New asteroid: 1 in 300 chance will hit Earth in 2029

TruBlueCowboy

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There have been a few scares in space over the last few years. So far, any dangerously close asteroids have been ruled out after further analysis but who knows, maybe this is the one that finally hits us? We're due a big hit sometime soon. To give you an idea of how powerful an impact this would be, the crater in Arizona was only a 3.5 megaton explosion. This would be a 1,600 megaton explosion.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/space/12/24/asteroid.ap/index.html

LOS ANGELES, California (AP) -- There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.

There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.

On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."

The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.

"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.

"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.

Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.

Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.

The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.

Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Arizona, and this month from Australia and New Zealand.
 

TruBlueCowboy

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Yeagermeister said:
Where's Harry Stamper when you need him?

:skins:

LOL I had to Google the name to get that joke. ;) Bruce Willis will be what....80.... by the time this hits? I hope he eats his Wheaties. We're gonna need him! :D
 

Tio

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I just don't fear stuff like this. If it was any kind of threat in 2015, it would be eliminated immediatley.
 

TruBlueCowboy

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Tio said:
I just don't fear stuff like this. If it was any kind of threat in 2015, it would be eliminated immediatley.

I caught a Discovery channel program once about realistic solutions to life ending asteroids or comets. That's about the only science education I get these days. LOL The nuclear solution didn't seem like a feasible answer. Some scientists talked about landing a probe on it and using solar sails to divert its path. Basically, it looks like we're screwed if one of those bad boys ever decides to hit Earth. Oh well, at least Congress finally decided to appropriate funds to find the ones that could hit us. Hollywood does wonders I tell ya. None of this stuff was taken seriously until Bruce Willis and Robert Duvall saved the world in their movies. ;)
 

The30YardSlant

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TruBlueCowboy said:
There have been a few scares in space over the last few years. So far, any dangerously close asteroids have been ruled out after further analysis but who knows, maybe this is the one that finally hits us? We're due a big hit sometime soon. To give you an idea of how powerful an impact this would be, the crater in Arizona was only a 3.5 megaton explosion. This would be a 1,600 megaton explosion.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/space/12/24/asteroid.ap/index.html

LOS ANGELES, California (AP) -- There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.

There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.

On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."

The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.

"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.

"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.

Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.

Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.

The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.

Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Arizona, and this month from Australia and New Zealand.

So THIS is how NASA plans on getting more funding.....
 

Cajuncowboy

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Freakin' Great. The year 2029. Right about the time Vinny will consider retiring and we can finally start the 50 year old Henson. Figures.
 

DStely8

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TruBlueCowboy said:
LOL I had to Google the name to get that joke. ;) Bruce Willis will be what....80.... by the time this hits? I hope he eats his Wheaties. We're gonna need him! :D
:D

i had to do the same thing
 

Signals

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So as John Lennon would sing... so this is Christmas...


Good morning and Happy Holidays to all. :D
 

TruBlueCowboy

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Update on Asteroid 2004 MN4. Hopefully, this is not a sign of things to come because the odds of it hitting us have gotten better as more scientists have tracked its path. It was the first asteroid to hit a level 2 on the Torino Scale (1 to 10 scale with 8+ being an imminent collision) and now it has been upgraded to a 4! :eek:

For the Torino Scale, click here: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale1.html

For a link to the udpated tracking, click here:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

December 24 Update: 2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronmers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6%, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale. Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98% chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029.
 

Kangaroo

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Suxs for my kids; but I will be a washed up old bitterman plotting the hit job of Vinny the 90 year old qb still starting under Bill Parcells

That int was not vinny's fault his cane got in the way :D
 
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