KJJ
You Have an Axe to Grind
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The chart you're dismissing is from 2002-2018 4th down plays. What dramatic changes have occurred offensively since 2018 that would render that data useless?
In 2019 teams made 25 attempts on 4th and 15. They failed on 19 of them. Again, where is this "high rate" going to come from?
As the game evolves offenses adjust. We’re seeing more and more 4000 yard passers and some 5000 yard passers. In 2019 most of those teams that tried those 4th and 15s were probably getting their butts handed to them. I believe the chances of converting a 4th and 15 are a lot better in a competitive one score game. A lot of it comes down to how you’re playing that day. If you’ve been moving the ball throughout the day and have a chance to win or tie a game your odds of converting a 4th and 15 are pretty good.