NFC Playoff Picture Update 12/31

[VaqueroTD]

Didn't have to wait for ESPN Analytics this week. I confirmed below with the ESPN Playoff Machine, so if something is wrong, their machine is just broken. As I write this Green Bay is winning 23-3 halftime over the Vikings, so I'm assuming a Packers win. Will update tomorrow if that doesn't happen. Happy New Years all! I'm off for the booze! What a damn good Football Weekend! Curse is gone!

Week 18 Schedule Critical games:

• Seahawks @ Cardinals
• Buccaneers @ Panthers
• Vikings @ Lions
• Bears @ Packers
• Falcons @ Saints
• Eagles @ Giants
• Rams @ 49ers
• Cowboys @ Commanders

Seedings For Last Week Scenarios

• #1 SEED - San Francisco 49ers. LOCKED.
• #2 and #3 SEED - Cowboys/Eagles or Lions
  • Cowboys in control.
  • If Cowboys lose, Eagles in control. Loser drops to 5th seed.
  • If Cowboys and Eagles lose and Lions wins, then Lions get 2nd seed. Cowboys get 3rd seed and Eagles gets 5th seed.
• #4 SEED - NFC South LOCKED. Bucs, Saints or Falcons.
  • Buccaneers in control.
  • If Bucs lose, winner of Falcons vs Saints game gets #4.
• #5 SEED - NFC East 2nd Place LOCKED. Cowboys/Eagles.
• #6 and #7 SEED - Rams, Vikings/Packers, Seahawks, NFC South
  • Rams in control of #6.
    • If Packers win tonight, they control #7.
      • If Rams were to lose and Packers win again, Green Bay gets #6, Rams get #7.
      • If Packers win tonight, but lose next week:
        • Seattle controls #7 with a win.
        • If Packers, Seattle lose and Bucs, Falcons WIN:
          • Vikings get #7
        • If Packers, Seattle lose and Bucs, Saints WIN
          • Saints get #7
        • If Packers, Seattle, Bucs lose, then Vikings also get #7.
        • (Could be an error with this one if any team had strength of schedule tie breakers since I didn't pick AFC winners on Playoff Machine)

Few quick things:

• We absolutely WANT that win next week and #2 Seed. This means ONLY the Niners in NFC Championship will NOT be a HOME GAME.
  • We will most likely be facing Packers as #7, especially if they win tonight, but outside shots for Seattle or LA Rams, and VERY small odds for Vikings or Saints.
  • This is what I root for. I want the Cowboys to kick the living %#*$# out of the Packers for all those heartbreaking losses. No Aaron Rodgers, not afraid.
  • If we stay at #2 seed, San Francisco gets lowest remaining seed after first round of games. (Which WILL NOT be us) And we get the second lowest seed remaining as a home game again.
• If we were to drop to #5 Seed, most likely playing the Bucs, but Falcons or Saints could also slip in. It will be an away game, and both Rams and Packers (assuming they are #6 and #7 seeds) will have to get further than first round if we have any shot at a home game in Playoffs second round.
• Looks like there is very small shot at #3 seed too. Which would be a home game with Rams most likely.
• Another reminder, don't get confused by bracket. #1 seed always plays lowest seed at home. Remaining two teams play each other. High chance for a rematch against the Lions.

 

[VaqueroTD]

UPDATE: Green Bay won, and here are odds as of today. Looks like they give LA Rams as much a chance of facing us as Green Bay after next week’s results

I want nothing to do with that Seattle matchup!

 

[VaqueroTD]

21% Cowboys to,reach Super Bowl. Highest it’s been in late season.

 

[VaqueroTD]

‘Reminder, 49res will play team with lowest seed in second round. Next 2 teams square off for other game.

 

[12+88=7]

GB, SF win it's LA
GB, LA win it's GB
CHI, SF win it's Sea

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I didn't realize that If we get there we now face the 49ers in the NFC Championship if we keep the 2 seed. That's the ultimate goal. Gotta snag that 2 seed. Wow. Who the hell saw this coming even a week ago?

So we get 2 home games to start this playoff run? Man this is a hell of an opportunity for the Cowboys right here.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

GB, SF win it's LA
GB, LA win it's GB
CHI, SF win it's Sea

Damn any of these scenarios can happen lol. At home you can't escape any of these teams. All 3 of these teams are going to be a solid test in the wild card.

San Fran won't be playing starters I'm assuming.....I'm going to say Chicago and San Fran win and we get Seattle. I'd prefer if GB, LA win.

