trent Edwards look terrible last Monday night against the Browns. Can’t imagine he’ll hold up too well in a hostile Arrowhead Stadium either, even if the Chiefs are as soft as a marshmallow. Chiefs 17, Bills 16
N.Y. Jets (+5) @ Tennessee: I’m slowly starting to get hypnotized by the Jets. They may not beat the league’s only undefeated team in the 10-0 Titans, but the underdog points will make the difference. Titans 24, Jets 21
New England (+2) @ Miami: Yes, Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel really did throw for 400 yards last week against the Jets. Hopefully the defense will show up against the Fins. Patriots 20, Dolphins 17
San Francisco @ Dallas (-10): Cowboys emphatically get back into the playoff mix with a thrashing of the 49ers. Cowboys 35, 49ers 20
Tampa Bay (-8.5) @ Detroit: The Lions came close to a victory Sunday. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen again in the quest for 0-16. Buccaneers 21, Lions 10
Philadelphia (+1) @ Baltimore: Bad line for what should be a great game. Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb should know that ties are indeed a part of the game this week. Eagles 10, Ravens 6
Chicago (-8.5) @ St. Louis: This is one of those games that should be blacked out in its entirety due to the putrid play of these two teams of late — even in Chicago and St. Louis. Bears 27, Rams 10
Minnesota @ Jacksonville (-2.5): This is probably the game that set me over the edge stating that Week 12 is unbeatable. This is a classic matchup of two schizophrenic football teams. Jaguars 28, Vikings 24
Carolina (+1) @ Atlanta: Game of the week? Absolutely. It’ll be interesting to see how Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan holds up against an aggressive Panthers defense. Panthers 23, Falcons 20
Oakland (+9.5) @ Denver: It’s not in the nature of the Broncos to come back and destroy a team (even as bad as the Raiders) one week after stealing a huge road win in Atlanta. Broncos 20, Raiders 14
Washington (-3) @ Seattle: Cross country road trips are usually a killer, but everybody in the Commanders organization should realize how important it is to come out of Seattle a winner. Commanders 30, Seahawks 21
N.Y. Giants (-3) @ Arizona: Here’s a rule of thumb that’s paying off so far this season — take the Giants EVERY week. They are 8-3 against the spread. This should be a fun game to watch. Giants 34, Cardinals 30
Indianapolis (+3) @ San Diego: One of the true joys in my life is the sideline shots of the Chargers bench. Norv Turner has a constant look of “Is this really happening to me?” on his face. Colts 30, Chargers 24
Monday’s game
Green Bay (+2) @ New Orleans: Reggie Bush is expected to return to the Saints lineup and will provide a spark, and the Packers are starting to look like a real contender in the NFC — a position most pundits were quick to give to New Orleans at the start of the season. Packers 27, Saints 26
Chuck’s Week 11 bankroll (started with $250): $532.88, gain of $282.88
Bad week for NFL bets, but if you must …
Chuck Blount - San Antonio Express-News
After taking a look at the lines and matchups this week in the NFL, I’d prefer to channel a little “Thornton Melon,” Rodney Dangerfield’s role in the 1980s classic movie “Back to School.”
NFL Picks
“My only advice is — don’t go. It’s a jungle out there. Stay at home and live with your parents,” Melon said to a graduating class.
It’s a good way to approach Week 12. The games are tough to predict regardless of the spread, and when you combine the puny spreads listed with the favorites, it’s impossible to think that this week can be beaten.
Alas, that isn’t the spirit of this weekly column. I’m forced to take a stab at it and the paragraphs below may even sound a tad convincing (or not). My best advice is to avoid betting on the games entirely.
Last week, I was an unimpressive 8-8 against the spread. For the year, this column is 86-67-1.
Let’s take a look at Week 12:
Thursday’s game
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-10.5): A controversial call turned a winning Steelers bet into a loser last week. It shouldn’t come down to that type of call this week as the physical nature of the Steelers’ defense is traditionally too much for the Bengals to handle. Steelers 28, Bengals 14
Sunday’s games
Buffalo @ Kansas City (+3): Wow, did Bills quarterback Trent Edwards look terrible last Monday night against the Browns. Can’t imagine he’ll hold up too well in a hostile Arrowhead Stadium either, even if the Chiefs are as soft as a marshmallow. Chiefs 17, Bills 16
N.Y. Jets (+5) @ Tennessee: I’m slowly starting to get hypnotized by the Jets. They may not beat the league’s only undefeated team in the 10-0 Titans, but the underdog points will make the difference. Titans 24, Jets 21
New England (+2) @ Miami: Yes, Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel really did throw for 400 yards last week against the Jets. Hopefully the defense will show up against the Fins. Patriots 20, Dolphins 17
San Francisco @ Dallas (-10): Cowboys emphatically get back into the playoff mix with a thrashing of the 49ers. Cowboys 35, 49ers 20
Tampa Bay (-8.5) @ Detroit: The Lions came close to a victory Sunday. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen again in the quest for 0-16. Buccaneers 21, Lions 10
Philadelphia (+1) @ Baltimore: Bad line for what should be a great game. Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb should know that ties are indeed a part of the game this week. Eagles 10, Ravens 6
Chicago (-8.5) @ St. Louis: This is one of those games that should be blacked out in its entirety due to the putrid play of these two teams of late — even in Chicago and St. Louis. Bears 27, Rams 10
Minnesota @ Jacksonville (-2.5): This is probably the game that set me over the edge stating that Week 12 is unbeatable. This is a classic matchup of two schizophrenic football teams. Jaguars 28, Vikings 24
Carolina (+1) @ Atlanta: Game of the week? Absolutely. It’ll be interesting to see how Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan holds up against an aggressive Panthers defense. Panthers 23, Falcons 20
Oakland (+9.5) @ Denver: It’s not in the nature of the Broncos to come back and destroy a team (even as bad as the Raiders) one week after stealing a huge road win in Atlanta. Broncos 20, Raiders 14
Washington (-3) @ Seattle: Cross country road trips are usually a killer, but everybody in the Commanders organization should realize how important it is to come out of Seattle a winner. Commanders 30, Seahawks 21
N.Y. Giants (-3) @ Arizona: Here’s a rule of thumb that’s paying off so far this season — take the Giants EVERY week. They are 8-3 against the spread. This should be a fun game to watch. Giants 34, Cardinals 30
Indianapolis (+3) @ San Diego: One of the true joys in my life is the sideline shots of the Chargers bench. Norv Turner has a constant look of “Is this really happening to me?” on his face. Colts 30, Chargers 24
Monday’s game
Green Bay (+2) @ New Orleans: Reggie Bush is expected to return to the Saints lineup and will provide a spark, and the Packers are starting to look like a real contender in the NFC — a position most pundits were quick to give to New Orleans at the start of the season. Packers 27, Saints 26
Chuck’s Week 11 bankroll (started with $250): $532.88, gain of $282.88