NFL.com Draft Value of Cowboys Picks

Jumbo075

Jumbo075

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Here are how the Cowboys picks compare to their ranking on the NFL.com website Prospect list:
  • #19 LB Leighton Vander Esch – NFL.com rank #13 (1st round), Grade = 6.25 (+6)
  • #50 OL Connor Williams – NFL.com rank #40 (2nd round), Grade = 5.87 (+10)
  • #81 WR Michael Gallup – NFL.com rank #79 (3rd round), Grade = 5.72 (+2)
  • #116 DE Dorance Armstrong – NFL.com rank #137 (4th round), Grade = 5.55 (-21)
  • #137 TE Dalton Schultz – NFL.com rank #85 (3rd round), Grade =5.70 (+52)
  • #171 QB Mike White - NFL.com rank #109 (4th round), Grade 5.60 (+62)
    • #173 FB Jamize Olawale & pick #192 - from trade of pick to Raiders
    • #192 RB Tavon Austin - from traded of pick to Rams
  • #193 OLB Chris Covington - NFL.com rank #396 (Undrafted), Grade = 4.97 (-203)
  • #208 WR Cedric Wilson - NFL.com rank #168 (5th round), Grade =5.46 (+40)
  • #236 RB Bo Scarbrough - NFL.com rank #150 (5th round), Grade = 5.50 (+86)
    • DT Jihad Ward - from trade of WR Ryan Switzer to Raiders
Cowboys used pick #173 to get both a veteran Fullback and veteran backup Running Back. Pretty good use of a 5th round pick, in my humble opinion.

On 7 of the 9 picks the Cowboys made, they drafted a player ranked higher than their pick. On only two of the picks did they reach for a player, and only pick #208 was a big reach for a player the Cowboys obviously had a different opinion on than others.

Even if you think the Cowboys should have drafted at other positions, for the players they did take they got good value.

PROJECTED DRAFT VALUE - per NFL.com
  • 1st rd - Leighton Vander Esch #13
  • 2nd rd - Connor Williams #40
  • 3rd rd - Michael Gallup #79, Dalton Schultz #85
  • 4th rd - Mike White #109, Dorance Armstrong #137
  • 5th rd - Bo Scarbrough #150, Cedric Wilson #168
  • Undrafted - Chris Covington #396
 
Some people were really high on LVE. I saw him at pick 21 or so. I loved the pick though considering our need at LB.
 
Jumbo075 said:
Here are how the Cowboys picks compare to their ranking on the NFL.com website Prospect list:
  • #19 LB Leighton Vander Esch – NFL.com rank #13 (1st round), Grade = 6.25 (+6)
  • #50 OL Connor Williams – NFL.com rank #40 (2nd round), Grade = 5.87 (+10)
  • #81 WR Michael Gallup – NFL.com rank #79 (3rd round), Grade = 5.72 (+2)
  • #116 DE Dorance Armstrong – NFL.com rank #137 (4th round), Grade = 5.55 (-21)
  • #137 TE Dalton Schultz – NFL.com rank #85 (3rd round), Grade =5.70 (+52)
  • #171 QB Mike White - NFL.com rank #109 (4th round), Grade 5.60 (+62)
    • #173 FB Jamize Olawale & pick #192 - from trade of pick to Raiders
    • #192 RB Tavon Austin - from traded of pick to Rams
  • #193 OLB Chris Covington - NFL.com rank #396 (Undrafted), Grade = 4.97 (-203)
  • #208 WR Cedric Wilson - NFL.com rank #168 (5th round), Grade =5.46 (+40)
  • #236 RB Bo Scarbrough - NFL.com rank #150 (5th round), Grade = 5.50 (+86)
    • DT Jihad Ward - from trade of WR Ryan Switzer to Raiders
Cowboys used pick #173 to get both a veteran Fullback and veteran backup Running Back. Pretty good use of a 5th round pick, in my humble opinion.

On 7 of the 9 picks the Cowboys made, they drafted a player ranked higher than their pick. On only two of the picks did they reach for a player, and only pick #208 was a big reach for a player the Cowboys obviously had a different opinion on than others.

Even if you think the Cowboys should have drafted at other positions, for the players they did take they got good value.

PROJECTED DRAFT VALUE - per NFL.com
  • 1st rd - Leighton Vander Esch #13
  • 2nd rd - Connor Williams #40
  • 3rd rd - Michael Gallup #79, Dalton Schultz #85
  • 4th rd - Mike White #109, Dorance Armstrong #137
  • 5th rd - Bo Scarbrough #150, Cedric Wilson #168
  • Undrafted - Chris Covington #396
Click to expand...