 

[Turkish-Cowboy]

Thanks for the details.

So, if the Rams win, we play either the Packers or Seahawks/Saints/Vikings.

If the Rams lose and Packers win, we definitely play the Rams.

If the both the Rams and Packers lose and other outsiders win, is there any chance for any team to get the 6th seed so that the Rams will slide down to 7th?

 

[VaqueroTD]

Damn any of these scenarios can happen lol. At home you can't escape any of these teams. All 3 of these teams are going to be a solid test in the wild card.

San Fran won't be playing starters I'm assuming.....I'm going to say Chicago and San Fran win and we get Seattle. I'd prefer if GB, LA win.

Gotta figure Bears will lose away at Packers. Not too worried we face Seattle which is good because they tore our secondary up.

Not scared of LA or GB. I know LA is one of hottest teams right now but we matchup well with those wonderlic offense kids. All except SF Which for whatever reason able to manhandle us from the whistle.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Thanks for the details.

So, if the Rams win, we play either the Packers or Seahawks/Saints/Vikings.

If the Rams lose and Packers win, we definitely play the Rams.

If the both the Rams and Packers lose and other outsiders win, is there any chance for any team to get the 6th seed so that the Rams will slide down to 7th?

According to ESPN Playoff machine, there is a scenario that Saints and Vikings get in, but like I wrote above, could be wrong because I didn’t pick all games on their machines, just the playoff teams. Can’t really use Analytics either because they don’t list teams win tiny odds. Almost definitely will be LA Rams and GB in that mix with small chance for Seattle to get involved.

 

[Jayinem]

UPDATE: Green Bay won, and here are odds as of today. Looks like they give LA Rams as much a chance of facing us as Green Bay after next week’s results

I want nothing to do with that Seattle matchup!

I wonder why they only give Green Bay a 22% chance of getting #7 but a 44% chance of #6. I'm pretty sure if Rams win they're #6. Yeah they're facing the 49ers but they may rest because they have nothing to play for. How can Seattle have a higher chance at #7 than Packers when Seattle doesn't even control their own destiny and both Green Bay and Seattle can't make the playoffs because Rams have clinched a spot.

 

[RomoIsGod]

I mean a month ago I was saying that I did like Dallas chances to get the 2nd seed. Said Eagles were way overrated and now here we are.

 

[VaqueroTD]

I wonder why they only give Green Bay a 22% chance of getting #7 but a 44% chance of #6. I'm pretty sure if Rams win they're #6. Yeah they're facing the 49ers but they may rest because they have nothing to play for. How can Seattle have a higher chance at #7 than Packers when Seattle doesn't even control their own destiny and both Green Bay and Seattle can't make the playoffs because Rams have clinched a spot.

Not sure how they determine odds of winning certain games but is sometimes difficult to believe. I’m sure home/away, strength schedule, rush and pass, etc all in their determination.

They obviously don’t think Washington has a chance in hell to win next week’s game against us with those odds. LOL

 

[VaqueroTD]

I mean a month ago I was saying that I did like Dallas chances to get the 2nd seed. Said Eagles were way overrated and now here we are.

 

[Frosty]

GB, SF win it's LA
GB, LA win it's GB
CHI, SF win it's Sea

The GB game will have the most effect on the Cowboys, as SF most likely will rest its players

Last scenario,

CHI, LA win and its Sea

 

[jazzcat22]

Do you have the AFC scenarios similar to your OP?

 

[jazzcat22]

I didn't realize that If we get there we now face the 49ers in the NFC Championship if we keep the 2 seed. That's the ultimate goal. Gotta snag that 2 seed. Wow. Who the hell saw this coming even a week ago?

So we get 2 home games to start this playoff run? Man this is a hell of an opportunity for the Cowboys right here.

Who says that SF will get to the NFCCG. We win 2 games, and SF gets knocked out, we host the NFCCG.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Do you have the AFC scenarios similar to your OP?

No I didn’t bother going through their games. I’m sure someone will write it up though today at one of the sports websites.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Who says that SF will get to the NFCCG. We win 2 games, and SF gets knocked out, we host the NFCCG.

I consider them the best in the division but yeah you never know. I will not assume how good or anyone is bad this season we've had 4 different "favorites" in the NFC....at one point Cowboys were a favorite, Eagles were, 49ers were, Lions.....NFC is truly wide open for me.

 

[diamonddelts]

It won't matter in the end. Cowboys offense can barely muster 20 points against any good team. And their run defense can't stop a nose bleed. We know how this time honored story ends.