InmanRoshi;5063997 said:
In another post of his, I think it's interesting the difference between trend lines of median games started per pick and the Jimmy Johnson valuation trend line.
Jimmy Johnson pic chart pretty badly undervalues the impact mid round pics have, and pretty badly overstates the variation of the 20th pick to the 60th pick.
Games started is a pretty sloppy measurement. Any player drafted in the Top 5 to Top 10 is likely starting their entire rookie contract, deservedly so or not, based simply on the salary that was handed out under the old scale. Any player drafted in the 4th round or below has to be decisively better than expected to start right away.
I'm not sure you could make a case that Jimmy's chart does anything either way based on this comparison. At first glance perhaps but when you consider that the scope of "starting" ranges from Alan Ball to Darrelle Revis, what can you even conclude by saying that a guy is "starting"?
I thought this was a good attempt from the first link in the thread.
It's the Approximate Value of the players selected at that pick. More of an individual performance based measurement but limitations are here as well.
OL grading is an inexact science. PFR does a good job, IMO, of trying to quantify individual OL play but it's almost impossible.
OL scores are calculated in this manner:
- Team offensive scores are calculated.
- OL scores are calculated as a group, (5/11) of total offensive score.
- Individual OL scores are calculated based on games played, started, and position. Then, a multiplier is included for All-Pro, 2nd-Team, and Pro Bowl status.
- From here, the individual OL score is taken relative to the average of all individuals and then multiplied by the total OL score.
Here's a problem. Evan Mathis was graded by PFF as the best OG in the NFL last year. A ridiculous grade over 51. Yanda was #2 with a grade over 24.
Nate Livings had a score of 11 and Bern had a score of -4
Flip over to PFR and here are the AVs for these players.
Mathis: 6
Yanda: 9
Livings: 7
Bern: 7
What does it all mean? Basically, if you are on a good offense you are assumed to have a good OL.
It also means that using AV in the draft value chart means you just accept that however the OL are factoring into the result is likely not a true representation of the value or performance of those players.
A similar process is employed for DL but it includes more performance-based variables because they do exist for the DL. PFR flat out says that it's not an exact science,
The point is: while I do think we need some sort of theory to get us started in certain areas, I won’t be too apologetic about making some arbitrary changes if a strict application of the theory leads us to “wrong” answers
Given that almost half of the first round picks over the last 8 or so drafts have come from OL and DL combined, nobody can really say what is what.
While I do appreciate the attempts that people make at trying to find new charts, I think the outcomes are all relatively the same.....different than traditional but who the hell really knows.