Awesome work jumbo, did you by chance scope any of the team's that got great grades? I was shocked when I saw we were ranked 2nd to last on the nfl.com ranking piece
 
buybuydandavis said:
Apparently not. I don't see his estimated draft rank there.
Click to expand...

Sort the grade from high to low and count down is where he got the rank. Not really a draft position rank more so than a grade rank. Actually it is already sorted that way (It's 20 a page by the way - to make things easier).
 
Last edited:
irishline said:
Sort the grade from high to low and count down is where he got the rank. Not really a draft position rank more so than a grade rank. Actually it is already sorted that way (It's 20 a page by the way - to make things easier).
Click to expand...

Thanks. Thought I was going blind.

But as you note, grade rank doesn't really translate to value rank, as they are evaluations of likely success at a position, which factors out the inherent value of the position.

I considered LVE late first, early second, and think that was closer to consensus than 12. Closer, by a mile, particularly as measured by draft value. Very little experience or tape, maybe a health issue, and not a premier position.

But I see lots of possibilities with him, and certainly like the LB group now. Ideal would be to keep Lee at a reduced salary instead of letting him leave in 2020, and keep this core intact for years to come.
 
buybuydandavis said:
Thanks. Thought I was going blind.

But as you note, grade rank doesn't really translate to value rank, as they are evaluations of likely success at a position, which factors out the inherent value of the position.

I considered LVE late first, early second, and think that was closer to consensus than 12. Closer, by a mile, particularly as measured by draft value. Very little experience or tape, maybe a health issue, and not a premier position.

But I see lots of possibilities with him, and certainly like the LB group now. Ideal would be to keep Lee at a reduced salary instead of letting him leave in 2020, and keep this core intact for years to come.
Click to expand...

I agree with this. Overaul I think the values are pretty good but LVE as a top 15 talent is kind of a joke IMO. Late 1st/Early 2nd is a lot more realistic.

Regardless, we still did a great job of maximizing value.
 
Jipper said:
Awesome work jumbo, did you by chance scope any of the team's that got great grades? I was shocked when I saw we were ranked 2nd to last on the nfl.com ranking piece
Click to expand...


The one I saw on nfl.com gave us straight A's, but it obviously doesn't matter at all. They grade us poorly every single year.

Poor grade this year is probably because we didn't take a WR in round 1. Personally, I am happy we did not.
 
FaSho said:
The one I saw on nfl.com gave us straight A's, but it obviously doesn't matter at all. They grade us poorly every single year.

Poor grade this year is probably because we didn't take a WR in round 1. Personally, I am happy we did not.
Click to expand...

I agree 100%....what was so funny was the tv personalities kept pushing for us to take a wr and then a TE and made up the fake drama that Philly punked us....williams was by far the better pick at that position in the draft anyways.
 
Jumbo075 said:
Here are how the Cowboys picks compare to their ranking on the NFL.com website Prospect list:
  • #19 LB Leighton Vander Esch – NFL.com rank #13 (1st round), Grade = 6.25 (+6)
  • #50 OL Connor Williams – NFL.com rank #40 (2nd round), Grade = 5.87 (+10)
  • #81 WR Michael Gallup – NFL.com rank #79 (3rd round), Grade = 5.72 (+2)
  • #116 DE Dorance Armstrong – NFL.com rank #137 (4th round), Grade = 5.55 (-21)
  • #137 TE Dalton Schultz – NFL.com rank #85 (3rd round), Grade =5.70 (+52)
  • #171 QB Mike White - NFL.com rank #109 (4th round), Grade 5.60 (+62)
    • #173 FB Jamize Olawale & pick #192 - from trade of pick to Raiders
    • #192 RB Tavon Austin - from traded of pick to Rams
  • #193 OLB Chris Covington - NFL.com rank #396 (Undrafted), Grade = 4.97 (-203)
  • #208 WR Cedric Wilson - NFL.com rank #168 (5th round), Grade =5.46 (+40)
  • #236 RB Bo Scarbrough - NFL.com rank #150 (5th round), Grade = 5.50 (+86)
    • DT Jihad Ward - from trade of WR Ryan Switzer to Raiders
Cowboys used pick #173 to get both a veteran Fullback and veteran backup Running Back. Pretty good use of a 5th round pick, in my humble opinion.

On 7 of the 9 picks the Cowboys made, they drafted a player ranked higher than their pick. On only two of the picks did they reach for a player, and only pick #208 was a big reach for a player the Cowboys obviously had a different opinion on than others.

Even if you think the Cowboys should have drafted at other positions, for the players they did take they got good value.

PROJECTED DRAFT VALUE - per NFL.com
  • 1st rd - Leighton Vander Esch #13
  • 2nd rd - Connor Williams #40
  • 3rd rd - Michael Gallup #79, Dalton Schultz #85
  • 4th rd - Mike White #109, Dorance Armstrong #137
  • 5th rd - Bo Scarbrough #150, Cedric Wilson #168
  • Undrafted - Chris Covington #396
Click to expand...
If I were looking to truly grade out talent acquisition in the draft I'd use a metric like player grade. I wouldn't count players below 5.0 at all and I'd add up the total above 5.0 for each player.
For instance:
LVE is worth 1.25 points. Connor Williams worth .87 points et al.
Then you add that up and you get the total draft points.
That'd be my player acquisition score. Then if I wanted to be predictive I'd also look at the team and assign some grade between .1 and .5 for expected impact as a rookie.
I might give both LVE and CWill .3 for instance as I expect them to start but it's not a surefire lock.
Add all that crap up for a total draft team grade and I'd be pretty happy that i'd quantified the team's draft performance fairly well.
 
Jumbo075 said:
Here are how the Cowboys picks compare to their ranking on the NFL.com website Prospect list:
  • #19 LB Leighton Vander Esch – NFL.com rank #13 (1st round), Grade = 6.25 (+6)
  • #50 OL Connor Williams – NFL.com rank #40 (2nd round), Grade = 5.87 (+10)
  • #81 WR Michael Gallup – NFL.com rank #79 (3rd round), Grade = 5.72 (+2)
  • #116 DE Dorance Armstrong – NFL.com rank #137 (4th round), Grade = 5.55 (-21)
  • #137 TE Dalton Schultz – NFL.com rank #85 (3rd round), Grade =5.70 (+52)
  • #171 QB Mike White - NFL.com rank #109 (4th round), Grade 5.60 (+62)
    • #173 FB Jamize Olawale & pick #192 - from trade of pick to Raiders
    • #192 RB Tavon Austin - from traded of pick to Rams
  • #193 OLB Chris Covington - NFL.com rank #396 (Undrafted), Grade = 4.97 (-203)
  • #208 WR Cedric Wilson - NFL.com rank #168 (5th round), Grade =5.46 (+40)
  • #236 RB Bo Scarbrough - NFL.com rank #150 (5th round), Grade = 5.50 (+86)
    • DT Jihad Ward - from trade of WR Ryan Switzer to Raiders
Cowboys used pick #173 to get both a veteran Fullback and veteran backup Running Back. Pretty good use of a 5th round pick, in my humble opinion.

On 7 of the 9 picks the Cowboys made, they drafted a player ranked higher than their pick. On only two of the picks did they reach for a player, and only pick #208 was a big reach for a player the Cowboys obviously had a different opinion on than others.

Even if you think the Cowboys should have drafted at other positions, for the players they did take they got good value.

PROJECTED DRAFT VALUE - per NFL.com
  • 1st rd - Leighton Vander Esch #13
  • 2nd rd - Connor Williams #40
  • 3rd rd - Michael Gallup #79, Dalton Schultz #85
  • 4th rd - Mike White #109, Dorance Armstrong #137
  • 5th rd - Bo Scarbrough #150, Cedric Wilson #168
  • Undrafted - Chris Covington #396
Click to expand...

I think Dorrance Armstrong will be better than they rated but I think Covington was a reach and didn't feel the need for Cedric Wilson
 
buybuydandavis said:
Apparently not. I don't see his estimated draft rank there.

But I certainly don't recall the draft telecast talking up how LVE was supposedly falling so far.
Click to expand...

Sort the list by "Grade" - he has the 13th highest grade.
 
Jipper said:
Awesome work jumbo, did you by chance scope any of the team's that got great grades? I was shocked when I saw we were ranked 2nd to last on the nfl.com ranking piece
Click to expand...

IIRC, that was ranking teams most improved by the draft - not how well they did drafting the best value with their picks.
 
garyv said:
I think Dorrance Armstrong will be better than they rated but I think Covington was a reach and didn't feel the need for Cedric Wilson
Click to expand...
Covington is sort of a Hitchens type LB. He just isn't going to wow anyone. But could end up being solid and scrappy. Even Armstrong has similarities to Tank Lawrence coming out.
 
Other than Evans over Vander Esch that I have seen some want, I didn't see any alternatives being tossed around except pet cats.

Lost a LB, OL and WR and found all 3 in the first 3 picks and Austin could end up being a real plum in this offense.

The question is are we better, worse or the same as we were ending the 2017 season? I do believe we are better on the OL and at RB but those are the only two areas I feel that way about. We could be worse at WR and TE and the same on the D. I still think that LB corps is a problem area and have no problem with the selection of Vander Esch but if Smith doesn't improve and Lee misses any games, we're in trouble.
 
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